Wed, 22nd February 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “Crude” Category

OIL – Russia’s Putin sees high probability of oil freeze

Reuters with headline comment from Putin

  • On oil – Russia ready to freeze output at current level
  • Will not be difficuly for Russia to freeze oil output
  • Sees high probability of oil freeze to be reached, no damage to Russiona oil firms
  • Sees no contradictions within OPREC
  • Says cannot say if oil freeze deal would be reached 100%
Putin made non-oil remarks also, Brexit, Trump etc. Not clear if these were between guffaws.

DOE Crude oil inventories 5274K vs 1000K estimate

Gasoline inventories 746K vs -1100K

  • Crude oil inventories build 5274K versus  1000 K
  • Cushion crude oil inventories plus 691K vs. +40K
  • Gasoline inventories 746K vs -1100K
  • Distillates 310K vs -1750K est.
  • Refinery utilization 2.1% vs 0.50%
The inventory data showed higher builds than estimates across the board.
Crude oil futures are lower after the data with the price testing the lows from earlier today at $45.00 level. The low today has reached $45.03. The high reached $46.18.

Oil – private inventory data shows a bigger than expected build

The official data point comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday morning (US time)

This is a private survey. Sometimes the two reports are correlated! Sometimes … well … not.
The announcement of the bigger than expected build in inventory saw a price wobble, now the price is just a little lower than pre-announcement

CRUDE -Crucial update


Crude oil futures are up over 5.6% on production cut hopes

Those who know………………what we told in Evening (Already minted tons of money )

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OPEC output +240kbpd to 33.64mbpd in Oct

The latest OPEC report now out

The headline numbers are from OPEC’s secondary sources

  • Iran says it raised output to 3.92mbpd vs secondary sources estimate of 3.69mbpd
  • Leaves 2017 world oil demand growth forecast at 1.15mbpd
  • Expects 2017 non-OPEC supply to rise 230kbpd vs 240k prior
  • Raises 2017 OPEC demand est by 100kbpd to 32.69mbpd
  • Report implies 2017 global oil market will see average of 950kbpd surplus vs 800k prior

Not too far from the IEA output report yesterday. Whatever deal comes (or doesn’t come) in Vienna at the end of the month, everyone is still going gung-ho on pumping. 

IEA: 2017 could be another year of relentless global oil supply growth

Reuters with chatter from the International Energy Agency

  • 2017 could be another year of relentless global supply growth similar to 2016
  • There’s little evidence to suggest that economic activity is sufficiently robust to deliver higher oil demand growth
  • Says there is some risk that prices fall back if oil market surplus persists in 2017
  • Keeps 2016 global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.2mbpd and forecasts the same rate for 2017
  • Says global oil supply rose 800kbpd y/y to 97.8mbpd
  • OPEC crude output rose 230kbpd to a record 33.83mbpd in Oct
  • Sees Non-OPEC supply up 500kbpd in 2017 vs -900kbpd in 2016

The IEA aren’t as bullish on expected demand as OPEC and more so the Saudi’s.