Posts Tagged: catalyst

 

None of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a rate cut

The statement US economy has gradually strengthened but the growth in the industrial sector has slowed. They cite Fed action as a catalyst.

  • It’s the first cut since March
  • Inflation risks have diminished
  • Inflation expectations for 2013 have decreased
  • 2013 growth to be considerably below earlier forecasts

A theme we have been highlighting for the past few months is weakness in emerging markets. Signs like this don’t get any clearer.

 

The world markets have been rattled by last night’s disappointing China Flash PMI number, which unexpectedly fell to 49.6 in May from 50.4 in April.slow

 This is the first sub-50 reading in seven months.  Any reading below 50 signals contraction.

This only confirms fears that China, the world’s second largest economy, is decelerating.

“The reading pretty much dashed hopes of a Q2 growth recovery,” wrote Societe Generale’s Wei Yao in a note titled “Simply No Recovery.” >> Read More

Money solves all of your problems.

10 May 2013 - 15:55 pm
 

It is often said, trading introduces you to yourself. I was in my second year of trading when I heard that phrase.  She would go on to ultimately teach me much about life and myself.  The benefit of being in my early 20′s and teaching people in their 40′s and 50′s.  I helped them with trading, they helped me grow up.

What that phrase means is that who ever you are that day will show up in your trading.  This of course comes in varying degrees.

In many professions your emotional state may not effect your earnings or employment.  In trading, a “bad” day can  create a cascading effect. You lost when you should have made money.  You created a bad habit.  Losing doesn’t trigger the right response, etc.

A trader views the market through themselves.  Now, most of the time it is little things that can be easily passed over.  Human beings are always going to have to deal with things they rather would not have to.  Every person has a bad day. >> Read More

 

NF-ICONIn many professions your emotional state may not effect your earnings or employment.  In trading, a “bad” day can  create a cascading effect. You lost when you should have made money.  You created a bad habit.  Losing doesn’t trigger the right response, etc.

A trader views the market through themselves.  Now, most of the time it is little things that can be easily passed over.  Human beings are always going to have to deal with things they rather would not have to.  Every person has a bad day.

Money solves all of your problems, till it doesn’t.  The difficult part about trading is the problems start and the money (win or loss) CAN come at different times.  Think about this concept another way, a headline comes out and the market reacts to it (or it is reasonable to think it is a catalyst).  Well it turns out the headline is old and everyone already knew about it.  The story/money and what it bears can often come at the “wrong” or different times.  You are rewarded or punished just not always easy to connect the actions in real time.

Money does not necessarily mean your actions are correct.  Yes over time it evens out but some run out of money, patience, emotional currency before it corrects.  They weren’t honest about who they were that day.  It is prudent to always look a gift horse in the mouth.

TUELast Close :5568

Yesterday ,We had written :Support @ 5506 level…..It kissed  5503 level and Taken U-turn !

Our Hurdle was at 5577 level….Went to kiss 5601 & crashed.

Now ,SGX Nifty @ 5514 ,Down 39 points.

today..

-Support at 5547 level.Break will take to 5529————5523 level !!

If Breaks 5523 level too ,Watch PANIC upto 5505-5499 level.

alert_graphic

Thirsty Traders ,Just watch these Two levels :

5610 & 5500 level.

5610+142 = 5752 level……………………Not ruled out.

5500-142 =5358 level ……………in PANIC ??

Our BOX Chart Indicates :5626 & 5643 are Hurdles………….Crossover and close will create unexpected Firework.

eyes only

Three Possibilities : 

1)Below 5695 level ,Our Target intact :5440——————–5355 level very soon !!

2)Already Broken Head & Shoulder Neckline @ 5690-5700 level.

-Height of Head : 400 points 

-5700 -400 :5300 level.

3)Qtly Chart indicates ,Below 5800 level it will favour Bears only.Target :5480-5425 & there after Nonstop slide upto 5284-5231 is possible.

Qtly Chart levels valid till June ’2013

Now ,Just u have to remember these three points only.Nothing else.

Forget 200 DMA ,Forget Economy ,Forget Fundamentals ,Forget policies -Just watch FIIs activities +USD Movement !!

-Again Result season to start ,Again Insider Trading +Result leak …..Golmaal to start soon.

-More Details to our Subscribers-

Updated at 7:53/16th April/Baroda/India

Money solves all of your problems.

21 March 2013 - 20:27 pm
 

What that phrase means is that who ever you are that day will show up in your trading.  This of course comes in varying degrees.

In many professions your emotional state may not effect your earnings or employment.  In trading, a “bad” day can  create a cascading effect. You lost when you should have made money.  You created a bad habit.  Losing doesn’t trigger the right response, etc.

A trader views the market through themselves.  Now, most of the time it is little things that can be easily passed over.  Human beings are always going to have to deal with things they rather would not have to.  Every person has a bad day.

Money solves all of your problems, till it doesn’t.  The difficult part about trading is the problems start and the money (win or loss) CAN come at different times.  Think about this concept another way, a headline comes out and the market reacts to it (or it is reasonable to think it is a catalyst).  Well it turns out the headline is old and everyone already knew about it.  The story/money and what it bears can often come at the “wrong” or different times.  You are rewarded or punished just not always easy to connect the actions in real time.

Money does not necessarily mean your actions are correct.  Yes over time it evens out but some run out of money, patience, emotional currency before it corrects.  They weren’t honest about who they were that day.  It is prudent to always look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

One of the big FX themes in recent months has been the sharp depreciation of the Yen, on expectations that the Abe administration would pursue pro-growth policies and try to put an end to two decades of deflation.

However, given the Monday’s price action following the inconclusive election outcome in Italy, the key questions to assess the strength of this short yen trade are how big this short now and who holds it?

To answer these question, Goldman Sachs used the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report from the CFTC, along with a companion report that identifies the line of business of participants in the CoT: (i) hedge funds; (ii) asset managers; (iii) dealers; and (iv) another (residual) category:

Here are the main findings as outlined by GS:

1. The peak in speculative short positioning came just around Japan’s general election (December 16). Since then, net speculative shorts have fallen to -$8.8bn in the February 19 CoT report, to around 60% of its peak in mid-December.

2. Hedge funds in the TFF started building Yen shorts from mid-October. Net short positions peaked in the December 18 report at -$13.0bn, two days after the election. Since then, Yen short positioning has fallen to -$10.4bn in the most recent report, i.e., 80% of the mid-December peak. In short, hedge fund net short Yen positioning peaked in mid-December and is now down to 80% of its level at that time. >> Read More

Mark Cuban On Story Stocks

23 February 2013 - 15:23 pm
 

Don’t Miss to Read :

Different catalysts matter for the different time frames. In short-term perspective, price momentum is the most powerful catalyst. Short-term could sometimes be a couple years in the market. Here are a few wise words, written in 2004, by someone who has been on both sides of the table – as a shareholder and company owner:

For years, a company’s price can have less to do with a company’s real prospects than with the excitement it and its supporters are able to generate among investors. That lesson was reinforced as I saw the Gandalf experience repeated with many different stocks over the next 10 years. Brokers and bankers market and sell stocks. Unless demand can be manufactured, the
stock will decline.

If the value of a stock is what people will pay for it, then Broadcast.com was fairly valued. We were able to work with Morgan Stanley to create volume around the stock. Volume creates demand. Stocks don’t go up because companies do well or do poorly. Stocks go up and down depending on supply and demand. If a stock is marketed well enough to create more demand from buyers than there are sellers, the stock will go up. What about fundamentals? Fundamentals is a word invented by sellers to find buyers. >> Read More

 

Throughout the month of January, as stocks have marched higher with no significant downward moves, the calls for a correction have been getting louder.

 We’ve finally arrived at the point where Wall Street strategists are declaring an expected pullback in the stock market this month as a “consensus” view.

BofA Merrill Lynch technical analyst Mary Ann Bartels wrote in a note to clients that because everyone is now calling for a correction, it may in fact be delayed.

JPMorgan’s top equity strategist, Tom Lee, is considering the same thing – but he takes the thought experiment one step further today. >> Read More

 
  • UK FTSE -0.3%
  • German DAX -0.5%
  • French CAC -0.6%
  • Spain IBEX -1.5%
  • Italy FTSE MIB -3.4%

The catalyst for the decline in Italy was oil services group Saipem, which is down more than 30% on a profit warning and an investigation into improper share sales ahead of the warning.

On the MIB chart, it’s a large hiccup but still a hiccup after more than a month of gains.

ITALY-CRASH

10 Essential Trading Words

13 December 2012 - 15:33 pm
 

1. Simplicity – have a simple, well defined way to generate trading ideas. Have a simple approach towards the market. You can’t simply take everything into account when you try to make an educated decision. Filter the noise and focus on several key market components. For me, they are relative strength and earnings’ growth.

2. Common sense – create a trading system that is designed on the basis of proven trading anomaly. For example, trend following in different time frames.

3. Flexibility – be open to opportunities in both directions of the market. Be ready to get long and short.

4. Selectivity – chose only trades with the best risk/reward ratio; stocks with the best set ups; it doesn’t make sense to risk a dollar to make a dollar.

5. Don’t overtrade – two or three well planned trades in a week (month) might be more than enough to achieve your income goals. Patiently wait fot the right set up to form and offers good risk/reward ratio.

6. Exit strategy – Always, absolutelly always have an exit strategy before you initiate a trade. Know at which point the market is telling you that you are wrong and do not hesitate to cut your losses short immediatelly. Don’t be afraid or ashamed to take a trading loss. Everyone has them. Just make sure that you keep their size to a minimum. >> Read More

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.