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Mon, 20th February 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Posts Authored by: “Nayal Khan”

Syria Recognizes Crimea as Part of Russia

Speaker of the People’s Council of Syria, the country’s legislative authority, Hadiya Khalaf Abbas, told Sputnik she considered Crimea an integral part of Russia which rejoined the country following expression of free will in referendum.

“Due to the events which unfolded after the collapse of the Soviet Union until present times, this [federal] subject returned to its roots [Russia] after the expression of free will of the people at a Crimean referendum… We accept that Crimea is an integral part of Russia,” Abbas said.

The Crimean peninsula seceded from Ukraine and reunified with Russia after more than 96 percent of local voters supported the move in a referendum in March 2014. Kiev, as well as the European Union, the United States and their allies, did not recognize the move and consider the peninsula to be occupied territory. They imposed a number of individual and economic sanctions against Russia, driving Russia to retaliate with a ban on various imports from Europe.

The Crimean peninsula seceded from Ukraine and reunified with Russia after more than 96 percent of local voters supported the move in a referendum in March 2014. Kiev, as well as the European Union, the United States and their allies, did not recognize the move and consider the peninsula to be occupied territory. They imposed a number of individual and economic sanctions against Russia, driving Russia to retaliate with a ban on various imports from Europe.

China Q3 GDP: 6.7% y/y (expected 6.7%)

Third quarter China gross domestic product is the big data point for today

GDP for Q3, y/y  6.7%  … In line with expected and unchanged from Q2
  • expected 6.7%, prior 6.7%
  • The government’s target band is 6.5 to 7 percent, so pretty much close to the middle of the target range
GDP, q/q  1.8% … In line with expected and unchanged from Q2 … no, wait, Q2 revised to 1.9% from 1.8%
  • expected 1.8%, prior 1.9%, revised from 1.8%
GDP YTD y/y  6.7% … In line with expected and unchanged from Q2
  • expected 6.7%, prior 6.7%
Well … that lot is boring …. all as expected and matching the prior
And, other data from China today:

5 Main Things To Watch In Today’s Chinese GDP Report

There is one simple reason why when the Chinese Q3 GDP print is revealed shortly, it will be an utterly meaningless indicator – the number, as not only traders but the general public know, is a goalseeked, arbitrary political construct meant to convey not information about the economy, but – at best – about Beijing’s intentions what it may or may not do in the future regarding future monetary or fiscal (which as we showed just hit an all time high) stimulus.

In fact, as Evercore ISI said in the company’s latest look at China, “China’s Real GDP data is opaque; Nearly invariant at 7 – 7.5%; No real, nominal, deflator detail; no income-expenditure cross check, etc. No data pros will answer questions.” In short: it is useless. An alternative, and much more informative index created by ISI, is shown by the red line in the chart below – unlike the blue line, or China’s official GDP data, it reflect the real twists and turns in China’s economy.

Angela Merkel invites Putin for first talks in Germany since 2014

German chancellor Angela Merkel has invited Vladimir Putin for talks in Berlin, in the Russian president’s first trip to Germany since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014.

The summit will be held under the so-called “Normandy Format”, where representatives from Moscow and Kiev meet colleagues from the German and French governments

French president François Hollande and the Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko will also take part in the meeting, according to the German chancellery. It would be the first meeting of the Normandy four since last October. 

A statement from the chancellery said it would be their first meeting since October 2015 in Paris. The purpose of the talks was “to assess the implementation of the Minsk accords” since then “and to discuss further steps”.

Last week Mr Putin called off a trip to Paris amid rising diplomatic tensions between Russia and the west over Syria. That decision came after Mr Hollande strongly criticised Russia’s role in the bombing campaign in Syria.

The last time Ms Merkel met Mr Putin was in Moscow in May 2015.

The Minsk accord was reached in February 2015 but since then fighting has continued between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government troops in the east of the country.

Russia ready to act on oil production freeze

Russian oil min Novak out with comments. Livesquawk reporting 17 Oct

  • oil prices good for current projects, too low for future
  • sees positive trend in oil talks
  • Saudi and Iran seem more flexible in talks

Brent crude currently $51.60 in retreat from $ 52.00 again. WTI $50.01 from $50.30 highs

USDCAD therefore nudging its way higher to 1.3181 from 1.3151

A beleaguered Xi Jinping turns to brass for help

DF-21D ballistic missiles are shown during a military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3, 2015.

TOKYO — Chinese President Xi Jinping has conducted an unusual flurry of inspections recently at units of the People’s Liberation Army, as he struggles to weather a political storm.

Xi kicked off the inspections several days before he left Beijing on Sept. 3 for the Group of 20 Summit, held this year in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, on Sept. 4-5. On Aug. 29, Xi visited the Strategic Support Force, one of the PLA’s new units established as part of his military reform drive. The force differs from conventional combat units and is said to be “a future force.”

 The Strategic Support Force consists of three units: cyber, space and electronic warfare, according to a number of sources, including the Global Times, a newspaper affiliated with the People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.

The cyberwarfare unit is made up of computer experts responsible for offensive and defensive action. The space warfare unit oversees China’s spy satellites and the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, the Chinese equivalent of the U.S. Global Positioning System. The electronic warfare unit is responsible for jamming and disrupting enemy radar systems and communications.

Russia is ready for war

Putin and ObamaState television threatens the West with nuclear weapons, the Kremlin halts a disarmament treaty, the army warns of shooting down US jets. As ties between Russia and the West have once again
slumped, rhetoric in Moscow has peaked.

“Relations between Russia and the US, and the West in general, have been dragged down to the bottom, to a level below which it is difficult to fall,” Konstantin Kalachev, the head of the Moscow-based Political Expert Group think tank, told AFP.

But it wasn’t meant to be like this.

Just over a month ago Moscow and Washington inked a deal to revive a ceasefire in Syria and the Kremlin seemed to have scored a tactical win by getting the United States to open the door to coordinate strikes against jihadists.

The agreement, hammered out after repeated rounds of exhausting talks, appeared a potential breakthrough in Syria’s civil war and years of bad blood and furious mudslinging between Moscow and Washington sparked by the Ukraine crisis.

Many, however, were skeptical that the Kremlin and White House, on opposite sides in Syria, could begin to bury the hatchet – and so it proved.

Soon the truce collapsed and as the violence spiraled so did the ferocious acrimony.

Washington suspended talks with the Kremlin on Syria; Moscow tore up a treaty on disposing weapons-grade plutonium; the West accused Russia and Syria of potential war crimes in its brutal attacks on rebel-held east Aleppo.

Russian Government Officials Told To Immediately Bring Back Children Studying Abroad

In Europe, when it gets serious, you have to lie… at least if you are an unelected bureaucrat like Jean-Claude Juncker. In Russia, however, when it gets serious, attention immediately turns to the children.

Which is why we read a report in Russian website Znak published Tuesday, according to which Russian state officials and government workers were told to bring back their children studying abroad immediately, even if means cutting their education short and not waiting until the end of the school year, and re-enroll them in Russian schools, with some concern. The article adds that if the parents of these same officials also live abroad “for some reason”, and have not lost their Russian citizenship, should also be returned to the motherland. Znak cited five administration officials as the source of the report.

The “recommendation” applies to all: from the administration staff, to regional administratiors, to lawmakers of all levels. Employees of public corporations are also subject to the ordinance. One of the sources said that anyone who fails to act, will find such non-compliance to be a “complicating factor in the furtherance of their public sector career.” He added that he was aware of several such cases in recent months.

It appears that the underlying reason behind the command is that the Russian government is concerned about the optics of having children of the Russian political elite being educated abroad, while their parents appear on television talking about patriotism and being “surrounded by enemies.”

GBPUSD hits 1.22 on the nose

A break here could be trouble

Now we’ve cleaned house on all those bids and support just above 1.22 we’re in danger land once again.

GBPUSD H1 chart

Pure and simply, if we can’t get back and hold above 1.2220/30 then there’s really only one way we’re going and if traders are smelling blood again, we could have another violent move below 1.22. I’m not saying it will be anything like Friday but the low 1.21’s could get a very swift visit.