That’s the (screenshot of the) summary of the summary, in very brief.
So that is slow going, but at least its moving in the right direction, For now.
This report summarizes the reports from all regional research divisions, mainly at the Bank’s branches in Japan, and is based on data and other information gathered for the meeting of general managers of the Bank’s branches held today.
The annual consumer price inflation eased to 3.41 percent in December, its lowest level in more than two years, helped by a sharp cooling in food prices, government data showed on Thursday.
Economists had expected annual retail inflation to come in at 3.57 percent last month, compared with 3.63 percent in November. Food inflation was 1.37 percent last month, lower than a revised 2.03 percent in November.
Meanwhile, the industrial production grew by 5.7 per cent in November against contraction of 3.4 per cent same month last year.
Don’t anyone accuse Brazil’s central bank of not being bold.
In a unanimous decision, the bank cut its policy interest rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, exceeding the consensus call for a 50bps cut and sharply picking up the pace on an easing cycle it began with two back-to-back cuts of 25bps each in October and November
In a statement, the bank said economic activity had fallen below expectations and that a recovery would take longer than previously anticipated.
It also noted data released earlier in the day showing inflation falling faster than expected to 6.3 per cent in the year to December 31 – the first time in two years it has been within the central bank’s target range of 4.5 per cent plus or minus 2 percentage points. Market economists expect it to end 2017 at 4.81 per cent, according to the central bank’s latest weekly survey.
The size of the cut will be welcomed by many, given the economy’s stubborn refusal to return to growth. The rebound expected by many when congress ditched president Dilma Rousseff last year has failed to happen. GDP contracted by 8 per cent over the past two years under Rousseff’s watch; her pro-growth, market-friendly successor, Michel Temer, was expected to turn things round quickly.
World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report … headlines:
Forecasts global real GDP growth at 2.7% in 2017 vs 2.3% in 2016
Forecasts advanced economies’ growth at 1.8% in 2017 (vs 1.6% in 2016)
Emerging/developing economies’ growth at 4.2% in 2017 (3.4% in 2016)
Forecasts US growth at 2.2% in 2017 (vs 1.6% in 2016) … they say their forecast excludes effects of any policy proposals from trump administration
Challenges for emerging market commodity exporters are receding, while domestic demand solid in emerging market commodity importers
Fiscal stimulus in US could generate faster domestic and global growth, but extended uncertainty over policy could keep global investment growth slow
Forecasts China’s growth slowing to 6.5% in 2017 (from 6.7% in 2016)
(Headlines via Reuters)
The World Bank looking at the recovering oil and commodity prices, noting this eases the pressures on emerging-market commodity exporters. Expects the recessions in Brazil and Russia to end.
As always the Bank notes uncertainties in its forecasts (all forecasters should), with upside uncertainty (in the short term at least) on US potential increased fiscal stimulus, tax cuts, infrastructure spending. Looking further out, though, a surge in debt load, higher interest rates & tighter financial conditions would have adverse effects.
Also downside potential on a more protectionist trade stance.