Archives for: Crude Category

WTI-BREAKS 72

 

CRUDE-NG-COPPER

As Expected

CRUDE MCX : Yesterday Recommended to Sell @ 4718 level ………………….Today Crashed to kiss low of 4554 level.

Natural Gas :Recommended to Buy @ 266 & Forget……………Just see ,Today it kissed  280.90 level.

Copper ,Nickel :Both Falling………………..Recommended yesterday Night to sell !

What else u want in life ?Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA

OPEC: The prisoner of Vienna

27 November 2014 - 6:19 am
 

Arthur C Clarke liked to say that any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Well, any sufficiently disorganised cartel is indistinguishable from a prisoner’s dilemma. Consider Opec.

An organised cartel fixes prices. It also throttles the competition. Opec, which controls four-tenths of the world’s oil production, has done its part for high prices recently. After 2010, Opec’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, had a production cost under $10 a barrel, while Brent crude traded over $100 a barrel, on average. They could have pumped more, driven prices down and made more money in the short term. They chose not to.

But Opec left prices so high and for so long that the competition flourished. Oil at $100-a-barrel rendered higher-cost projects such as US shale viable. And it encouraged fiscal reliance on high prices among Opec and non-Opec state producers, making it painful for any of them to cut production.
>> Read More

 

Here’s the latest from Vienna, where oil ministers from Opec are due to meet on Thursday.

Iranian oil minister Bijan Zangeneh said after his meeting with Ali al-Naimi, his counterpart from Saudi Arabia:

We had an excellent meeting with Mr Naimi. We will continue our discussion with Mr Naimi and other OPEC members

Asked whether there was an emerging agreement, he said there was “unity inside OPEC but we should monitor the market carefully and react at the convenient time”.

Things are not much clearer than they were when Mr Naimi went on his famous morning walk/jog. But some observers believe that Opec will reaffirm its 30m barrels per day production target on Thursday – even if that triggers a further oil market sell off.

 

Will Opec cut or not? Deutsche Bank reckons it will.

The oil cartel is meeting in Vienna this week, and there has been rampant speculation that its members will agree to a production cut to buttress the price of crude oil, which has tumbled by almost a third since its summer high.

If Opec does move, it will be the first quota reduction since 2009. The club’s oil ministers have failed in a bid to get non-Opec members like Russia and Mexico to collaborate on production cuts, but Deutsche Bank’s analysts argue that an Opec cut is “inevitable” in light of the oil market’s fundamentals.

According to OPEC’s market projections as well as DB’s own forecasts, the call on OPEC crude will fall to 29.2mmb/d in 2015 as a result of strong non-OPEC supply growth. As of last month, this compares to OPEC production, including Iraq, of 30.6mmb/d, which is 0.6mmbd above the current quota agreement. Together with a strengthening US dollar and lower economic growth forecasts, we expect this will compel OPEC into action.

Deutsche Bank argues that the question is whether Opec will be able to agree a coordinated cut at this meeting, and how big it will be.

The German bank’s analysts point out that over the past two decades an initial quota reduction has averaged about 1.1m barrels of oil a day, and reckon a cut of 1m would be necessary to stabilise the oil market. Assuming that the Opec oil ministers reach an agreement, the price of crude could recover quite quickly, the note said.

Outside of recessionary environments, OPEC action has been successful in that oil prices have typically rallied by 8.5% over the subsequent three month period. If history repeats itself it would imply Brent moving back to USD87/bbl by February 2015.

Below is a chart of the biggest winners and losers from lower oil prices.

 

Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has taken reporters along with him on his famous morning walk/jog at the Opec meeting in Vienna, but didn’t offer much colour on the meeting held yesterday with Russia, Venezuela and Mexico.

You all want to know the decision of the meeting but we haven’t even met yet.

Below is a typically Naimi-ish exchange with the Wall Street Journal’s reporter.

WSJ: Everyone wants to know what Saudi is thinking.

Naimi: Why?

WSJ: Because it’s a big producer.

Naimi: So is the US.

WSJ: Should the US cut?

Naimi: No, why should they?

Natural Gas-ASR

Yesterday Recommended :Above 266 level…………..No worry @ all

Yes ,Now Flared to kiss 274.70 level.

Above 275.25 if trades then ???

CR99

Yesterday Recommended to Sell @ 4718 level………………..No MAGIC ,No Miracle !

Just see ,Now crashed to kiss low of 4601 level.

Will it Break 4581 & sustains then ???

Yes ,Mint Money 24x7x366 Days………..No if and But 

CRUDE-CRASHED VERTICALLY

CRUDE-PARTY-25In Morning ,We Recommended …………………………Go Short in CRUDE MCX @  4718 LEVEL.

Power of chart ,Nothing else………………Yes in Protected post

With Target of 4632–4617 level.

Now NEWS is out and CRUDE MCX crashed to kiss low of 4622 level.

What Else U want in life ?

Crucial Update For Crude-Natural Gas

25 November 2014 - 10:37 am

CRUDE MCX-ASR

Now at  4718

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Who’s Ready For $30 Oil?

25 November 2014 - 10:30 am
 

How low can and will oil prices go, and what will the effects of those prices be? I bet you’ll have a hard time finding even just two people who have the same opinion on that. Not that it’s merely a matter of opinion, mind you, there are a great number of real life factors that come into play. It’s not an easy game.

OPEC gets together next week, and it’s a cartel divided. Many if not most of its members are suffering some kind of losses at present prices, and the obvious choice seems to be to cut output in order to raise prices again. But that’s not easy either, because at lower prices they need more output, not less, to minimize the damage. Besides, is non-OPEC producers don’t cut their output, OPWC cuts may do very little to lift prices.

After the recent plunge in prices, WTI is in the $75 per barrel range, and Brent around $80, the playing field has already been altered significantly. Some producers are fine with oil at $60, others need $120. Many Middle East governments need high prices to keep domestic unrest at bay, even if they can produce relatively cheaply. Some, like Venezuela, are already very close to what looks like a collapse. >> Read More

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.