Probability in day trading is an extremely flexible and equally subjective authority. It is one such aspect that provides for a comprehensive room in terms of making decisions and analysing the potential effects of the decision as well. It can be envisioned as a semi-mechanical process which is based on an automated system comprising of various probabilities that depict two possible results at the end of it all.
Application of the laws of probability to determine market curve
The laws of probability are majorly applied to the stock market arena in speculating the growth curve. One of the most common examples is the influence of present growth on a stock. For instance the laws of probability in stock market confers to the fact that a stock is expected to underperform following an adverse growth session since major players tend to reap in the benefits without further risk involvement.
The substantial loss is incurred since major proportions of the people seemingly think alike and want to either cash out with the profits they have made or simply by virtue of the fear of losing money. Either way the scenario is completely structured owing to the presumptuous thinking of the common people and the misguiding statistical analysis with probability at its core.
It is therefore easily understandable that probability plays a comprehensive role at the crux of shaping the stock market manoeuvres. Probability in day trading is completely speculative yet self-induced as well. In an easier and subtle language it can be envisioned as a pseudo element that helps to shape the movements. It is significantly a common entity that is extensively present at the back of the mind in each trader.
Sold 50.8mln iPhones in Q2 (estimate was 51.4mln) … note that Apple typically launches new iPhones in September … then again that factoid will have been built into expectations …. so the number of iPhone sales is still a miss
Net income $11.03 billion (that’s the $2.10 per share), from $10.52bn ($1.90 / share) a year earlier
Guidance for the current quarter is below market expectations:
Following last week’s surprise builds in Gasoline and Distillates, API reported a bigger than expected crude draw of 4mm barrels (whioch will be the biggest since 2016 if it holds for DOE). Furthermore, RBOB jumped after gasoline (and distillates) inventories fell (against expectations of a modest build)
Crude -4.158mm (-3.5mm exp) – biggest since 2016
Gasoline -1.93mm (+1mm exp)
Inventory draws across the board…
And the reaction was a kneejerk higher – after an ugly day (thanks to comments from the Saudi crown prince) for WTI (6mo lows) and RBOB (8mo lows)…
Notably, Russian announced production cuts right before the data hit and stated that it favbored extending the OPEC production cut deal.