11 December 2013 - 13:25 pm
The focus of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains on inflation, Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday, adding growth seems to be stabilising, although it was too early to call a bottom.
With loan defaults becoming an increasingly bigger problem, Raghuram Rajan said RBI will move to make borrowing costlier, especially for uncooperative and willful defaulters.
Raghuram Rajan added the Indian rupee had stabilised “somewhat”, but said there was no room for complacency. He also called on the government to continue its efforts to contain the fiscal deficit and said raising subsidised diesel prices to market levels would help.
“Our effort is firmly on controlling inflation,” Rajan said during a speech to the Delhi Economic Conclave organised by India’s Finance Ministry.
“Growth is stabilising though it is too early to say it has bottomed at this point,” he also said.
The RBI has raised interest rates by a total of 50 basis points since September to contain inflation. Since the moves, data has shown a slight recovery in economic growth, although it remains hovering close to decade lows. >> Read More
11 December 2013 - 13:09 pm
Now Trading at 61.5675 level.
Now ,What to expect from this level ?What is major Hurdle……………………….?
11 December 2013 - 12:38 pm
India’s external finances have been a major concern for the economy this year, so the narrowing trade gap should give relief to policymakers.
But it’s a bit of a pyrrhic victory, as the gap is narrowing because of falling imports rather than a revival in exports
Inflows of gold have been one of the areas where India is cutting back, as duties on the yellow metal have been hiked repeatedly this year alongside other restrictions from the government.
Today’s trade data seem to imply the government efforts are working, but some claim this is just a mirage.
“A very large portion [of total imports] would be probably going through illegal channels – almost 50 per cent of consumption is going in this channel.” says Ashok Minawala of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.
And that suggests India’s trade figures are distorted. >> Read More
11 December 2013 - 12:33 pm
In special report released today, Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on the Indian telecoms sector to Stable from Negative. The agency believes that the industry will continue to consolidate in 2014, which will reduce competition and bring back the pricing power to the major companies. Regulatory risk will ease on cheaper spectrum, greater spectrum supply and relaxation of M&A rules.
Consolidation is likely as M&A guidelines are relaxed. Weaker unprofitable telcos will seek to merge to strengthen their positions, being unviable as standalone businesses. Of the 10 telcos currently in the market, we believe that six at most can operate profitably in the long term. Larger companies could cherry-pick smaller operators to acquire spectrum assets, however this might impair credit metrics if funded by debt.
Cheaper pan-India spectrum and the introduction of a flexible payment mechanism for regulatory payments would reduce regulatory risk. Furthermore, potentially lower spectrum usage charges – allowing spectrum sharing and trading – would mean cost-savings for most Indian telcos. However, spectrum “re-farming” remains a key risk, which if implemented could cause significant cash outflows for the top three telcos.
Top four telcos’ funds flow from operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage will improve on stable profit margins and manageable regulatory-related cash outflows. Operating EBITDA margin will expand by 150 basis points (bp)-200bp to 31%-32% due to a gradual rise in voice tariffs; greater economies of scale in the data segment; and lower marketing costs as the monthly churn rate comes down.
However, weaker private operators will continue to struggle due to higher costs, large capex requirements and weak balance sheets. Nationally-owned telcos will continue to be hurt by high staff costs and low average revenue per user (ARPU). >> Read More
11 December 2013 - 12:25 pm
Major Support at 6314 level.
7 DEMA at 6296 level.
Break with volumes below 6296 and stays for 20 minutes or more ………………….then ?
Or Closes below 6314 level ,Next Target :6258—6240 in hrs only.
LAST HOPE……………………..11693 level.
Decisive Break with volumes or closes below this level ,We see BLOODBATH to Continue upto 11474—–11401 level in panic.
TONS of MONEY…………..MINTED again in NF ,BNF ,Option Trading !!Really Its everyday practise.
Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA
11 December 2013 - 11:47 am
In case you needed more evidence that India’s economy is troubled, new data shows exports growth faltered and imports deteriorated last month.
Exports were up just 5.9 per cent from a year ago, versus a pace of +13.5 per cent one month before.
And imports dropped 16.4 per cent from a year ago, a worse reading that the -14.5 per cent decline in October, according to Bloomberg data.
The rupee fell slightly just after the data was released, falling 0.1 per cent to 61.3 per dollar.
One silver lining: a large drop in imports narrows the trade balance and could imply that government efforts to stem gold buying is taking effect. >> Read More
11 December 2013 - 11:41 am
Now Trading at 6041 level.
Now ,What to expect ?
11 December 2013 - 10:42 am
Earlier, Deutsche Bank’s iconoclast Jim Reid dared to point out the painfully obvious: that something has drastically changed since the Great Financial Crisis (what that “something” is, is clear to all those whose year end bonus does is not contingent on never pointing out the printerphant in the room). This time around, instead of looking back, he looks forward, to the year 2014, and brings up the two questions nobody dares to ask: i) what happens if 2014 is the year when the recession can no longer be delayed, and ii) how will the Fed, already having doubled down on every last “bullet” in its arsenal, use monetary policy to provide a burst of growth when even $85 billion in flow per month is no longer enough…
From Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid
The curveball for 2014 – A US recession
One topic no-one is really discussing is a US recession in 2014. We should start to at least consider the risk given the maturity of this cycle. By the end of 2013 this expansion will be 54 months old which is longer than the average of 39 months (median 30) since data started to be compiled on US business cycles in 1854. The average in the 100 years since the Fed was formed in 1913 is 50 months (median 42). This cycle is now the seventh-longest of the 34 cycles since 1854. Economists will explain that recessions don’t die of old age but because of imbalances that they might argue are not yet present. However consensus never forecasts a recession in advance so one has to find other ways to help us identify the end of the cycle.Across most other regions, business cycles have shortened post the GFC with many economies experiencing a dip into negative territory again sometime between 2011 and 2013 after the recovery in 2009 and 2010. A lack of policy flexibility (fiscal and monetary) post crisis is our main explanation. The US has just about escaped this due to extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus. However with both likely on the retreat at the same time in 2014 it’s prudent to acknowledge the already mature length of this cycle. >> Read More
11 December 2013 - 10:24 am
Toyota Motor Corp is likely to close its production in Australia, after General Motors Co said it would end vehicle and engine manufacturing in the country by the end of 2017, an Australian labour union official said on Wednesday.
The world’s second-largest auto maker said it was closing its Holden plants in South Australia and Victoria states, affecting 2,900 jobs, which would leave Toyota as the only auto maker in the country.
GM’s exit would make it “highly likely” that Toyota would also end its production in Australia, the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union official told reporters.
11 December 2013 - 10:10 am
The final jewelry auction of the year for Christie’s ended with the sale of a rare 52.58-carat, D-color, internally flawless Golconda diamond for $10.9 million.
Diamonds from the ancient Golconda mines in India are revered for their type, color, and degree of transparency that is rarely duplicated.
In addition, a collection of Leviev diamond jewelry under the heading “Property of an Elegant Lady” was sold for $10.2 million, led by a 26.72-carat D-color, internally flawless diamond that sold for $4.3 million.
The 495-lot Christie’s New York Magnificent Jewels auction on Wednesday realized more than $65.7, with 86 percent sold by lot and 92 percent by value. The results of the December Sale in combination with the results achieved by the New York jewelry auctions in April and October, brings the 2013 New York Magnificent Jewels total to nearly $193.9 million.