Thu, 29th September 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Analysis” Category

The key takeaway from the OPEC ‘deal’

So, looking at it from a different angle … if your an oil producer, what are the positives that have come out of the meeting?
I reckon its that
1. Saudi Arabia has softened its stance on dealing with Iran
and 2. Saudi is showing some willingness to think about production cuts and higher prices
Otherwise though, it’s a crock.

OPEC production cut “deal” – what we know so far

Just waking up? OPEC have cobbled together an agreement (but not really)

 OPEC says it will limit output to 32.5 to 33 mln bpd (this compares to the most recent known group production at 33.24 mln bpd)
  • So, that’s a reduction of about 700K barrels per day 9depending on where in the range the cut comse to)
  • Now OPEC will try to reach an agreement with non-OPEC producers
  • A committee has been set up to choose how the cut will be allocated between members
  • The committee will report in November

If you’re a cynic on OPEC sticking with an agreement, here’s where I reckon the deal can break down, and quickly …

  • OPEC will try to reach an agreement with non-OPEC producers
  • A committee has been set up to choose how the cut will be allocated between members, to report in November
On the first point, just good luck with that. On the second point – how to allocate cuts has been, and will remain, the sticking point. It always is! And they’ve announced a committee to deal with it. Oh dear.
OK,, we’ll see. But don’t hold your breath (srsly, DO NOT hold your breath until November, that won’t work out well for anyone at all).

Overnight US Market :Dow Closed +110 points.S&P 500 Up 11 points

Stocks ended the day higher amid reports that OPEC, the Middle East oil cartel, has agreed to cut production amid an ongoing global glut of crude.

The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been in the red earlier in the afternoon, ended up 110 points, or 0.6%. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index climbed 0.5% and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2%.

A big rally in crude sparked the broader market rally. U.S.-produced crude was up $2.17 per barrel, or nearly 5%, to $46.87.

Oil prices jumped Wednesday after reports that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had agreed to slash production at a conference in Algiers. If it sticks — and that’s a big if — an accord could help ease the global glut of oil that has washed over the world in the last two years. OPEC member countries agreed to slash production by about 740,000 barrels per day to 32.5 million, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing anonymous sources.

The OPEC news pushed oil stocks sharply higher. The broad Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) was up 4.3%. Exxon-Mobil (XOM) was 3.8% higher and oil services firm Halliburton was up 3.9%.

Wall Street was also digesting fresh economic news. U.S. durable goods orders in August came in flat, but better than the 1.5% drop economists’ forecast. Still, the report of weak orders for long-lasting, expensive items such as refrigerators was viewed as a sign of economic weakness.

OPEC may announce agreement on output freeze but no full detail until November – RTRS sources

Reuters said a deal could come today, citing two sources

Intraday highs for WTI at $45.89.

It will be interesting to see what Iran accepts because they’ve been strident that they want to get back to 4m bpd or 4.2m bpd.

There’s plenty of misinformation going around. Even the ‘cut’ by Saudi Arabia is a bit of a mirage. Measuring quotas will also be challenging. For years OPEC countries violated quotas.

Algeria proposes 796K bpd OPEC cut at meeting – BBG

Algeria makes a proposal to cut production, according to a document cited by Bloomberg

  • The proposal would mean a 442K bpd cut for Saudi Arabia compared to August
  • The proposal would include a 3.7mbpd cap for Iran and 10.1 bpd for Saudi Arabia
  • Iran would be able to produce additional 52K bpd from current levels
  • Iraq production would be cut 135K bpd
  • UAE would lose 155K bpd
  • Nigeria and Libya would be exempt

Oil is back up to $45.20 after falling as low as $44.35. It rose around 35-cents on this set of headlines.

My thinking is that this proposal has already been rejected by Iran. They’ve consistently said they will pump 4 mbpd so I struggle to see this idea as having a chance.

Mumbai wealthiest city in India with total wealth of $820 bn

Image result for MUMBAI TUMBLRIndia’s financial capital Mumbai, home to 45,000 millionaires and 28 billionaires, is the wealthiest city in the country with total wealth of USD 820 billion, says a report. According to New World Wealth, Mumbai is followed by Delhi and Bengaluru at the second and third place respectively. While Delhi, home to 22,000 millionaires and 18 billionaires has total wealth of USD 450 billion, Bengaluru boasts of a total wealth of USD 320 billion. The city is home to 7,500 millionaires and 8 billionaires.

Total wealth refers to the private wealth held by all individuals.

The report defines ‘wealth’ as the net assets of a person. It includes all their assets (property, cash, equity, business interests) less any liabilities. The report excludes government funds from its figures.

As per the report, the total wealth held in the country amounts to USD 5.6 trillion (as of June 2016). The country is home to 264,000 millionaires and 95 billionaires in total. Other emerging cities in the country include, Surat, Ahmadabad, Visakhapatnam, Goa, Chandigarh, Jaipur and Vadodara, the report said.

MH17 downed by missile brought in from Russia, investigators claim

A Dutch-led criminal investigation into the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014 has said the aircraft was downed by an anti-aircraft missile brought in from Russia and fired from territory held by Russian-backed Ukrainian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

A team of more than 100 investigators, including from Australia and Malaysia, have been gathering evidence in an attempt to identify those responsible for the act that killed all 298 people onboard the Malaysian Airlines jet that was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur

The findings of the investigators follows the publication last year of a report by the Dutch air accident investigators that concluded the jet was brought down by a missile fired by a sophisticated Russian-made Buk surface-to-air system.

The Russians have repeatedly rejected any involvement and blamed the Ukrainian military. Moscow has changed its version of events a number of times and on Monday the Russian Ministry of Defence released data from radars and a drone monitoring the rebel-held side of the conflict that it said established that no projectiles approached the jet from the rebel side, suggesting the missile was fired from Ukrainian territory.

BlackBerry swings to Q2 loss but outlook beats expectations

BlackBerry revealed a stronger-than-expected profit outlook for the full year, even as the group said it swung to a net loss in its second quarter.

BlackBerry said it expects to post full-year adjusted profit, which excludes certain items, of break-even to a loss of five cents a share compared with Wall Street expectations of a 16 cent loss.

Chief executive John Chen added that BlackBerry’s “pivot to software is taking hold” and forecast 30 per cent growth in the software and services division in the full year.

The Canadian company has been trying to move away from the smartphones that helped it grow to prominence as it has faced intense competition from groups like Apple, the maker of the iPhone.