Posts Tagged: cause and effect

The Same Winning Principles

21 May 2013 - 20:17 pm
 

In life, as in trading, the right mindset is crucial for success. You must be confident in your decisions because they are based on cause and effect, not on emotions or opinion. Negative people who are unsure of themselves are not successful in any field. You need faith in yourself and your methods to be able to persevere and not give up before reaching success.

• You can risk too much and lose it all in your business, life, marriage, friendships or family. You have to measure the potential cost of every action. One affair can cost you your marriage, just like one big trade with too much risk can cost you all your capital.

• In business there are certain methods which bring in customers and turn a profit, and others which cause a business to turn away customers and lose money. Trading is similar: methods which turn a consistent and long-term profit are essential for success.

• Having unrealistic expectations in a marriage, job, or business will lead to unhappiness and failure just like it will in trading. You have to set realistic expectations so
you do not get discouraged easily and quit in any of these areas. You have to be satisfied that the results are worth your effort over the long term. You need to understand what to expect before you begin a marriage, a job, a business, or trading. >> Read More

 

TREND-210

 

In life, as in trading, the right mindset is crucial for success. You must be confident in your decisions because they are based on cause and effect, not on emotions or opinion. Negative people who are unsure of themselves are not successful in any field. You need faith in yourself and your methods to be able to persevere and not give up before reaching success.

ENJOYEDBLAST

Yesterday Enjoyed Blast in Adani Ent ,Adani Power ??Yes …We love Dish TV !!

Yes ,BATA……….too Blasted and kissed our Target 

As Expected :Colgate crashed vertically and still looking weak.Ranbaxy it was Bloodbath and still looking weak !!

GSPL-HOT

Yes ,Just need Patience………………Nothing else.

Keep A Stop of 61—60……………………………..Buy this stock and Forget.

Risk Rs.2 only.

uturn

Once it will cross 63 level with volumes………..We see BLAST BLAST upto  67-68 level very soon.

(Is it possible before Month end it will cross 72 level ??? )

Bharti-Sell

Below 313 level it will favour Bears only.

We see PANIC upto 303—————–299 level very soon (Sell on Rise )

DABUR-ASR

Below 157 level…………………………………No Buying @ all.Once Breaks 155 with volumes and trades below 

Target :152—–150 level in hrs only.On Rise ,Sell Sell !!

DIVISPANIC

Once Breaks 1080 with volumes………….not crosses 1094 will take to 1037——-1023 level.

(101% Manipulative Stock ,On Rise sell sell )

-Many Stocks are Looking Tired and Great Unwinding not ruled out.

Will Update more to our Subscribers.Updated at 9:02/21st May/Baroda

Trading Principles

08 October 2012 - 15:50 pm
 

• In life, as in trading, the right mindset is crucial for success. You must be confident in your decisions because they are based on cause and effect, not on emotions or opinion. Negative people who are unsure of themselves are not successful in any field. You need faith in yourself and your methods to be able to persevere and not give up before reaching success.

• You can risk too much and lose it all in your business, life, marriage, friendships or family. You have to measure the potential cost of every action. One affair can cost you your marriage, just like one big trade with too much risk can cost you all your capital.

• In business there are certain methods which bring in customers and turn a profit, and others which cause a business to turn away customers and lose money. Trading is similar: methods which turn a consistent and long-term profit are essential for success.

• Having unrealistic expectations in a marriage, job, or business will lead to unhappiness and failure just like it will in trading. You have to set realistic expectations so
you do not get discouraged easily and quit in any of these areas. You have to be satisfied that the results are worth your effort over the long term. You need to understand what to expect before you begin a marriage, a job, a business, or trading.

• Those who succeed in all areas of life are the ones who can manage stress the best. The best way to manage stress is to increase what you can handle step by step so that you grow into new circumstances. Another way to manage stress is to avoid actions which get you into situations you are uncomfortable with.

 

In life, as in trading, the right mindset is crucial for success. You must be confident in your decisions because they are based on cause and effect, not on emotions or opinion. Negative people who are unsure of themselves are not successful in any field. You need faith in yourself and your methods to be able to persevere and not give up before reaching success.

 • You can risk too much and lose it all in your business, life, marriage, friendships or family. You have to measure the potential cost of every action. One affair can cost you your marriage, just like one big trade with too much risk can cost you all your capital.

• In business there are certain methods which bring in customers and turn a profit, and others which cause a business to turn away customers and lose money. Trading is similar: methods which turn a consistent and long-term profit are essential for success.

Last Close :5776.55

For Qtly Forecast ,Just Click This Link :

http://www.anirudhsethireport.com/nifty-future-qtly-chart-indicates-5748-is-last-hurdle/

Already Closed above 5747 for 3 Consecutive Days +Weekly close ,Now We see Very soon it will zoom to kiss 5917-5976 ,6011

On Friday ,We had written it will face Hurdle at 5854-5871 level.It kissed 5855.60 & Crashed…Inrtraday upto 5732 & closed at 5776 level.

Today’s Hurdle at 5794————-5802 level.Crossover with volumes above 5802 and stays above for 15-20 minutes will take to 5825-5833 level.

-There after More Firework upto 5856-5864 level !!

Support @ 5757-5737 level.

(7DEMA @ 5745 )

-Major Support @ 5737………..Break with volumes and remain below for 15-20 minutes if happens…Watch bloodbath upto 5697-5684 in hrs only.

101% More Details ,Intraday levels to our Subscribers.

Updated at 6:15/08th Oct/Baroda/India

 

Remember the days when Chinese banks used to routinely drain dollars from Chinese corporates? The days when the Chinese corporate sector was a net dollar seller?

Those days, it seems, may have very abruptly come to a halt.

Consider the following chart from Standard Chartered on Tuesday. It makes quite an impact (specifically the light blue component):

At best, the chart shows that China’s dollar position has become balanced over the last half year. That the dollars China takes in through exports cover the country’s dollar import costs, but that’s all. There are no surplus dollars leftover for reinvestment. >> Read More

The 3 Laws that Govern Stock Prices

08 February 2012 - 11:27 am
 

Contrary to popular belief by the majority of the general population and even investors and traders stocks are not tied to their fundamental values or even the companies that sold the shares to raise capital. Stock prices are tied to simply what the current buyer and seller in the market is willing to exchange ownership for. That is what determines price, nothing else. So the big question is what are the rules that govern the change in a stocks price?

The laws of economics governs price movement in the market. There are three laws articulated by legendary trader and market pioneer Richard Wyckoff that captures what causes current price reality and what changes it.

The Law of Supply and Demand

The excess of demand (buyers) over supply (sellers) causes a stock’s price to go up. The excess of supply over demand causes a stock’s price to go down.

The price is determined by the law of supply and demand.

The price moves up and down to balance the supply and demand to the equilibrium.

“The stock is only worth the other people are willing to pay for it”— >> Read More

 

On Risk:
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health – if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Always play for meaningful stakes – if an amount is so small that its loss won’t make any significant difference, then it isn’t likely to bring any significant gains either.
- Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
- Always take your profit too soon.
- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
- When the ship starts sinking, don’t pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
- Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
- Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly. >> Read More

 

“Psychology of Intelligence Analysis” by Richards J Heuer, Jr., published by the CIA’s Center for the Study of Intelligence, 1999.

woman-reading
 

Available as a pdf download from this webpage
 

Ok, so it’s a CIA book written for Intelligence Analysts, not a trading book written for traders. However, the information available in this book is superb. Well written and easy to follow. This is an excellent source of information on how we think, and the cognitive biases which undermine our ability to process information and conduct market analysis.
 

VERY APPLICABLE TO TRADING. HIGHLY RECOMMENDED.
 

Here’s what’s it covers:

 

Part 1 – Our Mental Machinery

  • Chapter 1: Thinking About Thinking

  • Chapter 2: Perception: Why Can’t We See What Is There to Be Seen?

  • Chapter 3: Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?

Part 2 – Tools for Thinking

  • Chapter 4: Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information

  • Chapter 5: Do You Really Need More Information?

  • Chapter 6: Keeping an Open Mind

  • Chapter 7: Structuring Analytical Problems

  • Chapter 8: Analysis of Competing Hypothesis

Part 3 – Cognitive Biases

  • Chapter 9 – What Are Cognitive Biases?

  • Chapter 10 – Biases in Evaluation of Evidence

  • Chapter 11 – Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect

  • Chapter 12 – Biases in Estimating Probabilities

  • Chapter 13 – Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting

Part 4 – Conclusions

  • Chapter 14 – Improving Intelligence Analysis

 

Available as a pdf download from this webpage

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.