Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “April 4, 2017” Day

Richmond Fed President Lacker Resigns After Admitting He Leaked Confidential Fed Information

We can now close the case on who leaked that confidential, market-moving data to Medley global back in 2012: it was Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker, who previously was expected to retire in October, and  is resigning immediately.

In a statement, Lacker confirms he revealed confidential FOMC information to Medley Global and that he lied to the Fed’s general counsel on at least two occasions. His full statement is below: 

Statement Of Dr. Jeffrey Lacker 

During the past 13 years it has been my privilege to serve as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. It has also been an honor to contribute to the development of our nation’s monetary policy as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”).

 While transparency of the monetary policy process is important, equally important are the confidentiality policies that protect the internal deliberations of the FOMC and ensure the integrity of our financial markets. The Federal Reserve’s confidentiality policies seek to guide participants in maintaining the balance between transparency and confidentiality. The FOMC has had in place for many years two specific policies relating to confidentiality. the FOMC Policy on External Communications of Committee Participants (the “External Communications Policy-) and the Program for Security of FOMC Information (the “Information Security Policy”). 

In 2012, my conduct was inconsistent with those important confidentiality policies. Specifically, on October 2, 2012, I spoke by phone with an analyst (“the Analyst”) concerning the September 2012 meeting of the FOMC. The Analyst authors reports on Federal Reserve matters on behalf of Medley Global Advisors (“Medley’). Medley publishes macro-economic policy intelligence for institutions such as hedge funds and asset managers and is owned by the Financial Times Limited. 

Brazil Reports 14.6% Jump In February Oil Output, Exports Almost Double

Brazilian oil output in February was 14.6 percent higher year-over-year, according to the latest data released by ANP, the South American country’s petroleum regulator.

February production touched 2.676 million barrels per day, an ANP statement said, adding that natural gas output also rose 9.2 percent compared to the same month last year.

Figures released earlier in March from the nation’s Trade Ministry said that oil exports had jumped 94 percent year-over-year in February at 45.7 million barrels – a figure that topped the January 2017 record by 12 percent.

he surge in oil exports was a function of higher production from the offshore areas in Brazilian waters, where huge oil finds were made in the pre-salt and sub-salt layers in the past few years.


Japan’s real GDP likely up 2% in February: JCER

Japanese real gross domestic product rose 2% on the month in February, the Japan Center for Economic Research estimated Tuesday.

The second straight month of growth was driven by a 6.4% jump in exports as automobiles and other products scored sharp gains.

 Consumer spending inched up 0.2%, buoyed by strong sales of new cars.

Housing investment climbed 2.7%. But capital spending fell 1.1%, partly on sluggish investment in machinery.

Trump’s infrastructure Bill may be more than $1tn

Guess who saying so? 😉

  • Is very happy about the trade deficit numbers (we’ll assume he means today’s report rather than the deficit overall 😉  )
  • We have to do better on the trade deficit with China (lucky he’s got the Chinese top boy coming over then isn’t it?)
  • Will discuss North Korea with Xi in Florida (maybe he wants to build a golf course there)

And that’s about all I can be bothered with. The dollar isn’t impressed as it weakens further from the recent high. 110.50 trades.

Amazon Stock $100 Away From Making Jeff Bezos World’s Richest Man

Last Thursday, when AMZN stock – currently trading at some ridiculous four or more digit P/E multiple  – made its latest spurt higher, we reported that as a result of the move, Jeff Bezos was now richer than Warren Buffett and fast approaching Bill Gates.

As a reminder, just last Wednesday Bezos added $1.5 billion to his net worth, the day after the e-commerce giant announced it will buy Dubai-based online retailer Souq.com, and has added over $7 billion since the global equities rally began following the election of Donald Trump. As of last week, Bezos had a net worth of $75.6 billion based on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. That’s $700 million more than Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s Buffett and $1.3 billion above Ortega, the founder of Inditex SA and Europe’s richest person.

That said, as of last Thursday, Bezos remained just over $10 billion behind Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, the world’s richest person with $86 billion.

But not for long, because fast forward less than a week later, when following a number of more sellside upgrades, Bezos is nearly there.

The latest catalyst: a “research” report from BMO’s Daniel Salmon who upgraded the company to BMO’s Top Pick, boosting his price target from $900 to $1,200. The alleged catalyst: Amazon is next set to challenge Google on its advertising business, to wit:

Dr Reddy’s says FDA raises fresh concerns at Srikakulam drug plant

India’s Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd said on Tuesday that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has outlined two more concerns with the company’s Srikakulam drug-making plant after an inspection of the facility.

Dr Reddy’s, which derives a majority of its sales from the United States, said in statement that it had received an inspection letter known as ‘form 483’ from the FDA about the Srikakulam plant and was addressing the concerns.

It did not say what the FDA observations were, and the FDA typically does not make such letters public. The Srikakulam plant was one of Dr Reddy’s main facilities for producing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) but production was hit after the FDA issued a warning over inadequate quality control practices there in 2015.(reut.rs/2o5AOfa)

India’s second-biggest drugmaker by sales has said it has since been working on improving its processes at the plant, but in the meantime some of its other important facilities have also faced FDA restrictions over similar problems.

‘Pink Star’ diamond dazzles at Sotheby’s auction, selling for record $71m

A diamond sale worthy of the pink pages.

The ‘Pink Star’ diamond has sold for a record $71.2m in Hong Kong , auction house Sotheby’s said on Tuesday, smashing its estimate of $60m.

The 59.6 carat gemstone, described as “one of the world’s great natural treasures” is the largest internally flawless, fancy vivid pink diamond ever graded by the Gemalogical Institute of America.

The price includes a buyer’s premium, the auction house said, but not sales taxes. The $71.2m figure is a record for a gemstone sold at auction.

The rough diamond was discovered in South Africa by De Beers in 1999.

The sales price for the single stone is equal to more than a third of De Beers first quarter diamond cycle sales of $1.9bn.

Chow Tai Fook has bought major stones in the past, purchasing the 507 carat Cullinan Heritage rough diamond for $35.3m in 2010, a record for a rough diamond, according to the company’s website.

Good risk management combines several elements

1. Clarifying trading and risk management systems until they can translate to computer code.

2. Inclusion of diversification and instrument selection into the back-testing process.

3. Back-testing and stress-testing to determine trading parameter sensitivity and optimal values.

4. Clear agreement of all parties on expectation of volatility and return.

5. Maintenance of supportive relationships between investors and managers.

6. Above all, stick to the system.

7. See #6, above.