Posts Tagged: bank of japan

BOJ Q2 Tankan out now

01 July 2015 - 5:59 am
 

BOJ Q2 Tankan:

  • Tankan Large Manufacturing Index, 15 vs. expected 12, prior was 12 … today’s result is the first improvement for three quarters and the highest since March of 2014
  • Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook, 16 vs expected 14, prior was 10
  • Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing  Index, 23 vs. expected 22, prior was 19 … third consecutive quarter of improvement (also highest since March of 2014)
  • Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing  Outlook, 21 vs. expected 23, prior was 17
  • Large All-Industry Capex for Q2, 9.3% vs. expected 5.3%, prior was -1.2%
  • Tankan Small Manufacturing Index, 0 vs. expected 1, prior was 1 
  • Tankan Small Manufacturing Outlook, 0 vs. expected 1, prior was 0
  • Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Index, 4 vs. expected 5, prior was 3
  • Tankan Small Non-Manufacturing Outlook, 1 vs. expected 3, prior was -1

>> Read More

Nikkei closes up 0.92% at 20174.24

19 June 2015 - 11:57 am
 

Japan stock market close 19 June 2015

  • +183 points

Still nothing from the BOJ but maybe they’ve been waiting for the close, or haven’t finished all the donuts yet

BOJ announcement: NO CHANGE

19 June 2015 - 8:40 am
 

Announcement from the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting 

  • Keeps monetary policy steady, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 80 trln yen
  • BOJ’s policy decision was made by 8-1 vote
  • BOJ board member Kiuchi votes against policy decision
  • Kiuchi proposed tapering annual jgb purchases to 45 trln yen, which was turned down by majority vote
  • Kiuchi proposed keeping asset buying, zero rates for as long as needed under flexible price target, which was turned down by 8-1
  • BOJ says will cut number of policy-setting meetings from next year
  • Number of policy-setting meetings each year will be cut to 8 times from current 14
  • BOJ says Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately, keeps assessment unchanged
  • BOJ says to issue outlook report on economy, prices 4 times annually from next year, vs 2 times now
  • Will release document containing summary of opinions presented at each policy meeting about a week after each meeting
  • Will continue to issue Minutes of its policy meetings as it does now

 

Next up from the Bank of Japan, Governor Kuroda press conference at 0630GMT

 

Minutes from the April 30 Bank of Japan meeting:

  • Some expressed view that private consumption lacked momentum
  • Members agreed that private consumption is likely to remain resilient due to improving incomes
  • One member said industrial production in April-June could be more or less flat due to inventory adjustments

Full text is here

More (via Reuters):

  • Members agreed that Japan can exceed its potential growth rate from fy 2015 through fy 2016
  • Most members said in fy 2017 growth could slow to a level below potential growth rate due to sales tax hike
  • A few members said cpi would not reach 2 pct during forecast period which covers fy 2017
  • Members agreed that mid- to long-term inflation expectations are rising on the whole
  • Many members said risks to prices are skewed to downside due to uncertainty about inflation expectations
  • Members agreed that cpi falling to zero might affect inflation expectations
  • Members agreed that cpi falling to zero might affect inflation expectations 
 

No change in policy from the Bank of Japan

  • Revises up assessment for exports
  • Revises up assessment of factory output
  • Consumer inflation likely to slow for time being reflecting oil price falls
  • Core consumer inflation, when excluding effect of last year’s sales tax hike, moving around 0.5 pct
  • Private consumption has remained resilient but recovery in some areas has been sluggish
  • Japan’s economy likely to continue recovering moderately as a trend
  • Keeps monetary policy steady, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 80 trln yen
  • Policy decision was made by 8-1 vote
  • BOJ board member Kiuchi votes against keeping policy steady, says policy before October 31 easing was appropriate
  • Kiuchi proposed making 2 pct inflation target a medium- to long-term goal, which was turned down by 8-1 vote
 

Minutes from the Bank of Japan December 18/19 meeting … looks like pretty stadard stuff from the:

  •  Japan economy has continued to recover moderately
  • BOJ to keep easing until 2% inflation stable

Full text

–Developments have rendered these Minutes perhaps a little redundant

–More (via Reuters):

  • Members shared recognition global markets had shown some nervousness
  • Some members said while oil price falls had positive effect on global economy, it could risk destabilising markets
  • Some members said political turmoil in Greece might have adverse effects on euro-area economy
  • Some members said oil price falls would support economic activity through rises in corporate profits, households’ real income
  • One member said there might be growing tendency among firms to postpone capex plans
  • Some members said various surveys showed business sentiment had turned cautious
  • Many members said relatively weak developments had been recently observed in consumer sentiment surveys
  • Many members said oil price falls were likely to exert downward pressure on CPI for time being
  • Many members said oil price falls would have positive effect on economy, push up prices long-term
 

Over the weekend, we asked rhetorically whether “The BoJ is The Next SNB?” after one BOJ official was overheard warning that “we have caused tremendous trouble for the financial industry,” and many others growing anxious about continuing its massive purchases of government bonds and pressure from the financial industry is strengthening by the day “to scale back monetary easing soon.” Overnight, it was none other than Goldman who reiterated precisely what we said, however when looking at the BOJ from the “other” angle - that of the central bank not doing enough to convince markets it will do everything in its power, i.e., print, until inflation is a “stable” 2%.

Here is Goldman’s Naohiko Baba with why the BOJ at risk of losing credibility over its price commitment” 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its monetary policy unchanged, as we expected, at the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 20-21. Two noteworthy points from Governor Kuroda’s subsequent press conference were as follows:

 

1. The BOJ released its interim assessment of the October Outlook Report at the MPM, and sharply lowered its core CPI outlook – for FY2014 to +0.9% from +1.2%, and for FY2015 to +1.0% from +1.7% – reflecting the recent slide in crude oil prices. However, the BOJ maintains its view that its 2% price stability target is likely to be achieved by around FY2015.

 

2. The MPM did not discuss lowering the 10 bp interest rate on excess bank reserves, despite heightened expectations among foreign investors in particular ahead of the meeting.

 

>> Read More

 

And the hits just keep on coming.

A few days after the SNB shocked the world when it became the first central bank to pull out of its currency war with the ECB, leading to an epic defeat not only for the Swiss economy whose exports are now set to crash and various brokers and macro hedge funds who were short the Swissy (even as the SNB is nursing an epic balance sheet as as result of its failed 3+ year intervention), and following the latest Chinese snub of its overzealous stock gamblers, next up on the “shock and awe” bandwagon may be none other than the Bank of Japan (something we noted over the weekend in “Is The BoJ The Next SNB?”), where according to Reuters, any hopes for even more QE may be dashed after a ruling party lawmaker and one of the architects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” policies said that the Bank of Japan “does not need to ease monetary policy further this year unless the economy is hit by a severe external shock.”

As a reminder, it was just hours after the Fed’s QE ended on October 31, when the BOJ shocked markets with expanding its own QE even further, sending the USDJPY soaring above 120. The problem is that with the Nikkei tracking the USDJPY tick for tick, implying all risk gains come at the expense of currency losses, last Firday the Nikkei had fully roundtripped to the level seen just after the announcement, suggesting any further gains would require even more easing. Easing, which will not come unless Japan’s economy, already in freefall, literally implodes.  >> Read More

 

Reuters Tankan results out:

  • Japan manufacturers index +10 in December vs +13 in November, unchanged from September
  • Non-manufacturers index +23 in December vs +18 in November, up 1 point from September
  • Manufacturers March index seen at +7, non-manufacturers +24

There is a Bank of Japan Tankan Survey and a Reuters Tankan Survey.

Both are surveys of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan.

The BOJ Tankan is conducted quarterly, the Reuters Tankan is monthly.

 

The two-day Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy board meeting has concluded, with the announcement out now.

  • Keeps plan for 80tln yen annual rise in monetary base
  • BOJ’s policy decision was made by 8-1 vote
  • Board member Kiuchi voted against decision to keep monetary policy steady
  • Kiuchi opposed decision because he felt previous monetary policy steps were appropriate
  • Kiuchi proposed making 2 pct inflation target a medium- to long-term goal, which was turned down by 8-1 vote
  • Japan’s economy making some weak movements mainly on output but continues to recover moderately as a trend
  • BOJ raises assessment on exports
  • Japan CPI likely to hover around current positive levels for time being
  • Output remains somewhat weak
  • Capex in gradual uptrend as corporate profits improve
  • Impact of sales tax hike on consumption subsiding as a whole
  • Housing investment appears to be bottoming out

Quick headlines via Reuters

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