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Thu, 22nd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “March 11, 2017” Day

Greece : Prospects for deal in bailout talks get more distant

After yet another round of inconclusive bailout talks in Athens, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he believed a comprehensive deal with creditors could be reached by April while taking a dig at the International Monetary Fund over its tough stance on labor rights.

In comments to reporters at the end of a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels, Tsipras said he believed a technical-level agreement could still be reached in time for a March 20 Eurogroup, with a broader accord, including the specification of medium-term debt relief measures, coming in April.

Tsipras indicated, however, that tough talks on collective wage bargaining would be harder to conclude. “That issue can’t be solved at the technical level. There’s a disagreement,” he said, adding that the IMF must understand that Greece is a European country and that non-European labor models cannot be imposed on it.

In a related development, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said Tsipras asked the Fund “to stand by Greece” in its third bailout program.

“To commit to Greece, as the Greek prime minister has requested, in addition to reforms, the debt should be sustainable,” Lagarde told French newspaper Le Parisien in an interview.

Oil Price to Reach $58-60 by June 30, $62-65 by Year End – Lukoil Board Member

Lukoil and PetroChina Board of Directors Member Richard Matzke claims that the price of oil will reach as much as $60 dollars per barrel by the end of June and will be as high as $65 dollars per barrel by the end of the year if stakeholders continue implementing the output reduction deal.

The price of oil will reach as much as $60 dollars per barrel by the end of June and will be as high as $65 dollars per barrel by the end of the year if stakeholders continue implementing the output reduction deal, Lukoil and PetroChina Board of Directors Member Richard Matzke told Sputnik.

“I believe when the present dust settles we will have a $58-60 price by June 31 and $62-65 by December 31,” Matzke said.

The former Chevron vice chairman noted that his position is based on keeping his “ears open” rather than “massive detailed research.”

In November 2016, OPEC member states reached an agreement to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day for the first half of 2017 to support global oil prices.

The accord was supported by 11 non-OPEC states, including Russia, which had joined the deal by promising to reduce oil output by 558,000 barrels per day.

The deal caused the price of crude oil to climb to $55-56 per barrel, boosting optimism in the energy market.

The agreement was reached for a six-month period with a possibility to extend it.

Bitcoin Crashes Below $1000 After SEC Rejects ETF -Full Text

fter much anticipation (and a spike to record highs earlier today), The SEC has decided to reject the Winklevoss application for a Bitcoin ETF.

The SEC premise appears to be the unregulated natuire of the underlying:

 Based on the record before it, the Commission believes that the significant markets for bitcoin are unregulated.

 Therefore, as the Exchange has not entered into, and would currently be unable to enter into, the type of surveillance-sharing agreement that has been in place with respect to all previously approved commodity-trust ETPs—agreements that help address concerns about the potential for fraudulent or manipulative acts and practices in this market – the Commission does not find the proposed rule change to be consistent with the Exchange Act.

What goes up (to $1327) comes down hard to $978!

Dropping to one-month lows…

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SEC Bitcoin ETF Rejection by zerohedge on Scribd

EUR/CHF hits the highest since December 8. Mystery abounds.

EUR/USD up almost 100 pips today

Here is one theory:

The Eurozone economy is out of the deflationary-crisis mode. Draghi drove down government borrowing costs and the economy is beginning to turn the corner. In addition, yesterday he signaled that policy is shifting towards neutral.

Here is another theory:

Eurozone political risks are as high as ever. There is an election on Wednesday on the Netherlands that will almost certainly end in gridlock. That will be followed by a vote in France at the end of April where one of the leading candidates wants to quit the euro.

On top of that, sight deposit data shows recent SNB intervention. FX holdings at the central bank were up 3.8% in February, the biggest rise since December 2014.

A third theory:

The SNB is preparing to do more, in the form of cutting rates deeper and the insiders are getting their money out of franc.

The market is laser-focused on the Fed decision on March 15, but about 14 hours later, the SNB decision could steal the show

Euro climbs to 3-week high against dollar on rate speculation

The euro climbed to its strongest level against the dollar since mid-February as the markets reassessed the odds of a December rate rise by the European Central Bank.

A day after mildly hawkish comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi helped send the single currency higher, the euro tacked on another 0.9 per cent to hit a three week high of $1.0673 following a report that the ECB had discussed whether rates could rise before it ends its bond buying programme.

However, two people familiar with the discussions denied there had been any meaningful debate over the issue. One person said some members are keen for the council to consider raising the deposit rate, now at minus 0.4 per cent, before it ends its quantitative easing programme.

Against the pound, the euro was up 1 per cent at €1.1393 – a level last seen in mid-January. The currency also firmed more than 1 per cent against the Japanese yen at 122.83.

Baker Hughes US oil rig count 617 vs 609 prior

US oil and gas drilling data from Baker Hughes

  • Prior was 609
  • Eighth week in a row of rising rigs
  • Gas rigs 151 vs 146 prior
  • Total rigs at 768 vs 756 prior

As if oil hadn’t had enough bad news this week. WTI staged a rally earlier today but it’s been obliterated and crude is down almost 2% in the third day of heavy selling.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 44 points .S&P 500 up 8 points

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 7.73 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,372.60. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 44.79 points, or 0.2 percent, to 20,902.98. The Nasdaq composite added 22.92 points, or 0.4 percent, to 5,861.73.

Stocks had mostly fallen since March 1, the day indexes soared to their most recent record highs.

Overall it was a slow week for stocks. The current bull market had its eighth anniversary, but six-week winning streaks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended, and the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks took its biggest loss in three months.

U.S. employers added 235,000 jobs in February, according to the Department of Labor. The gains in hiring and pay, along with higher consumer and business confidence since the November election, could lift spending and investment in coming months and accelerate economic growth.

A poor jobs report was probably the last thing that could have stopped the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week.