Closing changes for the main European bourses
- UK FTSE – flat
- German DAX +1.2%
- French CAC +0.3%
- Spain IBEX -flat
On the week:
- UK FTSE +1.02%
- German DAX +2.65%
- French CAC +0.39%
- Spain IBEX +0.8%
On the week:
34 economists polled
Reduced expectations (weakest of 2017 so far) but still seems very toppish to me.
I bet there’s a few traders who would love to see prices up there again.
Currently $47.14 and $49.33
Expect sellers into 111.80 then larger at 112.00. Demand into 111.50, 111.30 and 111.00
Australia’s S&P/ASX200 closes up +0.92% at 5791.20
China and the European Union will seek on Friday to save a global pact against climate change from which U.S. President Donald Trump said he will withdraw.
As China emerges as Europe’s unlikely global partner on areas from free trade to security, Premier Li Keqiang will meet top EU officials at a summit in Brussels that will also address North Korea’s missile tests and global steel overcapacity.
“China will stand by its responsibilities on climate change,” he told reporters after meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel and before flying on to Brussels.
In a statement backed by all 28 EU states, the European Union and China will commit to full implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement, EU and Chinese officials said.
The joint statement, the first between the China and the EU, commits to cutting back on fossil fuels, developing more green technology and helping raise $100 billion a year by 2020 to help poorer countries cut their emissions.
China’s steel output is picking up pace due to greater infrastructure investment and the crackdown on illegal production, creating worries for the global steel market and stoking uncertainty about President Xi Jinping’s efforts to bring the country’s overcapacity to heel.
Crude steel production in China hit back-to-back monthly records in March and April. In March, production rose 1.8% over the previous month to 71.99 million tons, and in April it shot up 4.9% to 72.78 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The April figure is a pace of 2.42 million tons per day, or 885 million tons a year, and would represent an increase of 77 million tons from 2016, besting South Korea’s production of 69 million tons.
Another factor is the crackdown on production that melts scrap and remolds it. Such steel is illegal due to environmental and other reasons but rural areas have continued to produce it. Yearly capacity is estimated at 100 million tons and output at 30 million tons. Starting last year the Chinese government began closing down such facilities, even going so far as revealing the officials of the offending regional governments. It is possible that crude steel is making up for that reduction.
Currently, Chinese steel exports are falling due to high domestic consumption. Until April, exports had fallen year on year for nine straight months. Price differences between rebar, steel plate and other product types have varied widely. Prices over that span were about 20-70% higher than the same period a year earlier, but have come down 10-20% from the most recent peak in March.
Concerns about the global steel market are mounting in Europe, Japan and the U.S. The Chinese government has tightened money over worries about a real estate bubble, and many believe the country’s economy will slow in the second half of the year. If China begins cheap steel exports again, steelmakers in developed nations may suffer.
Here are the rules – they are not unique or new. They are time tested and successful investor approved. Like Mom’s chicken soup for a cold – the rules are the rules. If you follow them you succeed – if you don’t, you don’t.
It seems like a simple thing to do but when it comes down to it the average investor sells their winners and keeps their losers hoping they will come back to even.
You haggle, negotiate and shop extensively for the best deals on cars and flat screen televisions. However, you will pay any price for a stock because someone on television told you too. Insist on making investments when you are getting a “good deal” on it. If it isn’t – it isn’t, don’t try and come up with an excuse to justify overpaying for an investment. In the long run – overpaying will end in misery.
As much as our emotions and psychological makeup want to always hope and pray for the best – this time is never different than the past. History may not repeat exactly but it surely rhymes awfully well.
As with item number 2; there is never a rush to make an investment and there is NOTHING WRONG with sitting on cash until a good deal, a real bargain, comes along. Being patient is not only a virtue – it is a good way to keep yourself out of trouble.
Any good investment is NEVER dictated by day to day movements of the market which is merely nothing more than noise. If you have done your homework, made a good investment at a good price and have confirmed your analysis to correct – then the day to day market actions will have little, if any, bearing on the longer-term success of your investment. The only thing you achieve by watching the television from one minute to the next is increasing your blood pressure.
Taking RISK in an investment or strategy is not equivalent to how much money you will make. It only relates to the permanent loss of capital that will be incurred when you are wrong. Invest conservatively and grow your money over time with the LEAST amount of risk possible.
The populous is generally right in the middle of a move up in the markets but they are seldom right at major turning points. When everyone agrees on the direction of the market due to any given set of reasons – generally something else happens. However, this also cedes to points 2) and 4); in order to buy something cheap or sell something at the best price – you are generally buying when everyone is selling and selling when everyone else is buying.
These are the rules. They are simple and impossible to follow for most. However, if you can incorporate them you will succeed in your investment goals in the long run. You most likely WILL NOT outperform the markets on the way up but you will not lose as much on the way down. This is important because it is much easier to replace a lost opportunity in investing – it is impossible to replace lost capital.
As an investor, it is simply your job to step away from your “emotions” for a moment and look objectively at the market around you. Is it currently dominated by “greed” or “fear?” Your long-term returns will depend greatly not only on how you answer that question, but how you manage the inherent risk.
“The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.” – Benjamin Graham