Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “US Market” Category

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -7 points.S&P500 ,Nasdaq closed positive

S&P ends the day up +0.19%. Nasdaq up +0.48%

The US broad market indices are ending the day with gains. The more narrow Dow was down marginally.
  • S&P index was up +0.19%
  • Nasdaq was up +0.48%
  • Dow was down -0.03%
After the over 1 % declines in all major indices yesterday, the gains today are a sigh of relief to the markets. However, the key Trump vote tomorrow will be make or break the market. So be aware that there may be fireworks ahead.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -238 points.(YTD is up 4.58% )

It has been 109 days since the market moved 1% either way.  All indices down over 1% today.

The US stock market hit the skids today on concerns about the Trump agenda for healthcare, taxes, regulation…you name it.
In the major indices:
  • The Nasdaq traded to new all time highs at the start of the day but ended the day down -1.83%. Ouch.
  • The S&P index fell by -1.24%. The high reached 2381.93. The low extended to 2341.90. The all time high for the S&P reached 2400.
  • The Dow fell by -1.14 points to 20667. It peaked above 21000.
All three indices are now down on the month with the :
  • S&P now down -0.83%,
  • The Dow down -0.69% and
  • The Nasdaq down -0.54%.
For the year, the indices are still higher so all is not lost.  Looking at the major indices, the:
  • Nasdaq up 7.63%
  • S&P up 4.70%
  • The Dow up 4.58%

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -8.50 points.Nasdaq Unchanged

Nasdaq unchanged.  Dow down about -0.04%

The S&P index is ending the day down about -0.20% on the day to 2273.50. The high reached 2379.55. The low 2369.66.
The Nasdaq was unchanged at 5901.50. The high reached 5915.12. The low 5888.
The Dow was down about 8.5 points to 20906. The high reached 20955. The low extended to 20885.
In other markets:
  • 2 year yield fell -2.6 bp to 1.288%
  • 5 year yield fell -3.1 bp to 1.986%
  • 10 year yield fell -3.7 bp to 2.462%
Spot gold is up $5 to $1234.39. The high reached 1235.78. The low 1229.15.
WTI Crude oil is trading at $48.21, down -$0.57
The snapshot of the major currencies shows the NZD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest (PM May will trigger Article 50 on March 29th). The USD was mixed with the dollar gaining against the GBP. It was down against the AUD and NZD and little changed against the other major currencies.

US Market :Overnight closed Flat


The US major indices are ending the day with modest changes:
  • S&P is down -3.14 points or -0.13%
  • Nasdaq is +0.24 points. Unchanged on the day
  • Dow is -17.74 points or -0.09%
For the week:
  • S&P is up 0.24%
  • Nasdaq is up 0.67%
  • Dow rose by 0.06%

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -16 points

S&P down -0.16%. Nasdaq unchanged.  Dow -0.08%

The major US stock indices are ending the trading day little changed in an up and down day.
  • The S&P is down -3.9 points or -0.16%
  • The Nasdaq is up +0.714 points or +0.01%
  • The Dow is down -16 points or -0.08%

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +113 points.S&P 500 up 20 points.

S&P up +0.84%. Nasdaq up +0.74%. Dow up +0.54%

The US stocks are ending the day with solid gains as the Fed is not too tight and not too soft but just right.
  • The S&P is ending up 19.81 points or 0.84%
  • The Nasdaq toyed with record closes at 5904 but settled at 5900.04, up 42.23 points or 0.74%
  • The Dow ended up 112.73 points or +0.54%
US rates are down:
  • 2 year 1.299%, -7.7 bp
  • 5 year 2.006% -12.2 bp
  • 10 year 2.496% -10.3 bp
  • 30 year 3.111%, -6.3 bp.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -44 points.S&P 500 down 8 points

S&P down -0.34% on the day.

The US major stock indices opened in the red and stayed in the red for the day.
The declines were led by the broad indices:
  • The S&P finished down -8 point or -0.34%
  • The Nasdaq finished down -19 points or -0.32%
  • The Dow industrial average fell by-44 points or -0.21%
10 of 11 sectors were in the red.
US interest rates fell back down before the FOMC hike, statement, growth and inflation estimates and of course Yellen’s testimony
  • 2 year yield is unchanged at 1.375%
  • 5 year yield is down 1.3 bp to 2.125%
  • 10 year yield is down 2.7 bp to 2.598%
  • 30 year yield is down 3.7 bp to 3.174%

Market Doubts of Three Fed Hikes This Year Caps Dollar

Bringing forward expectations of a Fed hike from May-June to March was worth something for the dollar, but to get more now, the market may need to recognize the risk of three (or more) hikes this year.  With the strong February jobs growth and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in hourly earnings, rarely does the market’s confidence in an event surpass current expectations for a hike on March 15.
However, the market sees around a one-in-three or a one-in-four chance of a third hike this year. The risks for the updated forecasts from the Federal Reserve seem asymmetrically tilted higher, more rate hikes than fewer by more members.  The hawkishness of regional presidents may be underestimated.  The data and the global climate are conducive for expediting the normalization process.  The hawks will likely feel vindicated by recent developments and may press their case with more vigor.
The focus of the Fed has arguably shifted.  Previously, the issue was whether the data would confirm that the economy was evolving toward the Fed’s targets.  It did.  Rather than focus on the data points per se, officials appear more confident of the direction and resilience of the economy and prices.  They now are looking for opportunities, which helps explain the campaign to prepare the market for the March 15 move.
Still, the dollar’s technical tone has deteriorated, and the risk is on the downside over the next several sessions.   Our working hypothesis is that the dollar’s recovery that began in early February against most of the majors ended and a correction has begun,   For the Dollar Index, this means potential toward 100.75 and possibly 100.40.  The former is the 50% retracement of that rally and coincides with the 100-day average (~100.80). The latter is the 61.8% retracement.  Alternatively, if the Dollar Index has carved out a double top near 102.25, the neckline is around 101.20 (38.2% of the rally is ~101.10).  On a break of the neckline, the measuring objective is 100.
The euro’s pre-weekend rally saw it surpass the 50% retracement objective of its decline from the February 2 high near $1.0830.  That retracement was around $1.0660, and the 61.8% retracement is closer to $1.0700.  The euro’s five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time in a month.  The single currency may be tracing out a double bottom at $1.05  The neckline is $1.0630.  The measuring objective is around $1.0760.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 44 points .S&P 500 up 8 points

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 7.73 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,372.60. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 44.79 points, or 0.2 percent, to 20,902.98. The Nasdaq composite added 22.92 points, or 0.4 percent, to 5,861.73.

Stocks had mostly fallen since March 1, the day indexes soared to their most recent record highs.

Overall it was a slow week for stocks. The current bull market had its eighth anniversary, but six-week winning streaks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended, and the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks took its biggest loss in three months.

U.S. employers added 235,000 jobs in February, according to the Department of Labor. The gains in hiring and pay, along with higher consumer and business confidence since the November election, could lift spending and investment in coming months and accelerate economic growth.

A poor jobs report was probably the last thing that could have stopped the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week.