Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Analysis” Category

Overnight US Market :Nasdaq closes at record levels. Major indices end the day with strong gains.

Nasdaq up 1.24%. S&P index up 1.08%. Dow up 1.08%

The Nasdaq composite index is ending the day up 1.23% – a record close for that index.  The S&P rose by 1.08% and the Dow also gained over 1% (up 1.06%).
3M, Home Depot, Microsoft all traded at record highs.
Today is the biggest one day gain since March 1st.
The details:
  • Nasdaq rose by 73.299 points or 1.24% to 5983.82. The high reached 5989.91, less than 11 points from the Nasdaq 6000.  The low was 5970.254.
  • The S&P index rose y 25.45 points or 1.08% to 2374.15. The high reached 2376.98. The low came in at 2369.19. The all time high for the S&P index came in at 2400.98 on March 1.
  • The Dow rose by 216.13 to 20763.89. The high reached 20792.20. The low came in at 20723.59.  The all time high for the Dow came on March 1st at a high price of 21169.11.  Today, the Dow moved back above the 50 day MA at 20717.77. The price has been below that MA since April 12th.

11 Facts That Prove The 2017 US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than It Was In 2016

There is much debate about where the U.S. economy is ultimately heading, but what everybody should be able to agree on is that economic conditions are significantly worse this year than they were last year.  It is being projected that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter will be close to zero, thousands of retail stores are closing, factory output is falling, and restaurants and automakers have both fallen on very hard times.  As economic activity has slowed down, commercial and consumer bankruptcies are both rising at rates that we have not seen since the last financial crisis.  Everywhere you look there are echoes of 2008, and yet most people still seem to be in denial about what is happening. 

The following are 11 facts that prove that the U.S. economy in 2017 is in far worse shape than it was in 2016…

#1 It is being projected that there will be more than 8,000 retail store closings in the United States in 2017, and that will far surpass the former peak of 6,163 store closings that we witnessed in 2008.

#2 The number of retailers that have filed for bankruptcy so far in 2017 has already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2016.

#3 So far in 2017, an astounding 49 million square feet of retail space has closed down in the United States.  At this pace, approximately 147 million square feet will be shut down by the end of the year, and that would absolutely shatter the all-time record of 115 million square feet that was shut down in 2001.

#4 The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model is projecting that U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2017 will come in at just 0.5 percent.  If that pace continues for the rest of the year, it will be the worst year for U.S. economic growth since the last recession.

#5 Restaurants are experiencing their toughest stretch since the last recession, and in March things continued to get even worse…

 Foot traffic at chain restaurants in March dropped 3.4% from a year ago. Menu prices couldn’t be increased enough to make up for it, and same-store sales fell 1.1%. The least bad region was the Western US, where sales inched up 1.2% year-over-year and traffic fell only 1.7%, according to TDn2K’s Restaurant Industry Snapshot. The worst was the NY-NJ Region, where sales plunged 4.6% and foot traffic 6.3%. 

Le Pen Says Macron ‘Weak’ in Fight Against Islamist Terrorism

During her visit to one of the local markets in France’s northern Pas-de-Calais district, Le Pen said she was going to “emphasize the fight against Islamist terrorism,” on which Macron was “weak,” Les Echos newspaper reported.

She added that the run-off will be “a referendum for or against uncontrolled globalization,” according to the newspaper.

With most of the votes counted, the National Front leader received 21.43 percent in the first round of the election held Sunday, while the “En Marche!” movement founder Macron came first with 23.86 percent, according to the preliminary results, published by the French Interior Ministry.

The second round of election is slated for May 7.

Eurozone debt to GDP dropped in 2016

Party time in Europe

We’re getting a raft of final budget and debt numbers from Europe.

EZ debt to GDP 89.2% vs 90.3% prior
Budget surplus 1.5% of GDP vs 2.1% prior
Germany budget surplus 0.8% of GDP vs 0.75 prior
Spain BS (no pun intended) 4.5% vs 5.1% prior
France BS 3.4% vs 3.6% prior
Italy BS 2.4% vs 2.7% prior
Greece public debt 179.0% of GDP vs 177.4% prior
At least the Eurozone countries have used low rates and easy monetary conditions to lower government debt…oh wait.

GOLD -SILVER :Crucial Update



BASE METALS…………….Moving down down down

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Nikkei 225 closes up +1.37% at 18,875.88

Japanese equities firmer with weaker yen 24 April

  • high 18910.33
  • low 18840.13
  • Topix +0.98% at 1503.19
  • USDJPY 110.24  on the rise again after finding support below 110

Expect sellers nearby at 110.30 and 110.50. Demand/support 110.00 and 109.80

Australia’s S&P/ASX200 closes up 0.22% at 5867.10

Mumbai property market: House registrations dip to 6-year low

IImage result for housing in mumbait has been a weak start for Mumbai’s property market in 2017, data on house property registrations showed. During January-March period, there were 14,239 registrations recorded, according to data sourced from Director General of Registrations, Mumbai. This is a over 21% fall compared to January-March period of 2016, and again the lowest in 6 years. FE had reported that the registrations touched a six-year low for two months in a row in November and December last year.

January and February numbers were lower than the levels seen in November and December — immediately after demonetisation. This means that contrary to the expectations that note ban impact would be limited to a short period, it in fact lingered on.

The numbers, however, showed a spike in March. Due to year end rush to register properties and also to avoid paying long term capital gains tax, March numbers are traditionally higher.

Industry experts say that the weakness in residential real estate market is there because the consumer confidence post demonetisation is yet to come back. Ashutosh Limaye, head of research at JLL India told FE that recovery in real estate post any major event like demonetisation is always slow and prolonged.