Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Crude” Category

Saudi Arabia has exceeded production cut target – oil minister

Saudi Arabia has already made more than its agreed share of output cuts and is confident that Opec’s deal with non-Opec members to trim production would hold, its oil minister said.

Khalid al-Falih said “we have already exceeded it” when asked about the kingdom’s participation in the recently implemented deal among 25 nations to trim output to support prices.

Addressing the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, Mr Falih said he was confident that the deal would return the market to balance more quickly.

“I believe the agreement between Opec and non-Opec will hold,” he said, rejecting speculation that compliance would be weak.

US EIA crude oil inventories 4097k vs 1500k exp

US EIA oil inventories week ending 6 January 2017

  • Prior -7051k
  • Cushing -579k vs 300k exp. Prior 1074k
  • Gasoline 5023k vs 2750k exp. Prior 8307k
  • Distillates 8356k vs 2600k exp. Prior 10051k
  • Refinery utilisation 1.60% vs 0.15% exp. Prior 1.0%
  • Production 8.946m vs 8.770m

US oil output to rise 1.3% in 2017, EIA says

US oil production has turned a corner after a long period of weak petroleum prices, the government said, with volumes rising for the first time since early 2015.

The Energy Information Administration forecast that oil output from the US will increase 1.3 per cent to 9m barrels per day in 2017, abandoning an earlier prediction of a 0.9 per cent fall.

In the first forecast for 2018 in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the statistical agency said US crude production will rise another 3.3 per cent, or 300,000 b/d, to 9.3m b/d. Production hit bottom last September, EIA said.

Oil – private inventory data shows a headline build

This is a private weekly survey of stock of oil

The official data hits on Wednesday morning US time but for now this is what we get. Sometimes it even bears a passing resemblance to the official data!
The ‘expected’ for this was a 1.2mln barrel build in headline US crude stocks (Reuters polling), the result is of a larger than expected build for the headline stocks of crude

Saudis cut oil output to fully implement OPEC pledge: WSJ

Crude oil trades near closing levels from yesterday

The WSJ is reporting that the Saudi’s have cut oil output to fully implement the OPEC pledge. 
Crude oil futures are trading a $53.29 near the closing level from yesterday. 
Crude oil remains between $50 and $55 per barrel. The 50, 100 and 200 hour MA are between $53.03 and $53.51.  We trade between those MA levels.  Traders may just take clues from the next move.  IN favor of the bulls is the floor developed at the $52.12 level in trading on Tuesday and Wednesday. That was the same low area from December 22 (see blue circles).  We still need that push above the MA though. 

EIA weekly oil inventories -7051K vs -2000K expected

Weekly energy data from the EIA

  • Prior was +614K
  • Gasoline inventories +8307K vs +1000K expected
  • Distillates +10,051K vs -800K expected

Those huge builds in gasoline and distillates outweigh the surprise build in oil. WTI is down to $53.40 from $54.00.