Posts Tagged: china


China Q1 GDP: 7.4% y/y (vs. expected +7.3%) 

  • Slowest rate since the third quarter of 2012
  • Second straight quarterly slowdown
  • But a beat of expectations
  • +1.4% from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis
  • Annualized q/q growth has slowed to 5.7% (yuck)
  • China revises Q4 q/q growth rate to 1.7% from 1.8%
  • Revises Q3 to 2.3% from 2.2%

From the Chinese statistics bureau, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, comments:

  • Says the economy is in a reasonable range, but under pressure
  • Q1 GDP growth rate within target zone of about 7.5%
  • Q1 employment, income data showed that growth is ‘not bad’
  • Internal survey shows stable employment

China March Industrial Production: 8.8% y/y (expected +9.0%)


MERA BHARAT MAHAN-India ranks 102nd among the 132 countries on the Social Progress Index, a measure of human wellbeing that goes beyond traditional economic measures such as GDP or per capita income.

Of the BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — only India ranked lower than the 100th position on the list of the Social Progress Index 2014 compiled by US-based non-profit group Social Progress Imperative.

China was next lowest of the five, in the 90th position, and Brazil was the highest, at 46th.

Using measures of access to basic human needs such as food and shelter and of equality of opportunity such as education and personal freedom, the index aims to measure quality of life throughout the globe.

Last year the first Social Progress Index ranked 50 countries. This year, its ranking includes 132 countries around the world. >> Read More


China’s State Administration for Foreign Exchange with their latest bulletin

  • warns on impact of Fed tapering but believes emerging markets will be able to cope
  • pace of Fed QE exit has great uncertainty
  • will promote yuan capital account convertibility
  • China c/a surplus to GDP ratio to stay in reasonable zone
  • China 2013 capital account surplus $326.2 bln
  • China 2013 current account surplus $182.8 bln
  • Global liquidity won’t see massive fall in short-term

Two weeks ago, MSCI indicated that it was considering including China’s A-shares (yuan-denominated mainland shares)  into its emerging market equity index.  It plans on consulting with 2000-3000 fund managers, with a decision expected in June.  If it does decide to include China, it most likely won’t be until mid-2015.   

The early results are thought to be mixed.  While some fund managers are sympathetic, others have reportedly expressed concern about the investment quotas,  capital gains tax and capital controls. 
China’s stock market capitalization is about $3.3 trillion and is the fifth largest in the world.  MSCI estimates that some $12 bln could flow into China stocks if it were to be included in its indices, with $8 bln going into the MSCI Emerging Market equity index.  Private sector estimates tend to be considerably smaller.    Some reports single out the large banks, like China Merchant Bank and the Agricultural Bank of China as likely beneficiaries. 
The Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) facility through which foreign investors are giving a quota of investments that they can make has been steadily increased.   A little more than $52 bln of foreign investment from a little more than 230 investors has been approved. >> Read More

Apparently China did not get the memo that the Fed’s apologists are furiously scrambling to packpedal on Yellen’s “6 month” guidance in virtually all media outlets. The is the only way to explain why Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao said overnight that “the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin boosting interest rates within six months after exiting “unconventional” monetary policy, and that will have a “significant impact” on the U.S. and world economy, as Market News International reported earlier. Zhu told China Development Forum this weekend “we believe a the Fed meeting this October, the exit of their quantiative easing will complete.” In other words while the spin for public and algo consumption is that the Fed will continue placating those long the stock market until everyone’s price target on the S&P 500 is hit and everyone can comfortably sell into an ever-present bid, China is already looking for the exits.

Understandably, Zhu Guangyao also indicated that China is uneasy about the impact of such a move. He should speak to the army of vacuum tubes which has no idea how to exist in a world in which the Fed isn’t injecting at least a few billions in reserves every month. >> Read More


A little over a month ago, we reported that following a year of record-shattering imports, China finally surpassed India as the world’s largest importer of physical gold. This was hardly a surprise to anyone who has been following our coverage of the ravenous demand for gold out of China, starting in September 2011, and tracing it all the way to the present.

China’s apetite for physical gold, which is further shown below focusing just on 2012 and 2013, has been estimated by Goldman to amount to over $70 billion in bilateral trade between just Hong Kong and China alone.

Yet while China’s gold demand is acutely familiar one question that few have answered is just what is China doing with all this physical gold, aside from filling massive brand new gold vaults of course. And a far more important question: how does China’s relentless buying of physical not send the price of gold into the stratosphere.

We will explain why below. >> Read More


China’s Xi Jinping embarks on his first European tour as president Saturday, with the continent gripped by a diplomatic frenzy over Beijing ally Moscow’s absorption of Crimea from Ukraine.

The four-country trip comes shortly after China lodged a rare abstention on a Western-backed UN Security Council resolution condemning the weekend’s Crimea referendum, rather than vetoing it along with Russia.

While analysts say Xi is unlikely to speak out on Ukraine, they believe that China cannot remain a diplomatic bystander forever.

Xi has visited Russia, Africa, the United States, Latin America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and Central Asia since becoming president a year ago. >> Read More

China – Yuan Crosses 6.20 level

19 March 2014 - 11:11 am



Above is Weekly Chart of USDCNY

Heading Towards : 6.2181———————6.2404 level ?

More Details to our Subscribers.

Updated at 11:10/19th March/Baroda/India


China has hiked its defence budget by $131bn, in the latest double digit spending increase.

National defence spending will grow 12.2 per cent to Rmb 808.23bn ($131bn) this year, according to a work report that Premier Li Keqiang will deliver to the annual meeting of the country’s largely ceremonial legislature later Wednesday.

This is a slightly larger budget increase than in 2013, when China’s defence spending rose 10.7 per cent.


China minted 41 new billionaires over the past year, driven largely by growth in the technology industry, according to a new rich list.

The mainland now boasts a total of 358 U.S. dollar billionaires who have amassed a total worth of $963 billion, the report compiled by the country’s Hurun research institute said.

That puts China second only to the U.S., which spawned 72 new billionaires, pushing its total to 481, based on a “snapshot” of data on January 17.

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.