Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “June 1, 2017” Day

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rises to 4.0% from 3.8% for 2Q

Forecasts a strong rebound from the Q1 1.2% gain.

The latest estimate for 2Q GDP growth from the Atlanta Fed, has it pegged at 4.0%. This is up from the 3.8% estimate released on May 30th.

In their words:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning’s construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for May-normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data-increased from 0.30 to 0.72 after the report.

The next estimate will be released on Friday, June 2nd. ON that day the NY Fed will release their estimate for GDP growth as well. Their most recent estimate is for a more modest 2.2% gain. 

European Indices mostly higher on the day

Spain’s Ibex the lone decliner

The European stocks are off to a positive start in the new trading month.
  • German Dax up 0.4%
  • France’s Cac up 0.8%
  • UK FTSE up 0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE Mib up 0.99%
  • Portugal PS120 up 0.36%
The lone decline came in Spain’s Ibex which fell by -0.2%. The Ibex has been the big gainer for the year though with a gain of over 16%. – far outpacing the next highest gainer the Dax which is up 10.31%.  The UK FTSE is the dog, but it too has gained 5.67%.
In the US, the Nasdaq leads the charge with a solid +15.47% gain in 2017.

Weekly US oil inventories -6428K vs -3000K expected

weekly energy stockpiles and production from the EIA

  • Prior was -4432K
  • Cushing -747K vs -500K expected
  • Gasoline -2858K vs -1500K expected
  • Distillates +394K vs -700K expected

Late yesterday, API reported:

  • Crude -8670K
  • Gasoline -1730K
  • Distillates +124K

So it’s not quite as big of a draw as API reported for crude but add in gasoline and it’s basically there.

Crude isn’t doing much on the headlines. It’s ticked up to $48.65 from $48.50, one of the reasons might be the continued march higher in production.

  • Production +0.2% w/w
  • Production 9.342 mbpd vs 9.320 mbpd prior
  • Production up 6.9% y/y


China debt ‘could prompt $7.7 trillion asset sale’

China’s mounting bad debts might constitute a nightmare for Beijing as it tries to ensure more stable growth. But they are also fueling an emerging market that could be worth at least $3 trillion for foreign buyers of distressed assets.

Key sources feeding the growth of this market are state–owned enterprises, privatization of which is necessary to put China back on a sustainable growth path, according to Citigroup’s chief China economist Li-Gang Liu.

 Liu believes the process, if carried out seriously, will unleash 52 trillion yuan ($7.7 trillion) of assets into the market, assuming state ownership were to be sold down to between 40% and 50% in exchange for fresh funds needed for debt repayment.

“More than half of the funds could be supplied by China’s own savings. The remaining [funding] probably will have to rely on foreign investors,” said Liu, speaking at a Thursday conference in Hong Kong organized by market intelligence provider Debtwire. He noted that China’s saving ratio currently stood at 47% of the country’s gross domestic product.

“China will have to either open up its equity and capital markets for foreign participation … or continue with the old ways to allow their enterprises to list in Hong Kong, Singapore, New York and elsewhere,” he added.


Read More 

Bitcoin Surges Back Above $2450 After China Eases Exchange Controls

Bitcoin has retraced over half its losses from last week‘s tumble, rallying back above $2450 oveenight after news that China’s three largest bitcoin exchanges are allowing customers to withdraw bitcoins from their accounts.

As CoinTelegraph reports, on May 31, local Chinese Bitcoin and cryptocurrency news source cnLedger reported that OKCoin China resumed withdrawals for traders

YouTube and Twitter fall short on EU hate speech standards

YouTube and Twitter fell short of new EU standards on removing hate speech from their websites – a key part of a push by Brussels to make big internet companies more responsible for the content they host.

Major internet companies including Facebook, YouTube and Twitter all pledged to review a majority of notifications flagging “illegal hate speech” within 24 hours when they signed up to European Commission’s “code of conduct” last year.

At the moment, only Facebook reaches this target, assessing 57.9 per cent of flagged cases within this time period. By contrast YouTube managed only 42.6 per cent of cases and Twitter 39 per cent, according to data put forward by the European Commission.

Karen White, Twitter’s head of public policy in Europe said: “Over the past six months, we’ve introduced a host of new tools and features to improve Twitter for everyone.”

“Our work will never be ‘done’.”

A spokesperson for YouTube said:

May ADP employment +253K vs +180K expected

The ADP employment report for May

  • Prior was +177K (revised to 174K)
  • Highest in two months
  • 1,199,000 jobs through first five months of the year
  • The five months to start the year were the best since 2006

Super-strong headline from ADP and great jobs growth so far to start the year.

OPEC starts a fresh round of jawboning

OPEC sources talk of a deeper cut

OPEC could revive the idea of a deeper supply cut at the next meeting if oil inventories stay high, according to two sources cited by Reuters.

Separately, three sources cited by Reuters said OPEC discussed cutting output by a further 1% to 1.5% last week.