1. Gross long positions were trimmed in all the currency futures we examine here, except the Canadian dollar. The adjustment to gross short positions was mixed.
2. Two positions were meaningfully adjusted (10k contracts or more change). The gross long Australian dollar position was cut by 11.6k contracts and the gross short euro position grew by 24k contracts.
3. It is the largest net and gross short euro position since last November. The gross short position is half the size of last June’s record. The net and gross short sterling position are records. The net short franc position is the largest since last July,while the net short Australian dollar position is he largest since last June.
4. The gross short euro position is larger than the gross short yen position.
5. Significant moves especially in the yen, franc, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso took place after the CFTC reporting period closed. The former appreciated while the latter declined. We expect next week’s report to reflect this.
|week ending May 21|| Commitment of Traders|
|(spec position in 000′s of contracts)|
|Net ||Prior ||Gross Long||Change||Gross Short ||Change|
This may be an unpopular suggestion, but those with a contrarian view of the world will surely appreciate the logic here. The chart below from Goldman shows the consensus economic forecast for 2013 GDP growth of the large Eurozone nations. Again, this is not the actual GDP, but a forecast over time.
It shows that the “herd” of forecasters following each other in the realization of how dire the recession has been across the area. But keep in mind that these are some of the same forecasters that 18 months ago were calling for a “shallow” downturn in these nations (see discussion). Many weren’t even talking about a possible recession. And now they are continually downgrading their predictions – after the fact?
>> Read More
ICICI Bank, India’s largest private sector bank, has proposed a pay hike of over 20% to its top management team just months before issue of new bank licences to corporate houses by the Reserve Bank of India.
The board of directors have rewardedChanda Kochhar, the managing director and chief executive offer of the bank with a 20.75% salary hike to Rs 5.12 crore in 2013. The board has also decided to raise the minimum and maximum range of monthly supplementary allowance for Kochhar to Rs 10-18 lakh from about Rs 8.70 lakh per month.
Other directors have also got pay hikes of over 20%. NS Kannan, the chief financial officer, received a 26.17% hike which is the steepest hike among the top brass at the bank. K Ramkumar, executive director and head human resource at the bank received a 24.78% hike of Rs 3.56 crore.
The salary of Rajeev Sabharwal, executive director and head of the bank’s retail banking and rural initiative that’s been the driver of profit for the March quarter increased by 20.56% to Rs 3.20 crore. The steep hike comes at a time when the Reserve Bank of India and the government are considering fresh banking licences to select corporates.
Pillorying the government of the day for pervasive corruption is the easy thing to do, whereas it might just be an escapist option. It helps those of us who are neither in politics nor in the government to pretend that we are not tainted, and therefore have the right to point fingers at politicians, who we assume are not. The truth, as recent events have brought home forcefully, is that corruption has permeated fields that have nothing to do with politics and government.
The cricket establishment is a disgrace, and now suspected of far worse than the misdemeanours of the Indian Olympic Association, for which that body has suffered the deserved misfortune of being thrown out of the international Olympic movement. If it is spot fixing in cricket, it has been widespread doping in wrestling; problems persist in half a dozen sports bodies, whose recognition the government has withheld. You could argue that it is politicians who mostly run the sports bodies, except that none of the people around Mr Kalmadi were from the world of politics. In any case, the cricket boss is a businessman. >> Read More
Above is Qtly Chart of Nikkei-225
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Just released latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data which showed that the Comex gold short position grew once again to a new all time high of 79,416 shorts, all prayers are now off. If we may be so bold as to we suggest, the time has come to upgrade to the sacrificial slaughtering of at least a lamb on the altar of Saint Ben, because even the tiniest hint of a forced cover will now result in the biggest rip your face off levered short squeeze seen in the history of the yellow metal. Maybe throw in an ink cartridge or two for good measure…
Short positions in gold have risen 25% in the last 3 weeks
Internals were mixed on light volume. Advances/declines were 4 to 5 on the NYSE but 10 to 9 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 2 to 3 on the NYSE but just better than flat on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 62/22 on the NYSE and 73/16 on the Nasdaq.
Leaders — Network (+0.56%), Banks (+0.33%), Drugs (+0.28%), Hospitals (+0.27%), Defense (+0.16%), Disk Drives (-0.03%), Semis (-0.05%), Insurance (-0.07%)
Laggards — HMOs (-1.45%), Gold/Silver (-1.25%), Utilities (-1.03%), Software (-0.99%), Retailers (-0.94%), Metals (-0.92%), Comp. Hardware (-0.88%), Commodities (-0.72%)
Treasury Yields — 6 Month: 0.07 %, 2 Year: 0.22 %, 5 Year: 0.69 %, 10 Year: 1.70 %, 30 Year: 2.89 %
Energy Prices — Crude oil: $93.88/barrel, Gasoline: $2.83/gallon, Natural Gas: $4.23/mmBTU
US Dollar Index — 83.600
Precious Metals — Gold: $1384.40/ounce, Silver: $22.37/ounce, Platinum: $1451.00/ounce