With China’s gross domestic product widely pegged to maintain growth of 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, some official economists and state-backed think tanks are already predicting growth will slow markedly in the second quarter.
Zhang Baoliang, a researcher at the economic forecasting department of the State Information Center, was cited by the state-run Securities Times on Monday as predicting growth could slow in Q2 in the face of low external demand, a rising tide of “de-globalisation” and protectionism, uncertain policy outlook from the US, persistent economic imbalances in China and likely reduction in domestic sales of automobiles and housing.
The paper cited Mr Zhang and a number of other economists as predicting growth of 6.8 per cent in the first quarter.
But it also pointed to a forecast from the Institute of Finance and Economics at the influential Academy of Social Sciences that foresaw growth of slowing to 6.7 per cent in the first half of 2017, and which described full-year growth of 6.5 per cent as “no problem”.
More bluntly, Peking University’s Economic Policy Research Group has forecast GDP growth gradually slowing to 6.5 per cent over the next three quarters, bringing the annual rate to around 6.6 per cent.
At present a median estimate from economists compiled by Bloomberg predicts GDP growth for the first quarter will come in at 6.8 per cent year on year, with 16 of the 36 economists surveyed forecasting exactly that rate.
US inflation expectations slid to their lowest level of the year on Thursday, in a further sign that the so-called Trump trade is on pause.
Benchmark 10-year breakeven rates, a market measure of inflation expectations, fell to 1.95 per cent, their lowest level since the end of December. Other indicators have also dipped lower, including 5-year breakeven rates.
Fed signalling (still early stages admittedly) a ‘tapering’ (or wind-down, or normalisation or whatever you’d like to call it)…
Add this to the tiny steps taken at the Bank of Japan (eg) …
and at least some early signalling from the ECB …
Not to mention the protectionist threat from the US, and the early frustrations with getting anything done by the new US administration
Dunno … but if the AUD is any guide to how the market is assessing all this stuff … The Australian dollar has tipped over and is lower again today. AUD is the world’s favourite ‘China proxy’, so maybe it is signalling a slowdown ahead on China.
Brazilian oil output in February was 14.6 percent higher year-over-year, according to the latest data released by ANP, the South American country’s petroleum regulator.
February production touched 2.676 million barrels per day, an ANP statement said, adding that natural gas output also rose 9.2 percent compared to the same month last year.
Figures released earlier in March from the nation’s Trade Ministry said that oil exports had jumped 94 percent year-over-year in February at 45.7 million barrels – a figure that topped the January 2017 record by 12 percent.
he surge in oil exports was a function of higher production from the offshore areas in Brazilian waters, where huge oil finds were made in the pre-salt and sub-salt layers in the past few years.