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Fri, 26th May 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “May 3, 2017” Day

Q1 2017 Eurozone GDP flash 0.5% vs 0.5% exp q/q

Q1 2017 Eurozone GDP flash data report 3 May 2017

  • Prior 0.4%. Revised to 0.5%
  • 1.7% vs 1.7% exp y/y. Prior 1.7%. Revised to 1.8%
  • EU28 states 0.4% vs 0.6% prior q/q
  • 1.9% unch y/y

Bang on the money expectation wise but actually worse y/y when you factor in the higher revision.

This flash report is seriously lacking in detail. Only 6/11 countries have published data for this report.

EURUSD doing nothing at 1.0910.

 

Probability in Trading

The indulgence of probability

Probability in day trading is an extremely flexible and equally subjective authority. It is one such aspect that provides for a comprehensive room in terms of making decisions and analysing the potential effects of the decision as well. It can be envisioned as a semi-mechanical process which is based on an automated system comprising of various probabilities that depict two possible results at the end of it all.

Application of the laws of probability to determine market curve

The laws of probability are majorly applied to the stock market arena in speculating the growth curve. One of the most common examples is the influence of present growth on a stock. For instance the laws of probability in stock market confers to the fact that a stock is expected to underperform following an adverse growth session since major players tend to reap in the benefits without further risk involvement.

The substantial loss is incurred since major proportions of the people seemingly think alike and want to either cash out with the profits they have made or simply by virtue of the fear of losing money. Either way the scenario is completely structured owing to the presumptuous thinking of the common people and the misguiding statistical analysis with probability at its core.

It is therefore easily understandable that probability plays a comprehensive role at the crux of shaping the stock market manoeuvres. Probability in day trading is completely speculative yet self-induced as well. In an easier and subtle language it can be envisioned as a pseudo element that helps to shape the movements. It is significantly a common entity that is extensively present at the back of the mind in each trader.  

Probability based trading

Apple (AAPL) earnings announcement: $2.10 EPS (expected $2.01)

Apple’s numbers out now

  • $2.10 EPS (expected $2.01)
  • Revenue is $52.9B (expected $52.61B)
  • Sold 50.8mln iPhones in Q2 (estimate was 51.4mln) … note that Apple typically launches new iPhones in September … then again that factoid will have been built into expectations …. so the number of iPhone sales is still a miss
  • Net income $11.03 billion (that’s the $2.10 per share), from $10.52bn ($1.90 / share) a year earlier
More:
Guidance for the current quarter is below market expectations:
  • Revenue  US$43.5- $45.5B
  • Margin 37.5% -38.5%
  • Operating expenses US$6.6-$6.7B

WTI/RBOB Pop After Biggest Crude Draw Since 2016, Surprise Gasoline Draw

Following last week’s surprise builds in Gasoline and Distillates, API reported a bigger than expected crude draw of 4mm barrels (whioch will be the biggest since 2016 if it holds for DOE). Furthermore, RBOB jumped after gasoline (and distillates) inventories fell (against expectations of a modest build)

API

  • Crude -4.158mm (-3.5mm exp) – biggest since 2016
  • Cushing -215k
  • Gasoline -1.93mm (+1mm exp)
  • Distillates -436k

Inventory draws across the board…

And the reaction was a kneejerk higher – after an ugly day (thanks to comments from the Saudi crown prince) for WTI (6mo lows) and RBOB (8mo lows)…

 

Notably, Russian announced production cuts right before the data hit and stated that it favbored extending the OPEC production cut deal.

 

Le Pen: Referendum to leave the euro would take place 6-8 months after vote

Some strong comments from Le Pen as she tries to cut into Macron’s lead

  • EU reform negotiations would start immediately if elected
  • Hopes French people will have francs in their pockets instead of euros within two years
  • There wouldn’t be a run on banks during negotiations with EU but doesn’t rule out capital controls if there was one
  • Says would tell Merkel that “France will now stand up for the interests of France”

There are two things you should never mention if you’re a politician: 1) Nazis (see Sean Spicer) and 2) Capital controls

Oil Suddenly Drops To 6-Month Lows After Saudi Prince Comments

Driven by both a technical level break and comments from Saudi crown prince bin Salman, WTI Crude just tumbled to below $47.50 – its lowest since early November

Breaking below last week’ slows, testing stops below early March’s lows…

Driven by both a technical level break and comments from Saudi crown prince bin Salman, WTI Crude just tumbled to below $47.50 – its lowest since early November

Breaking below last week’ slows, testing stops below early March’s lows…

After Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman commented… saying OPEC and Non-OPEC deal was unprecedented, and that the optimistic scenario for oil prices if $55, and $45 is lowest.

  • *SAUDI PRINCE: SAUDI BUDGET DEFICIT NARROWED MORE THAN EXPECTED
  • *SAUDI PRINCE: SAUDI ECONOMY AVOIDED RECESSION
  • *SAUDI PRINCE: NON-OIL REVENUE IN 1Q EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
  • *SAUDI PRINCE: OPEC, NON-OPEC DEAL WAS UNPRECEDENTED

And we also note that RBOB (Gasoline) prices have tumbled to 8-month lows…