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Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “March 16, 2017” Day

European Indices :Closed in Deep Green

Up. Up.Up

The provisional closes for the major European stocks are showing solid gains.
  • Eurostoxx 600 up 0.6%
  • UK FTSE up 0.6%
  • German Dax up 0.6%
  • France’s Cac up 0.5%
  • Spains IBEX up 1.8%
  • Portugal PS120 up 0.7%
  • Italy MIB up 1.7%
In the debt market in Europe, 10 year yields are higher.
  • Germany 0.448%, +3 bp
  • France 1.09%, +5 bp
  • Italy 2.359% +5.7 bp
  • UK 1.248%, +3.7 bp
  • Spain 1.893% +5.3 bp
US stocks are rebounding to unchanged levels for the major indices.
  • S&P is down -2 points or -0.08%
  • Nasdaq is now up by 2 points or 0.04%
  • Dow is down 4 points or -0.02%
In the US Debt market, the 10 year yield is up 3 bp to 2.523%

You don’t even need to beat the market to make a billion

Forbes on 2016 hedge fund performance

The average hedge fund returned 5.6% last year compared to 12% for the S&P 500 but that doesn’t mean the managers of the SPY ETF earned the most.

Forbes put together a list of the hedge fund managers who earned the most in 2016 and the results probably won’t surprise you. The familiar names are there and the paychecks are out-of-sight.

  1. James Simons – Renaissance Technologies $1.5 billion
  2. Michael Platt – BlueCrest $1.5 billion
  3. Ray Dalio – Bridgewater $1.4 billion
  4. David Tepper – Appaloosa $750 million
  5. Ken Griffith – Citadel $500 million
  6. Dan Loeb – Third Point $400 million
  7. Paul Singer – Elliott $400 million
  8. David Shaw – DE Shaw $400 million
  9. John Overdeck – Two Sigman $375 million
  10. David Sieger – Two Sigman $375 million
  11. Michael Hintze CQS $325 million
  12. San Druckenmillier – Duquesne $300 million
  13. Brett Ichan – Ichan Capital $280 million

Trump Releases His First Budget Blueprint: Here Are The Winners And Losers

Update: echoing comments made by Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the top House Democrat said that the Trump budget proposal is “dead on arrival.

Today at 7am, Trump released his “skinny budget”, his administration’s first federal budget blueprint revealing the President’s plan to dramatically reduce the size of the government. As previewed last night, the document calls for deep cuts at departments and agencies that would eliminate entire programs and slash the size of the federal workforce. It also proposes a $54 billion increase in defense spending, which the White House says will be offset by the other cuts.

“This is the ‘America First’ budget,” said White House budget director Mick Mulvaney, a former South Carolina congressman who made a name for himself as a spending hawk before Trump plucked him for his Cabinet, adding that “if he said it in the campaign, it’s in the budget.”

In a proposal with many losers, the Environmental Protection Agency and State Department stand out as targets for the biggest spending reductions. Funding would disappear altogether for 19 independent bodies that count on federal money for public broadcasting, the arts and regional issues from Alaska to Appalachia. Trump’s budget outline is a bare-bones plan covering just “discretionary” spending for the 2018 fiscal year starting on Oct. 1. It is the first volley in what is expected to be an intense battle over spending in coming months in Congress, which holds the federal purse strings and seldom approves presidents’ budget plans.

Trump wants to spend $54 billion more on defense, put a down payment on his border wall, and breathe life into a few other campaign promises. His initial budget outline does not incorporate his promise to pour $1 trillion into roads, bridges, airports and other infrastructure projects.  The budget directs several agencies to shift resources toward fighting terrorism and cybercrime, enforcing sanctions, cracking down on illegal immigration and preventing government waste.

The White House has said the infrastructure plan is still to come.

Greenback Consolidates Losses as Yields Stabilize

The US dollar remained under pressure in Asia following the disappointment that the FOMC did not signal a more aggressive stance, even though its delivered the nearly universally expected 25 bp rate hike.  News that the populist-nationalist Freedom Party did worse than expected in the Dutch elections also helped underpin the euro, which rose to nearly $1.0750 from a low close to $1.06 yesterday.  European activity has seen the dollar recover a little, but the tone still seems fragile, even though US interest rates have stabilized and the 10-year Treasury yield is back above the 2.50% level. 
The US premium over Germany on two-year money peaked a week ago near 2.23.  After the US yield fell in response to the Fed’s move, the spread finished near 2.12%, from which it has not moved far.  Initial euro support has been found a little above $1.07.  The first retracement target of the run-up is a little below there at $1.0690.  The other retracement targets are seen near $1.0675 and $1.0655. 
Few expected the Wilders in the Netherlands to have a say in the next Dutch government.  He drew about 13% of the vote and will hold about 20 seats, which is five more than currently.  Prime Minister Rutte’s party appears to have received the most votes and 33 seats, down from 41.  The other coalition partners did worse.  In particular, the disastrous showing of Labor means that Dijsselbloem, the current finance minister and head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers is unlikely to hold his post.  Labor may have less than 10 seats in the new parliament, down from 38.  The other coalition partner, Liberals, lost eight seats.  

IMF Paris office targeted in suspected letter bomb attack

One person has been injured in a suspected letter bomb attack at the International Monetary Fund’s office in Paris.

A spokesperson for the police said an envelope sent to the building exploded and injured one person on Thursday. Several people were also evacuated from the building as a precaution.

It comes a day after an explosive package was found at the offices of Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. Berlin police said on Wednesday the package contained an “explosive mix” that was designed to cause “severe injuries”. A Greek militant group claimed responsibility for the parcel bomb.

I have been informed about the explosion in the IMF’s Paris office, which caused injuries to one of our staff.

I have been in touch with the office, and my compassion goes to the colleagues there. I condemn this cowardly act of violence and reaffirm the IMF’s resolve to continue our work in line with our mandate.

We are working closely with the French authorities to investigate this incident and ensure the safety of our staff.

France is already on high alert after a series of terror attacks in recent years, including the November 2015 assaults that left 130 people dead and a truck attack in Nice in July that killed more than 80 people.

SNB leaves rates unchanged at March 2017 meeting

Swiss National Bank leaves rates unchanged at March 2017 monetary policy meeting

  • 3 month LIBOR lower target range -1.25%
  • 3 month LIBOR upper target range -0.25%
  • Sight deposit rate -0.75%

All as expected.

  • Will remain active in FX market as necessary
  • Swiss Franc significantly overvalued
  • Swiss forecasts is marked by considerable uncertainty from international risks
  • Raises 2017 CPI forecast to 0.3% vs 0.1% in Dec
  • 2018 CPI 0.4% vs 0.5% prior
  • 2019 CPI 1.1%
  • Maintains 2017 GDP at “roughly” 1.5%

On June 1st The Deep State Will Move To Overthrow Trump

On Wednesday, March 15, 2017 the U.S. government once again hit its debt ceiling. In short, this means that until Congress raises the ceiling, the government will be unable to borrow more money. If you remember the last time this happened, there were weeks of posturing by Republicans and Democrats while some government services started shutting down. After much deliberation and negotiation the debt ceiling was eventually raised and collapse was avoided.

But this time around we may see a very different set of events play out. If it isn’t clear to you just yet, President Trump is under attack from all sides. Democrats, the media and even members of his own Party want to see him fail. But perhaps more importantly, it is the shadow operators known as “The Deep State” who may take this opportunity to lay the blame for decades of machinations at Trump’s feet.

These shadow forces have been at work manipulating everything from the global economy to the political affairs of sovereign nations.

While March 15th is the day we hit our debt ceiling, June 1st, 2017 is the real date to watch. That’s the day the Deep State may finally pull the trigger:

And what better way to do that then to collapse the economy?

Establishment Republicans and Democrats hate trump… many want to see him fail… even if it means a real systematic crisis for the nation.. in fact, many will even see this as a crisis to get rid of the President… to blame him for the last 30 years of mismanaging the country’s finances and be able to rebuke the voters who elected the President with a national mess… Trump and his supporters will be blamed and take the fall… this is the secret plan

The following report from Wealth Research Group explains how and why it will all go down: