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Sun, 30th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “March 13, 2017” Day

Trader Warns: Fed Rate Hike Will Be The “Death Knell” For Reflation Trades

Thanks to commodities, Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore warns that the Fed meeting is more likely to be the death knell for reflation trades rather than mark their moment of victory.

This week is set to provide confirmation that we’re in the midst of a true tightening cycle in the U.S., with rate hikes in consecutive quarters for the first time since 2006.

10-year Treasury yields hover just below the two-year high, but I don’t see them breaking higher in an environment where commodity prices are plunging.

 

How to trade the pound when Article 50 is triggered

Article 50 is coming. How to trade GBP when the headlines hit

Article 50 has hung like a anvil around the neck of the pound over the past eight months. The looming exit from the EU was an uncertainty and potential headline shock that stunted bounces in cable.

But as dismal as the bounces have been, there have been a series of higher lows since October. That’s often the sign that something is trying to carve out a bottom.

On top of that, UK data has been much better than economists assumed they would be after the vote.

It’s like the election of Donald Trump. It all has the feeling of something ominous but once it happens, the market can start to look ahead and see things a bit more constructively.

Two things make me believe that a short squeeze could be coming. One is the weekly CFTC positioning data. Obviously, it’s not a definitive picture of market positioning but it’s a good snapshot and shows a crowded short trade.

Second is the bump today. There’s no great reason for it. Scotland is making more waves about another referendum. I think it’s some of those shorts worried about a reversal after Article 50.

How to trade it

Asian universities move up in world rankings

One of the world’s leading university ranking systems has found significant improvement in Asia’s tertiary education institutions over the past year, although long-established Western bodies continue to dominate the field in most key academic subjects. 

QS Quacquarelli Symonds, a London-based group, published its 2017 rankings covering 1,127 universities from 74 countries across 46 subjects. Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, described as “perennial rivals” by QS, led all universities in the field in 15 and 12 subjects, respectively. 

But the prominence of Asian universities has been increasing in recent years. While elite U.S. and European institutions are likely to remain at the top of the rankings in the near future, more Asian universities nonetheless are moving up the list, as regional economies grow and education spending increases.

“It seems certain that Asia’s leading institutions will continue to strongly displace the second tier of North American and European institutions,” said QS research director Ben Sowter.

The rankings are based on academic paper citations as well as on survey responses from 74,651 academics and 40,643 employers worldwide.

According to the QS report, the best Asian performers were from China, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore, although universities in the Philippines also made rapid progress lower down the list.

Nato calls for calm in Turkey-Netherlands spat

Nato has called for calm in the escalating diplomatic row between Ankara and the Hague over the refusal of the Dutch authorities to allow Turkish ministers to campaign in the Netherlands for a constitutional overhaul in Turkey.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s top civilian, told reporters in Brussels he had been in contact with the Dutch and Turkish governments during a weekend in which Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, accused the Netherlands of behaving like Nazis.

The Netherlands had refused to allow Turkey’s foreign minister to enter the country for a political rally in support of constitutional changes that will boost Mr Erdogan’s powers in a looming April referendum. The two countries are members of Nato, prompting concern relations within the alliance that it could be destabilised as a result of the row.

“Therefore I will encourage all allies to show mutual respect, to be calm and to have a measured approach, to contribute to de-escalate the tensions and defuse tensions and de-escalate the situation.”

$21,714 For Every Man, Woman And Child In The World – This Global Debt Bomb Is Ready To Explode

According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt has grown to a staggering grand total of 152 trillion dollars.  Other estimates put that figure closer to 200 trillion dollars, but for the purposes of this article let’s use the more conservative number.  If you take 152 trillion dollars and divide it by the seven billion people living on the planet, you get $21,714, which would be the share of that debt for every man, woman and child in the world if it was divided up equally.

So if you have a family of four, your family’s share of the global debt load would be $86,856.

Nikkei 225 closes up +0.15% at 19,633.75

Japanese equities closing just in positive territory in a quiet session 13 March

  • high 19656.48
  • low 19531.51
  • Topix +0.22% at 1577.40
  • USDJPY 114.70 just off session lows

Expect bids/demand into 114.50 with initial offers/res 114.85 115.00