Statement just out from Iraqi oil minister. 10 Jan
- hopes to reach OPEC-agreed level of 210k bpd by end -Jan
Elsewhere Kazakhistan cuts output by 20k bpd re OPEC deal
Oil prices had a little tick upward but short lived.
WTI currently $52.15 Brent $55.07
Crude oil trades near closing levels from yesterday
Weekly energy data from the EIA
- Prior was +614K
- Gasoline inventories +8307K vs +1000K expected
- Distillates +10,051K vs -800K expected
Those huge builds in gasoline and distillates outweigh the surprise build in oil. WTI is down to $53.40 from $54.00.
Global oil and natural gas prices are expected to remain volatile again in 2017, but fluctuate within the $40-60 per barrel range, Moody’s Investors Service said in a press release on Tuesday.
“The rating agency’s oil and natural gas price estimates — within a medium-term oil price band of $40-$60/bbl for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude globally and in North America — remain unchanged for 2017-19 from its November 2016 update,” the release stated. “Moody’s expects prices to remain volatile within this band.” In North America, the incoming Trump administration is expected to prioritize domestic oil and coal production, benefiting energy infrastructure projects in the short-term. Russia’s agreement to cut oil production is unlikely to hurt its oil companies, but Latin American companies will continue to face funding risk for several years due to tight market conditions, according to Moody’s. The oilfield services and drilling sector will likely be constrained globally by weak demand, overcapacity and high debt levels, the release also said.
This is the private survey, which comes out ahead of the official data (due today morning US time)
WTI crude oil seasonals
Oil is the big story of the first day of 2017 trading.
WTI crude was up more than 2.5% to a session high of $55.24 but has faded back to $53.90 and hardly higher on the day in the past hour of trading. Still, crude is up more than 20% since the OPEC decision on November 30.
A problem for crude is that it’s running into a seasonal squeeze. In January 2016 and January 2015, crude lost more than 9%. In the past 10 years, the average decline in January has been 3.68%.