Sat, 25th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Crude” Category

OIL – private inventory data shows ‘much bigger than expected’ build

Official data due Wednesday morning from the US, in the meantime this is from a private survey

  • Reuters polling showed analysts forecast that U.S. crude stockpiles rose 2.5 million barrels last week (5th straight weekly build)
  • … results are showing a “much bigger than expected build” (i.e bigger than the 2.5mln barrels in that Reuters poll) … build is more than 5 times what was expected in the poll
Gasoline inventory expected at a build of 1.1 million barrels
  • Actual comes in nearly 3 times large

EIA boosts 2018 US oil production forecast, cuts demand estimate

US Energy Information Administration sees less oil this year

  • EIA sees 100K bpd rise in production this year compared to 110K previously
  • Sees 2018 production 230K bpd more than had been previously expected

So the 2017 forecast was cut by 10K bpd and next year raised by 230K bpd.

  • 2017 demand forecast unchanged
  • 2018 demand to grow 330K bpd vs 370K bpd previously

EIA forecast

  • Forecasts 2017 US crude oil production to rise less than expected 100,000 BPD (vs 110,00 previously)
  • Forecast 2017 US oil demand growth by 260,000 BPD (Unchanged)
  • Forecasts 2018 US Crude oil production to rise by 230,000 BPD
  • Sees 2018 US oil demand growth by 330,000 BPD (prev. 370,000)

WTI CRUDE :Last Major Hurdle at $55.73


Above is Monthly chart of WTI CRUDE

3 Consecutive close above $ 55.73+ weekly close +++Monthly close if happens

Rally (Nonstop )upto $62.58—————-64.86++ will happen.

More Details to our Members.

OIL – Private inventory data shows bigger than expected build

Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories is out Wednesday morning (US time)

Ahead of the official data we get this private survey. Data out now.
  • Bigger than expected headline ‘crude’ build in stocks
  • bigger than expected build in gasoline inventory also
A Reuters poll showed the average expectations was for an increase in inventory of around 3.3 million barrels 

US EIA weekly oil inventories 2840K vs 2500K expected

Weekly oil inventory data

  • Prior was +2347K
  • Gasoline +6796K vs +1000K exp
  • Distillates +76K vs -1000K expected

The market won’t like that big build in gasoline but the oil and distillate numbers are probably a bit better than what the market was expecting after API.

API numbers released yesterday showed:

  • 2930K crude build
  • 4850K gasoline build
  • 1950K distillate build

WTI Slides After Bigger Than Expected Builds Across The Oil Complex

After two weeks of large crude and gasoline builds, API reported bigger than expected builds in crude, gasoline, and distillates (and smaller than expected draw in Cushing) which sent WTI prices tumbing, crossing back below the $53 Maginot Line once again.


  • Crude +2.93mm (+2.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -145k (-500k exp)
  • Gasoline +4.85mm
  • Distillates +1.95mm

The 3rd weekly build in crude in a row and 4th large gasoline build in a row along with a smaller than expected draw at Cushing…

Weekend oil output cut compliance meeting – smiles all ’round!

OPEC’s  monitoring committee met over the weekend

The happy theme is more widely spread, for example from Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih speaking with the media following the meeting:
  • Implementation of agreed cuts had been “fantastic”
  • He hoped for 100% compliance in February
Oversight of compliance will continue:
  • A technical joint committee (JTC) would be created comprising a representative for each of the five members of the monitoring committee and as well as the OPEC presidency (currently held by Saudi Arabia)
  • The JTC will cooperate with the OPEC Secretariat in compiling production data
  • Data to be presented to the ministerial monitoring committee by the 17th of every month
  • There will be two meetings of the JTC ahead of the next ordinary OPEC meeting in Vienna on May 25
  • The next JTC meeting will be in March in Kuwait


OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee say markets are on their way to rebalancing

the OPEC/non-OPEC deal monitoring committee met in Vienna today 22 Jan

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said earlier today after the first meeting:

“I am satisfied, I am optimistic and, as I said, the markets are on their way to rebalance and it’s happening,”

adding that compliance with the agreement, which calls for cuts to begin this month, had been “fantastic“.

“Usually non-OPEC would raise their production to compensate for voluntary cuts by OPEC. Now, we are seeing voluntary cuts by both sides,”

Some 1.5 million bpd in crude production had already been taken out of the market last week he said.

“The other 300,000 bpd, for all I know, is still happening,” saying that he hoped for 100% compliance in February.

The next meeting was scheduled for after 17 March they also announced today.

More from Reuters here

I’m heading back out now. Enjoy the rest your week-end one and all. Thanks again, as always, for your fantastic support and input.

I wish you good trading this coming week and hopefully we can help make/save you a few pips along the way.

El-Falih Oil rebalancing on its way he says