The BOJ do a Tankan survey every 3 months, while Reuters conducts one each month (a total of 253 firms responded to the poll of 400 big and medium-sized firms taken April 2-14).
- Japan manufacturers index +25 in April, up 7 points from the +18 in March (the highest since August 2007)
- Japan non-manufacturers index at record +35 in April, up 4 points from March
- Japan manufacturers July index seen at +17, non-manufacturers +21
-Confidence at Japanese manufacturers grew in April for the first time in three months
- A more moderate dip is seen over the next three months-
This augurs well, but it does dent hopes for more BOJ stimulus
- Industrial Production for February m/m (final): prior was -2.3 %
- Industrial Production for February y/y: prior was 6.9%
- Capacity Utilization m/m for February: prior was 5.9%
Then, at 0615GMT, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda will speak at the 89th Convention of the Trust Companies Association of Japan
Minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) March 10-11 policy board meeting:
- Members agreed that prices, economy moving in line with BOJ forecasts
- Members agreed they need to monitor risk to markets posed by Ukraine and geopolitical risk
- Agreed that weakness in exports is temporary and that exports will pick up gradually in future
- Agreed than increases are wages are spreading
- One member said that its possible that the impact of the weak yen on consumer prices has grown
- One member said that inflation in H2 of 2013 was somewhat higher than expected
- Members agreed that consumer spending is to remain firm after the sales tax hike due to improvements in the job market and in wages
-Again, it appears from comments that there is no pressure felt at the BOJ to ease further just yet.
Link to the full text
The results of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan Survey (survey of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan). Its conducted quarterly.
Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1, 17
- expected 19, prior was 16
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q1, 24
- expected 24, prior was 20
Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q1, 8
- expected 13, prior was 14
Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1, 13
Bank of Japan (BOJ) release of the February monetary policy meeting minutes
- Members agreed economy, prices moving in line with forecasts
- Members agreed economy to remain on recovery path after sales tax hike
- Many members agreed downside risks posed by overseas economies have receded
- Many members agreed that measures to increase bank lending very important for escaping deflation
- One member said the US economy to pick up in Q2, helping offset impact of Japan’s sales tax
- Many BOJ members said loan program changes can show strong intention
Full text: Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on February 17 and 18, 2014 [PDF 107KB]
Kozo Yamamoto … no reasoning cited. But we’ll see. Maybe he foresees an economic slump in the wake of the sales tx hike due April 1 and more BOJ easing? At least he’s given himself a 10 yen range to play around in
- Keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote
- Keep increasing monetary base rate at 60-70 trln yen
- keeps economic assessment unchanged
- Says economy continues to recover moderately
- Voted 8 – 1 against Kuichi proposal to make 2% inflation goal a medium- to long-term goal
- BOJ cuts their view on exports, saying they have recently leveled off
- Says pick up in capital spending has become increasingly evident
- Says industrial output has been increasing at a somewhat accelerated pace
Full: Statement on Monetary Policy [PDF 180KB]
This week brings a slew of central bank meetings: At the forefront will be the BOJ meeting on Tuesday where no changes to monetary policy are expected. However, we will be watching the commentary closely for hints to further monetary easing in the coming months. Goldman, and others, still expect the BOJ to provide additional stimulus in the second quarter of this year as the impact of the consumption tax hike on the economy becomes visible – it is that expectation that sent the USDJPY above 100 in late 2013 and any disappointment by the BOJ will certainly have an adverse impact on the all important Yen carry pair.
In terms of the key data to watch this week, the themes of recent weeks remain the same: US activity data, with retail sales and the U. Michigan Consumer sentiment survey the main releases, European inflation trends (French and German HCPI data on Thursday and Friday, respectively), and finally external balances in EM. Within that group, the latest data points for trade and current account balances in India, Turkey and South Africa will receive the most attention.
Monday, March 10
- Japan Current Account Balance (Jan): Consensus -¥1411.8B, previous -¥638.6B
- Japan Economy Watcher Survey (Feb): Consensus 54.1, previous 54.7
- Israel MPC minutes
- Canada Housing Starts (Feb): Consensus 190k saar, previous 180.1k
- Also interesting: France/Italy/Turkey IP, Israel GDP, Norway CPI
Tuesday, March 11
- Japan BOJ meeting: We and consensus expect no change to current policy measures.
- US Wholesale Trade (Jan): Consensus +0.5%, previous +0.3%
- Italy GDP (Q4, Final): Consensus +0.1% qoq, previous +0.1%
- Israel Current Account Balance (4Q): Previous US$363mn
- Also Interesting: UK/Brazil IP, Ukraine GDP, Hungary Consumer Prices >> Read More
20 February 2014 - 11:54 am
The Bank of Japan is nearing the end of its strategy to avoid additional credit easing at an early date without throwing financial markets into confusion.
The BOJ adopted the strategy after the turn of the year, amid growing expectations among overseas investors that it would promptly implement additional easing, such as before the consumption tax increase in April.
The central bank put the brakes on such expectations in a statement issued after its policy board meeting in January. At the following meetings on Monday and Tuesday, the BOJ adopted a “quasi-easing” measure by deciding to expand its special loan support fund program so that it could save additional easing.
Though an increase in market players forecasting further easing in July is a favorable development for the BOJ, uncertainties remain.
At a press conference Tuesday after the two-day board meeting, BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said anew that the sales tax increase will have only limited adverse effects on economic activity. Kuroda thus held expectations of early additional easing in check, as he did in January.
As the latest decision to double the scale of the loan support program and extend it for one year from its scheduled expiry at the end of March is expected to favorably affect financial institutions, stock prices rose considerably, led by purchases of bank stocks. The preservation of additional easing measures has proved successful for now. >> Read More