Thu, 29th June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


The pencils have been sharpened for the first NFP forecasts of 2017 – What’s the trade for today?

Yes, I know it’s Dec data but it’s the first release in 2017

It’s nearly time for the most exciting data point of the month.

Here’s a run down of the numbers;

NFP expected in at 178k Reuters, 175k BBG
BBG hi est 221k
BBG Lo 125k
Nov 178k
Average hourly earnings 0.3% exp vs -0.1% prior m/m
2.8% exp vs 2.5% prior (that’s a pretty high expectation)
The top 5 NFP callers are thus;

Jim O’Sullivan – High Frequency Econ – 155k
Ryan Sweet – Moody’s – 180k
P de Bruin/M Cabezas ABN Amro – 185k
Stephan Buu CTI Capital – 162k
Robert Dyer – Comerica – 163k

NFP pickers

Picking a guess out of thin air, I’m going for a miss around the 150k mark.

More importantly, the trade. As I think were in USD rally selling mode right now, my choice trade would be a good number and a pop in the buck to fade.

Levels wise, 116.75/80, 117.00, 117.15/20 & 117.75/80 are worth watching. 117.75/80 would be a very juicy level that I’d look to short.

Below, 115.55/65, 115.00 & 114.70/75 are the numbers I’d watch as places of possible strong support.

The only possible fly in the ointment to fading a pop is if those earnings numbers are strong. The year on year number is set very high so a miss will help in a strategy to fade a beat in the payrolls number. A good number and that earnings matching or beating may cause a prolonged rally as the bulls pile back in on hike hopes.

As always, stay safe, pick your levels and be quick and nimble.

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