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Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “June 9, 2017” Day

Europe Market : FTSE index rises 1.0% despite election uncertainty

European stocks mostly higher after UK election results

  • UK FTSE is closing up 1.0% at 7523 as the stocks cheer a lower GBP (and ignores election uncertainty). The high reached 7545.12 while the low traded to 7449.73
  • German Dax ended up +0.7%
  • France’s Cac was up 0.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex fell 0.3%
  • Portugal’s PS120 was up 1.12%
  • Italy’s FTSE Mib up 0.38%
In the 10 year debt market today:
  • Germany 0.263%, unchanged
  • France 0.647%, unchanged
  • Italy 2.097% down 8 bp
  • Portugal 3.026%, unchanged
  • UK 1.006%, -2.7 bp
  • Spain 1.441%, -3.5 bp

Nigel Farage: ‘Brexit process very seriously damaged’

Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage says the outcome of the general election means that “the whole Brexit process has very seriously been damaged”.

Speaking to the BBC, the radio show host said:

The real worry I’ve got is that even David Davis was saying this morning that perhaps leaving the single market and the customs union will need to be reconsidered. Tory central office has concluded that campaigning for hard Brexit has cost them votes. I think that analysis is wrong.

Asked by journalist Andrew Neil whether Ukip is “out, over, done, toast”, Mr Farage said “fluid” voters could still return to Ukip if they felt “betrayed” by Brexit. He’d be prepared to return to campaigning, he added.

BBC says Conservatives are no longer able to win an outright majority

BBC UK election team reporting 9 June

I thought that was fairly obvious but, hey, here’s their latest take on seats still to be declared.

There are seven seats yet to declare that our predictions show as being too close to call.

Seats forecast too close to call: Conservative held in 2015

  • Chipping Barnet, the Conservatives have a 59% chance of victory, Labour has a 41% chance of victory
  • Crewe & Nantwich, the Conservatives have a 70% chance of victory, Labour has a 30% chance of victory
  • Kensington, the Conservatives have a 63% chance of victory, Labour has a 37% chance of victory
  • Richmond Park, the Conservatives have a 42% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 58% chance of victory
  • Southampton Itchen, the Conservatives have a 53% chance of victory, Labour has a 47% chance of victory

Seats forecast too close to call: Labour held in 2015

India : UNIQUE ID LIKE PAN OR AADHAAR MAY BE MADE MANDATORY FOR FLIGHT BOOKING

In the next three to four months air travellers in the country will have to mandatorily provide a unique identification (UID) like an Aadhaar card, passport or PAN at the time of booking tickets. The Government has constituted a technical committee that will prepare a white paper on this proposal in 30 days, said Minister of State for Civil Aviation Jayant Sinha told the reporters here.

“There are various ways of securing that unique identification. Clearly, the best way of doing it is by using Aadhaar and other ways are by using a passport or PAN card,” said Sinha.

As an incentive, passengers will be able to avail a paperless and seamless travel experience. Once a passengers book their tickets, the unique ID, along with PNR, will provide all their information and will also serve as a digital boarding pass, explained Sinha.

Those who provide biometric identification through Aadhaar will have to do an iris or finger scan at the airport, while those who share other forms of ID will be provided a QR code on their mobile phones which can then be scanned at the airport.

However, passengers who wish to collect their boarding passes and skip the digital system will still have the option to do so but won’t enjoy the benefit of hassle-free travel. “If you are using the system, to potentially get through the entire airport you will be able to zip through in 10-15 min versus 20-30 minutes. We think that this will create an incentive for people,” Sinha said.

Indian Banks : Gross non-performing assets will increase to Rs 8.2- 8.5 lakh crore BY 2017-18

PSU banks will need Rs 90,000-crore of extra capital in the next two years to meet stringent global adequacy norms, much in excess of the Rs 20,000 crore kept for them by the government during this period, Moody’s Investors Service said today.

In a report on the health of Indian banking vis-à-vis the 11 state-owned banks that it rates, Moody’s said weak capitalisation levels would remain a key credit weakness for these 11 banks and added that they had limited ability to raise external capital.

“Capital infusions from the government remain the only viable source of external equity capital, because of the public sector banks’ low capital market valuations, which would likely to continue to deny them the option of raising fresh equity from the capital markets,” the agency noted.

Under the Indradhanush plan for bank recapitalisation, the Centre will infuse Rs 70,000 crore in PSU banks beginning 2015. Of this, the government has already infused Rs 50,000 crore in the past two years and the rest will be pumped in by the end of 2018-19.

According to the plan, the state-owned banks need to raise Rs 1.10 lakh crore from the markets, including follow-on public offers, to meet Basel-III capital adequacy norms, which kick in from March 2019.

According to Moody’s Indian affiliate, Icra, the asset quality outlook for the banking sector will remain weak. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs), or bad loans, will increase to Rs 8.2- 8.5 lakh crore (9.9-10.3 per cent of total advances) by the end of 2017-18 against Rs 7.65 lakh crore (9.5 per cent) at the end of March 2017.

“In our central scenario, we estimate that the 11 Moody’s-rated public sector banks will require external equity capital of about Rs 70,000-95,000 crore, or about $10.6-14.6 billion,” Moody’s vice-president and senior analyst Alka Anbarasu said.

The international rating agency added that the stock of impaired loans would increase during the horizon of this outlook, but at a slower pace versus the last two years.

Moody’s said it expected credit costs to stay broadly in line with the levels during the last fiscal but any material improvements in the banks’ profitability profiles over the next two years were unlikely.

Bad loans

Karthik Srinivasan, Icra group head, financial sector ratings, said fresh NPA generation was likely to come at 5.5 per cent for 2016-17 compared with 6 per cent in the previous year. Overall stressed assets for banks stood at around 16-17 per cent as on March 2017.

The recent Ordinance to amend the Banking Regulation Act of 1949 is a positive for banks.

Moody’s further said that its stable outlook for non-financial corporates over the next 12-18 months reflects the country’s sustained economic growth.

Trump Impeachment Odds Slide After Comey Testimony

So what is the verdict from Comey’s historic testimony?

It depends on who you ask: turning to CNN, reading the NYT or WaPo, or any source of left-leaning news, and virtually every commentator will be certain that Trump’s political career has been terminally truncated as a result of today’s events. Alternatively, and inversely, the right will claim the opposite: Comey failed to do any damage to the president, the Russian collusion narrative is now over, and that it is Comey’s own actions that should be probed.

Both are to be expected.

But what about the reaction by an impartial arbiter such as the market? Conveiently, that’s what PredictIt is for, and as the chart below shows, Trump’s 2017 impeachment odds dropped by 4 points, from 21% to 17%, following Comey’s testimony.