Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “June 7, 2017” Day



There is a reason why so few traders succeed.  It is not for lack of study or effort or passion.  It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription.  It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators).  No.  So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.

The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by.  They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.

The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”.   The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.

The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”

Bill Gross: “Market Risk Is Highest Since Before The 2008 Crisis”

Speaking at the Bloomberg Invest summit in New York, Bill Gross (of the recently merged Janus Henderson) who may or may not have been talking his bond book, issued a loud warning to traders saying U.S. markets are at their highest risk levels since before the 2008 financial crisis “because investors are paying a high price for the chances they’re taking.” Well, either that, or simply ignoring the possibility of all ETFs having to sell at once.

“Instead of buying low and selling high, you’re buying high and crossing your fingers,” Gross said Wednesday quoted by Bloomberg.

DOE Crude oil inventories has a surprise build of +3295K vs -3250K est

Surprise build in inventories

  • Crude oil build of 3295K vs drawdown of -3250K est
  • Cusihing -1444K v s-450K est
  • Gasoline 3324K vs -50K est
  • Distillates 4355K ve 650K est
  • Utilization -0.90% vs -0.25%
The weeklly inventory data shows a surprise inventory build.  The price of crude oil has moved lower on the news with the price trading at $46.53, down -$1.66 or -3.57%. The $45.32 is the 61.8% of the move up from the August low.
The USDCAD has moved higher on the news too (lower CAD) and looks to test the key 1.3500 level.

Trump to nominate Christopher Wray as new FBI director

Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he plans to nominate Christopher Wray as the new director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation just a day before James Comey is set to testify before Congress.

The US president said in a tweet that Mr Wray is “a man of impeccable credentials”.

Mr Wray is a litigation partner at King & Spalding, according to the law firm’s website. He specialises in white-collar criminal and regulatory enforcement matters. He served from 2003 – 2005 as assistant attorney general in charge of the Justice Department’s criminal division, having been nominated by former President George W Bush.

The decision by Mr Trump comes just a day before Mr Comey is to testify before the Senate intelligence committee in his first public appearance since being fired last month by Mr Trump.

Mr Comey, who was leading the FBI’s inquiry into contacts between the Trump presidential campaign and Russian officials, is expected to provide more details about his controversial dismissal and reports that Mr Trump looked to influence the probe.

OECD sees global GDP of +3.5% in 2017 vs +3.3% in previous forecast

OECD out with their latest thoughts and expectations 7 June

  • 3.6% in 2018
  • US 2017 GDP 2.1% vs 2.4% prev and 2018 2.4% vs 2.8% prev
  • EZ 2017 and GDP 1.8% vs 1.6% prev
  • UK 2017 GDP 1.6% and 1.0% in 2018, unch vs prev
  • Japan 2017 GDP 1.4% vs 1.2% prev f/cast
  • China 2017 GDP 6.6% vs 6.5% prev, 2018 6.4% vs 6.3% prev

So just the US that warrants downward revision. What does that tell us about the chances/rational of more interest rate hikes? I remain dovish on that issue.

Full OECD report here


China FX reserves end-May USD 3.054trln vs 3.030trln prev

PBOC out with latest fx reserves data 7 June

  • up +$24.03bln from end-April
  • gold reserves $75.004bln vs $75.02bln prev
  • gold reserves 59.24mln fine troy oz as prev
  • end-May SDR-denominated forex reserves 2.21trln as prev
  • end-May IMF reserve position $9.79b vs 9.69bln prev

MM rise for 4th time on the bounce after the dip below $3trln, longest winning run since June 2014 and evidence of PBOC having to interv

Switzerland May forex reserves CHF 693.7 bln vs 696.65 bln prev

Switzerland May forex reserves report 7 June

  • prev revised up from CHF 695.94bln

Full details from the SNB here

Reduced reserves following on from yesterday’s reduced domestic sight deposits suggesting less “smoothing” required by SNB for the moment.

USDCHF unchanged at 0.9632 but supported still down here I think the SNB still interested to make a presence/cast a shadow if nothing else. EURCHF also finding dip-demand and currently 1.0856

Nikkei 225 closes up +0.02% at 19,984.62

Neutral tones as USDJPY range trades 7 June

  • high 20023.24
  • low 19908.07
  • Topix +0.04% at 1597.09
  • USDJPY 109.46 just drifting lower again.

Expect sellers into 109.60 then larger at 109.80 and 110.00. Demand into 109.25 and 109.00

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 closes up +0.07% at 5671.60