Above is Monthly Chart of  : Government Bond 10 Year

Just Click to Enlarge the CHART 

On Friday it closed at 7.41 level 

Below 7.85 level ,We See India Bond Yield to tumble upto 7.096 ,6.843 level very soon !!

If this is the Indication then it means will see More Firework in Bank Stocks ,Bank Nifty in coming Weeks and if Bond Yield to tumble then it means some unexpected move from RBI on card in next month Meeting ??

Government Bond 10Y | Notes

A government bond is a security issued by a national government denominated in the country’s own currency. The most common process of issuing bonds is through underwriting. In underwriting, one or more securities firms or banks, forming a syndicate, buy an entire issue of bonds from an issuer and re-sell them to investors. The security firm takes the risk of being unable to sell on the issue to end investors. However government bonds are instead typically auctioned. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The first ever government bond was issued by the English government in 1693 to raise money to fund a war against France. In the past, Government bonds were usually referred to as risk-free bonds, because governments could easily devaluate their currencies or raise taxes to redeem the bond at maturity. However, the recent downgrade of the United States debt rating and the on-going sovereign debt crisis in the European Union has cast serious doubts into those risk-free assumptions. Moreover, unless governments issue inflation-indexed bonds, there is inflation risk, in that the principal repaid at maturity will have less purchasing power than anticipated if the inflation outturn is higher than expected. 

Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA

Barrons came out with their 2013 Outlook today and I was not surprised to see that all of the forecasts are positive.  There isn’t a single forecaster who expected the S&P 500 to fall this year.  There is only one forecaster who expects the 10 year bond yield to fall from its current level of 1.7% and he only sees a 10 bps decline to 1.6%.  Here’s the round-up:

Stephen Auth, Federated Investors

S&P Year-end Target: 1660

2013 GDP Growth: 1.4%

2013 End 10 Year US Treasury Yield: 2%

Barry Knapp, Barclays

S&P Year-end Target: 1525

2013 GDP Growth: 2.1%

2013 10 Year US Treasury Yield: 1.6% >> Read More

Lowest since early April.

Meanwhile, Italy 10 year govt bond yield down -7  bps at 4.52%.  Lowest in nearly two years.

Italy’s Tesoro is looking to sell EUR 4-6 bln of  5yr 3.5% Nov 2017 BTP and 10yr 5.5% Nov 2022 BTP’s

Results are due around 1010GMT

• Market News sourced story:  There is little chance Spain will seek ESM aid this year and ECB apparently not keen to launch OMT bond buying programme
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield rises, up 12 bps at 5.82%
• German FinMin: Weak global economy stifles ability to solve euro zone crisis
• Spanish auction results
• Bad loans at Italy’s banks rose 15.3% in September – Bank of Italy
• Greek Pasok lawmaker Androulakis leaves party. To sit as independent
• French Budget Minister:  France maintains 0.8% growth target for 2013
• French FinMin:  ECB is doing what is needed to protect euro. Lauds Draghi’s commitment to protect euro
• China PBOC governor Zhou: Economy showing signs of improvement
• Swiss unadj jobless rate at 2.9% in October, as expected. Seasonally adjusted 3.0%, also as expected
• German September s.a trade surplus 17.0 bln, slightly above Reuter’s median forecast of 16.8 bln
• Bank of Indonesia leaves reference rate unchanged at 5.75%

Precious little net change in major spots and crosses when all said and done as market awaits BOE,  ECB rate decisions and Draghi press conference.

EUR/USD down marginally at 1.2735 from early 1.275o.  Early reports had sell orders clustered up at 1.2780/00 but they were never seriously threatened.  We did have a cumbersome rally attempt early, but it was stopped in its’ tracks by the Market News sourced story (see above). Horrible  Italian bank bad loan data also weighed.  The sell-off got as far as 1.2719 before steadying.

USD/JPY unchanged at 79.85 in comatose trade.  EUR/JPY marginally lower at 101.70 from early 101.85 having been as low as 101.60.  US investment bank seen selling the cross this morning.

Cable touch lower at 1.5950 from early 1.5975.

Barclays Capital recommends long positions in India 10-year bonds with a yield target of 7.75 per cent before end-December and 7.50 per cent by end-March.

 * The 10-year bond yield was last at 8.15 per cent.

* RBI may buy 1.2 trillion rupees of bonds in the second half of fiscal 2012/13, or 60 per cent of the planned issuance, to offset incremental liquidity tightness, BarCap estimates.

* Banks likely to maintain excess SLR holding given continued slow credit growth and rising bad loans, they add.

* Investors looking to buy debt and looking to extend duration can look at 8.83 per cent 2041 and 8.97 per cent 2030 bonds as both offer high coupons, says the note.

* For investors looking to maintain duration close to 10-year and don’t mind illiquid bonds, bank suggests the 9.15 per cent 2024s.

Spain’s borrowing costs fell sharply on Monday as investors digested a call from Madrid for the European Central Bank to unleash a programme of unlimited bond buying.

Luis de Guindos, finance minister, told Spain’s state-owned news agency that ECB bond buying in the secondary market should not be limited in the size or length of the programme as Madrid weighs up making a request for a full rescue to reduce its borrowing costs.

Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister who returned to work on Monday after a summer break, has said his government will consider making a request only after the central bank makes clear what conditions would be attached to a bond buying programme. Mario Draghi, ECB president, said earlier this month that the central bank would intervene only if recipient countries agreed to new conditions.

Mr de Guindos said that the terms would be discussed at a meeting of the eurogroup in the second week of September and that he did not believe any new conditions would differ significantly from Spain’s existing budget plans. >> Read More

While the EUR was soaring, and Spanish bond yield were (very briefly) plunging in the past 48 hours, the reality behind the scenes was very different than what was blasted publicly in the headlines. Namely, Spain was on the verge of requesting a full blown sovereign bailout, one which would see it become the next country after Greece, Ireland and Portugal to fall under the Troika’s control. From Reuters: “Spain has for the first time conceded it might need a full EU/IMF bailout worth 300 billion euros ($366 billion) if its borrowing costs remain unsustainably high, a euro zone official said. Economy Minister Luis de Guindos brought up the issue with German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble in a meeting in Berlin last Tuesday as Spain’s borrowing costs soared past 7.6 percent, the source said. If needed, the money would come on top of the 100 billion euros already agreed to prop up Spain’s banking sector,stretching the euro zone’s resources to breaking point, and Schaeuble told de Guindos he was unwilling to consider a rescue before the currency bloc’s ESM bailout fund comes on line later this year.” So why the sudden attempt to talk up European risk in the last two days? Simple - Germany did not agree to fund Spain’s bailout. Which meant it was suddenly up to Europe’s apparatchiks to jawbone markets into cooperation. “De Guindos was talking about 300 billion euros for a full program, but Germany was not comfortable with the idea of a bailout now,” the official told Reuters.”

What this means is that, as we suggested yesterday, Draghi really has nothing up his sleeve, and the promises of the last two days from Nowotny and less than Super Mario are very ad hoc and even more hollow, and that the vigilantes are about to come back with a vengeance as Spain has effectively admitted it is broke. So once the euphoria from the latest risk on episode fades, watch out. >> Read More

If this is the reaction to a New Democracy victory goodness knows what would have happened if the ‘bad guys’ had gotten in.

That’s Spain’s 10 year bond yield at 7.1 per cent according to Bloomberg’s composite data.

Many political commentators here (in Athens),and much of the wisdom in taxis and coffee bars, says we get an ND-ledcoalition tonight, which collapses six months later, and is replaced by a strengthened Syriza, which leads to the final showdown.

Bank of Spain says Spanish bank’s bad loans rise to 8.72% in April from 8.37% in March 

UPDATE:  Bank’s bad loans highest since April 1994