Archives for: Analysis Category

NF-ICON-ASRA break from the emotional side of trading.   Trading unsuccessfully is probably one of the most difficult things a person can put themselves through.  The idea of being wrong hits our egos and most people can’t handle a run of ten losses, let alone a few years of unsuccessful trials. Not only does it make us question whether we are capable of success, it also gives a nasty double-punch by taking your money at the same time.  No-one can tolerate that for very long without feeling pretty battered and bruised, regardless of the (hopefully small) amount of money involved.  For me, the losses were insignificant but the idea that maybe I was fighting a losing battle was difficult.

The ability to reassess.   Having the last few months off has given me enough space from the markets to be able to clearly consider my role within them.   I can definitely say with all honesty that I am not done trading.  I can also say with 100% surety that I am done with very short timeframes.  I’ve been able to clearly look at who I am, and how my personality, talents and skills relate to the markets and the best way for me, as a private trader, to interact with them.   I’ve realised that for me, seeing real humans every day is paramount to my happiness, and that I really enjoy interacting with and helping people.  It stands to reason then that being a 5 minute trader stuck at home is probably not the best career choice for me…certainly took long enough for that penny to drop!

Wednesday-2Last Close : 7906.50

YESTERDAY WRITTEN-

7888———-7874 are Crucial Support levels.(Just see it kissed low of 7871 & taken U-turn )

Now SGX Nifty at 7937 ( +27 points )

Our Subscribers knows ….What was our Last Message ??

TODAY WHAT TO EXPECT

DEAD CAT BOUNCE-ASRAbove 7905 level………………….Our Targets are :7925—7932 level.

Now ,Once crosses 7932 with volumes and trades for 15-20 minutes will take to 7959 level in hrs only.

7DEMA @ 7877 (Major Support  for Traders )

7848

If Breaks this level……………….with volumes ,WATCH PANIC + BLOODBATH !!

101% More Details ,Intraday Strategy +Time Reversal to our Subscribers

Updated at 7:50/27th August/Baroda/India

 

DONT PANIC -MANTRA

We at ASR Think :Don’t panic in any stock in relate to COAL ,Yes Another 5-10% falls if comes…..Buy & Hold for 2-3 months

Big Game -Played by Big Players.

Approximately 9% of the total financial exposure to the power sector — or around $10-12 billion worth of loans — could be in trouble if the Supreme Court cancels all coal block allocations since 1993 that it declared illegal on Monday

The credit relates to around 18 GW of power capacity, 60% of the 30 GW that is based on captive coal.

According to an analysis by Credit Suisse, although the apex court is yet to decide whether the coal blocks will be deallocated, the fact that it has described the allocations as illegal makes the risks “quite high for these projects”.

The report notes that given the uncertainties related to linkages for18 gigawatts of coal-based projects, a large part of banks’ exposure to the private sector will be “under a cloud”.

Analysts point out that even as clarity is awaited from the Supreme Court, which will resume hearings in the case from September 1, any halt in production, even temporary, would compel producers of steel and power to purchase coal

at e-auctions or import the fuel. Given the difference >> Read More

 

Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) has the maximum number of unsold inventory from previous years when compared with the top six real estate markets in India, showing that the demand from property buyers has not picked up as much in the most crucial real estate markets in India.

The region is having the poorest record of selling residential units against what it is launching year after year.

The city launched around 2.3 lakh residential units between 2012 and 2013, and has launched over 35,500 units more till June 2014, taking the total tally of launched units to nearly 2.7 lakh units in the last two and a half years. However, the demand and supply gap has led to a pile-up of 2,13,742 unsold units in maximum city as at the end of June 2014, according to the latest ‘India Real Estate Outlook’ report of global property consultants Knight Frank.

In July 2012, Knight Frank had put the number of unsold units in Mumbai at 80,000 units. >> Read More

 

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has stopped short of proposing complete deregulation of diesel prices.

In an inter-ministerial note on the pricing mechanism for petroleum products, the Ministry has endorsed the existing system of raising diesel prices by up to 50 paise a litre every month.

Once retailers bring their rates in sync with market prices, a fresh proposal will be put up for the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs to consider decontrol, the note said.

Petrol prices have already been deregulated.

This reluctance, according to industry observers, is a clear indication that the Government does not want to take any politically sensitive decision. A rise in retail diesel prices has direct implications for customers — the common man, transporters, power, agriculture; all are key vote banks. >> Read More

 

With the NDA Government completing its 100 days in office on September 6, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to review the performance of key infrastructure sector ministries like petroleum, coal, power, environment, mines and steel as well as roads during a high level meeting scheduled for September 10.

The meeting assumes significance as in terms of policy decisions, action within these key infrastructure ministries is yet to begin. Several ministries like steel and mines as well as coal are yet to see any movement in terms of concrete action as their respective ministers have kept themselves busy with other departments which they simultaneously handle.

According to sources, Modi, who had met Coal and Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Steel and Mines Minister Narendra Singh Tomar as well as Minister for Environment and Information & Broadcasting Prakash Javadekar on Monday, apparently to discuss their performances over the last three months, the September 10 meeting is supposed to be a high profile one. In this meeting, the policy decisions taken by the aforementioned infrastructure ministries since May, are to be reviewed, sources said.

Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, clearly mindful of decorating his 100 days report card, rode roughshod over oil marketing companies’ prerogative of deciding petrol rates, and tweeted on the eve of Independence Day that these will come down by Rs 2 a litre from August 15 onwards. Otherwise, he has not much to show of as all policy initiatives are still in various stages of planning. >> Read More

 

Ukraine’s president said Wednesday that Vladimir Putin accepts the principles of a peace plan for Ukraine but the Russian leader insisted that only Kiev can reach a cease-fire deal with the pro-Moscow separatists.

Following meetings between Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko that included a one-on-one session that stretched into the night, there was no indication of a quick end to the fighting that has engulfed eastern Ukraine.

“This is not our business,” Putin said of any cease-fire plan. “This is Ukraine’s business.”

Russia “can only help to create an atmosphere of trust for this important and necessary process,” Putin said. “We in Russia cannot talk about any conditions for the cease-fire, about any agreements between Kiev, Donetsk, Luhansk,” the two rebel regions.

Although Poroshenko told reporters that he had secured support for a peace plan from leaders who attended the summit and Putin called the sessions “overall positive,” the first substantial encounter between the two leaders did not produce a breakthrough in efforts to end the fighting. >> Read More

Fear of Deflation

27 August 2014 - 6:01 am

A worldwide deflation fear is expanding and may actually be rampant. BCA Daily Insights (August 25, 2014) notes that, “out of 32 OEC countries, more than two-thirds have domestic inflation rates that fall short of 1%.” BCA analysts go on to argue that the worldwide inflation rate may converge to zero over the next couple of years.

Debt markets currently reflect this fear. Here are examples of yields on the benchmark 10-year interest rate for sovereign debt. This is not about credit risk. This is about the risk that the global price-level change will approach or reach zero.

1.      United States 10-Year Treasury Yield, 2.4%
2.      Germany 10-Yield Bund Yield, under 1%
3.      Japanese 10-Year JGB Yield, under 0.5%
4.      France 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 1.3%
5.      Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2%
6.      United Kingdom 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2.5%
7.      Mexico 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 3.2%
8.      Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield, 2.4%

These are unexpected and remarkably low yields.  They reflect the results of central bank policies and the results of growing fear of disinflation or even deflation. >> Read More

 

Argentina’s international row over its $1.5bn default took another twist on Tuesday after the US bank that has frozen a $539m payment was sued by creditors including George Soros in London.

The billionaire investor, who famously “broke the Bank of England” after shorting the pound, is joined by Knighthead Master Fund, RGY International and Kyle Bass’ Hayman Capital Master Fund in the lawsuit against Bank of New York Mellon.

The lender’s “actions have been designed consistently to protect its own interests without reference to the interests” of the bondholders, they claim.

Following a ruling by District Judge Thomas Griesa, who has jurisdiction over the $1.5bn that Argentina owes bondholders, Bank of New York Mellon is holding on to a $539m payment by Argentina to its creditors. He has ordered Argentina to first pay $1.5bn to settle a dispute with holdout investors stemming from the country’s first default in 2001.

The hedge funds’ lawsuit, which was filed in London’s Chancery Court, argues that Bank of New York Mellon should release the portion of the $539m that relates to euro-denominated bonds, as these are governed by British law and not US law, so are not affected by Mr Griesa’ injuction.

>> Read More

MERVAL-ASRAbove is Daily Chart of ARGENTINA MERVAL INDEX

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA

Overnight US Market

27 August 2014 - 5:18 am
 

djia-up29Wall Street’s record-setting rally continued Tuesday as the S&P 500 notched its 30th record of the year and closed above 2000 for the first time. The Dow also rose but fell short of its record closing high after setting an all-time intraday high earlier in the session.

 Investors were encouraged Tuesday by the latest corporate mergers and a jump in consumer confidence and durable goods orders.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.10 points, or 0.1%, to close at a record 2000.02 after rising as high as 2005.04. The benchmark index first broke the 2000 barrier on Monday.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 29.83, or 0.2% to 17,106.70 after earlier hitting an intraday record high of 17,153.80. The Dow’s closing record high of 17,138.20 was set July 16.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 13.29, or 0.3%, to 4570.64.

The major indexes have rallied three straight weeks as investors bet on signs of an improving U.S. economy and react to better-than-expected second-quarter earnings. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index have posted profit growth of 8.4% in the second quarter.

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.