Tue, 24th November 2015

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Analysis” Category

German business sentiment bounces, shows Ifo

German business sentiment has jumped in November after a wobble last month amid the snowballing Volkswagen emissions fixing scandal.

The closely watched Ifo Institute Index of German Business Executive Confidence, known more simply as “the Ifo” on the street, clocked in at 109 in November, topping economists’ expectations of no change from the 108.2 reading recorded in October.

German executives’ assessment of current business conditions also warmed after dipping sharply last month. The indicator came in at 113.4 in November, up from 112.6 in October and well ahead of the 112.4 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

And topping off a perfect hat-trick, German executives’ expectations of future business conditions also leapt ahead of expectations, rising to 104.7 from 103.8 in October.

German stocks suffered a wobble over the summer along with other European shares, as fears that China’s economic slowdown is gathering pace weighed on exporters.

But German stocks have enjoyed a resurgence since then, rising in anticipation of a souped up bond buying programme from the European Central Bank. The Dax index is up 16 per cent since the end of September.

Russian Jet Su-24 Crashes on Syrian-Turkish Border

Russian jet Su-24 has crashed on the Turkish-Syrian border, the Russian Defense Ministry said.

Russian aircraft at Latakia airport “Su-24 of the Russian aviation group has crashed in the Syrian Arab Republic after alleged fire from the ground,” the Russian Defense Ministry stated.

According to the preliminary reports, the plane was gunned down from the ground.

The Su-24 bomber jet was in Syrian airspace at the altitude 6,000 meters, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The pilots were reportedly able to parachute out of the jet before it crashed.

“The plane was located at an altitude of 6,000 meters. The fate of the pilots is still unknown. According to the preliminary data, the pilots were able to eject. The circumstances of the plane’s crash are under investigation. The Russian Ministry of Defense notes that during the flight the plane was located strictly in the Syrian airspace. It was registered,” the statement read.

Majority of Brits Want to Quit EU After Paris Attacks

European Union and UK flagsThe survey, published overnight in the Independent newspaper, was conducted by the ORB pollster days after the November 13 terrorist attacks in the French capital killed 130 people and wounded hundreds.

Some 52 percent of those polled now want to exit the 28-nation bloc, the first time that Brexit got a majority in the outlet’s surveys, the Independent indicated. Forty-eight percent of respondents said they wanted to stay.

The newspaper said that the shift toward “yes” vote in the 2017 referendum on Britain’s membership in the European Union was a reflection of the public’s anxiety about the uncontrolled inflow of refugees to Europe from the Middle East and North Africa.

Wealthy EU states, such as the United Kingdom, are the desired destination for hundreds of thousands of migrants. London has been eager to win back the power to curb migration influx amid fears that Islamist militants could sneak into the country among the stream of refugees.

German Q3 GDP final qq +0.3% vs +0.3% exp

Final German GDP data now out

  • +0.3% prev
  • yy WDA + 1.7% vs +1.7% exp/prev
  • yy NSA + 1.8 % vs  +1.8% exp/prev
  • pvt consumption qq + 0.6 % vs +0.5% exp vs +0.1% prev revised down from +0.2%
  • govt spending qq  +1.3% vs +0.4% exp vs +0.7% prev revised up from +0.3%
  • cap investment qq + % vs 0.0% exp vs -0.4% prev
  • construction investment qq + % vs +0.1% exp vs -1.2% prev
  • domestic demand qq

Not a lot to glean from the headlines

EURUSD unchanged at 1.0623 EURGBP a tad lower at 0.7016 as cable catches a small bid, EURJPY 130.29

Russia Bombs 1,000 ISIS Oil Tankers As France Launches First Carrier Strikes Against “Evil Death Cult”

The French dispatched the nuclear powered, $3.5 billion Charles de Gaulle on Saturday while the US sent the CVN-75 Harry Truman last Monday. The departure of the CVN-71 Theodore Roosevelt from the Persian Gulf a month ago had left the entire 5th Naval Fleet without a US carrier presence for the first time in a decade.

But not for long.

At last check, the Truman was already approaching Gibraltar.