S&P up +0.84%. Nasdaq up +0.74%. Dow up +0.54%
The US stocks are ending the day with solid gains as the Fed is not too tight and not too soft but just right.
- The S&P is ending up 19.81 points or 0.84%
- The Nasdaq toyed with record closes at 5904 but settled at 5900.04, up 42.23 points or 0.74%
- The Dow ended up 112.73 points or +0.54%
US rates are down:
- 2 year 1.299%, -7.7 bp
- 5 year 2.006% -12.2 bp
- 10 year 2.496% -10.3 bp
- 30 year 3.111%, -6.3 bp.
S&P down -0.34% on the day.
The US major stock indices opened in the red and stayed in the red for the day.
The declines were led by the broad indices:
- The S&P finished down -8 point or -0.34%
- The Nasdaq finished down -19 points or -0.32%
- The Dow industrial average fell by-44 points or -0.21%
10 of 11 sectors were in the red.
US interest rates fell back down before the FOMC hike, statement, growth and inflation estimates and of course Yellen’s testimony
- 2 year yield is unchanged at 1.375%
- 5 year yield is down 1.3 bp to 2.125%
- 10 year yield is down 2.7 bp to 2.598%
- 30 year yield is down 3.7 bp to 3.174%
Bringing forward expectations of a Fed hike from May-June to March was worth something for the dollar, but to get more now, the market may need to recognize the risk of three (or more) hikes this year. With the strong February jobs growth and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in hourly earnings, rarely does the market’s confidence in an event surpass current expectations for a hike on March 15.
However, the market sees around a one-in-three or a one-in-four chance of a third hike this year. The risks for the updated forecasts from the Federal Reserve seem asymmetrically tilted higher, more rate hikes than fewer by more members. The hawkishness of regional presidents may be underestimated. The data and the global climate are conducive for expediting the normalization process. The hawks will likely feel vindicated by recent developments and may press their case with more vigor.
The focus of the Fed has arguably shifted. Previously, the issue was whether the data would confirm that the economy was evolving toward the Fed’s targets. It did. Rather than focus on the data points per se, officials appear more confident of the direction and resilience of the economy and prices. They now are looking for opportunities, which helps explain the campaign to prepare the market for the March 15 move.
Still, the dollar’s technical tone has deteriorated, and the risk is on the downside over the next several sessions. Our working hypothesis is that the dollar’s recovery that began in early February against most of the majors ended and a correction has begun, For the Dollar Index, this means potential toward 100.75 and possibly 100.40. The former is the 50% retracement of that rally and coincides with the 100-day average (~100.80). The latter is the 61.8% retracement. Alternatively, if the Dollar Index has carved out a double top near 102.25, the neckline is around 101.20 (38.2% of the rally is ~101.10). On a break of the neckline, the measuring objective is 100.
The euro’s pre-weekend rally saw it surpass the 50% retracement objective of its decline from the February 2 high near $1.0830. That retracement was around $1.0660, and the 61.8% retracement is closer to $1.0700. The euro’s five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time in a month. The single currency may be tracing out a double bottom at $1.05 The neckline is $1.0630. The measuring objective is around $1.0760.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 7.73 points, or 0.3 percent, to 2,372.60. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 44.79 points, or 0.2 percent, to 20,902.98. The Nasdaq composite added 22.92 points, or 0.4 percent, to 5,861.73.
Stocks had mostly fallen since March 1, the day indexes soared to their most recent record highs.
Overall it was a slow week for stocks. The current bull market had its eighth anniversary, but six-week winning streaks for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended, and the Russell 2000 index of small-company stocks took its biggest loss in three months.
U.S. employers added 235,000 jobs in February, according to the Department of Labor. The gains in hiring and pay, along with higher consumer and business confidence since the November election, could lift spending and investment in coming months and accelerate economic growth.
A poor jobs report was probably the last thing that could have stopped the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates next week.
S&P down -0.30%. Nasdaq down -0.26%. Dow down -0.15%
The US major indices are all closing lower for the day.
- S&P index is closing down -0.29%
- The NASDAQ composite index is down -0.26%
- The Dow industrial average is closing down -0.15%
In other markets:
- Spot gold is down $9.41 to $1215.87
- Spot silver is down $.28 to $17.49
- WTI crude is trading at $53.10 down $.10 on the day or -0.19%
in the US debt market:
- 2 year note 1.325%, +2 basis points
- 5 year note 2.045%, +2.6 basis points
- 10 year note 2.512%, +1.2 basis points
- 30 year bond 3.114%, plus one basis point
S&P down -0.33%, Nasdaq down -0.37%
The US major stock indices are ending the day in the red but off low levels
- S&P was down -7.81 points or -0.33%. The low reached about -16 points
- Nasdaq was down -21.577 points or -0.37%. The low for it extended to around -43 points
- The Dow ended down -51.37 points or -0.24%. The low water mark was down about -93 points.
In the US debt market today, yield were up with the longer end rising the most.
- 2 year 1.301%, unchanged for the day
- 5 year 2.017%, up about 1 bp
- 10 year 2.4925%, up 1.4 bp
- 30 year 3.098%, up 2.6 bp
Spot gold was down -$8.60 or down -0.71%
Spot silver is down -$0.20 or -1.14%
Stocks inched upward Friday after remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen pointed to a rate hike later this month.
The Dow and S&P 500 posted fractional gains. The blue chips barely finished higher on the day, up 3 points and staying above 21,000, ending at 21,005.71.
Climbing 0.2% was the Nasdaq composite, to 5870.75.
“At our meeting later this month, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate,” Yellen said in a 1 p.m. ET speech at the Executives’ Club of Chicago.
While Yellen couched her remark in conditional terms that depend on economic data, she preceded it by citing a job market that has been “strengthening” and inflation that has been “rising toward our target” of 2% annually.
Several other Fed officials in recent days have indicated the Fed’s policymaking committee is likely to raise its benchmark short-term rate at a March 14-15 meeting.
S&P down -0.59%
The US major stock indices are going out near lows levels
- S&P index is closing at 2382, –14.15 points or -0.59%
- NASDAQ composite index closing at 5861.22, down -42.8 points or -0.73%
- Dow is down -112.58 points to 21002. That is down -0.53%
Caterpillar was a big drag on the Dow today as federal investigators raided corporate head quarters for tax documents.
Snap came to the market. The IPO was priced at $17 per share, and opened at $24. It is closing at $24.48.
In the US debt market:
- The 2 year not is trading at 1.312% up 2.8 bp. The yield is the highest in 7 years
- 10 year yield is at 2.483% up 3 b