Malaysia’s central bank said it will allow investors to fully hedge their currency exposure.
Egypt declared a 3-month state of emergency after two deadly church attacks.
South Africa’s parliamentary no confidence vote has been delayed
Argentina central bank surprised markets with a 150 bp hike to 26.25%.
Brazil central bank accelerated the easing cycle with a 100 bp cut in the Selic rate.
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, South Africa (+3.1%), Turkey (+2.5%), and the Philippines (+0.9%) have outperformed this week, while Russia (-3.9%), Peru (-3.4%), and Brazil (-2.6%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM fell -0.3% this week while MSCI DM fell -0.7%.
In the EM local currency bond space, South Africa (10-year yield -18 bp), Poland (-8 bp), and Indonesia (-8 bp) have outperformed this week, while Brazil (10-year yield +11 bp), Peru (+9 bp), and Colombia (+9 bp) have underperformed. To put this in better context, the 10-year UST yield fell 15 bp to 2.24%.
In the EM FX space, ZAR (+2.5% vs. USD), RUB (+1.9% vs. USD), and ARS (+1.2% vs. USD) have outperformed this week, while HUF (-0.9% vs. EUR), KRW (-0.5% vs. USD), and PLN (-0.5% vs. EUR) have underperformed.
The U.S. Treasury Department has decided not to label China a currency manipulator in a report published Friday on the foreign exchange policies of America’s key trading partners, backing away from President Donald Trump’s campaign promise to do so.
The move was apparently taken out of consideration for China, which the U.S. hopes will help rein in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
This was the Trump administration’s first release of the twice-yearly report, which evaluates the foreign exchange policies of major U.S. trading partners.
Although the report did not signal a major shift in Washington’s own currency policy, it is likely Trump will try to use the issue as a bargaining chip in negotiations with other countries. The U.S. may try to limit the dollar’s rise against the yen in its first economic dialogue with Japan, scheduled for Tuesday. Japan’s large trade surplus will probably be high on the agenda.
Trump’s Treasury Department used the same standards for determining currency manipulation as those of the previous administration under President Barack Obama. The report kept China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany and Switzerland on a watch list as they met some of the criteria.
When it comes to Nigeria’s currency, mind the gap, again: the spread between the official and parallel market rates for the naira is widening once more.
During a more than two-week run, the naira strengthened to a six-month high of 390 per dollar on the black market – close to one of the multiple official exchange rates, but still far off the interbank rate of around 305 to the dollar.
However, the naira is weakening once more on the black market, slipping below 400 to the dollar, to 405 to the dollar on Monday, according to traders.
Chronic dollar shortages in Nigeria began after oil prices crashed in 2014, worsened as the central bank restricted supplies of hard currency, and are unlikely to end any time soon.
In the absence of adequate supplies of dollars in the official market, businesses and individuals have been forced to buy hard currency on the black market, stoking demand there and eventually weakening the naira to a record low of 520 in February. Analysts said the gap between the official rate of just over 300 to the dollar and the black market one indicated the scale of unmet demand for hard currency in Africa’s most populous nation.
Hedge funds have cut their short position in 10-year Treasury futures by nearly two-thirds from a one-year high set at the start of March, unwinding a popular trade as US sovereign debt has rallied.
Leveraged funds, a proxy for hedge funds, reduced their net short in 10-year Treasury futures by nearly 49,000 contracts in the week to April 4, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. The net short totaled 136,322 contracts, down from 365,650 contracts on March 7.
Traditional asset managers, who have taken the opposite side of the trade, have also reduced their net long to 226,655 contracts, the lowest level since February.
The divide has represented in part a difference of opinion on the likely path of interest rates in the US. It widened markedly after the Federal Reserve signalled last year that it would tighten policy by at least three quarter-point rate rises in 2017.
The central bank’s perceived hawkishness, alongside a sell-off in Treasuries after the US election, sent yields on the 10-year Treasury to a high of 2.62 per cent in December. Yields on the note have since slid, as the so-called Trump trade fades.
– New pound coin ‘most secure coin in world’ ? – New British £1 coins much harder to counterfeit – Pound coin uses “secret” cutting edge technology – Coins uses ‘iSIS’ technology which may involve RFID tags – Central banks, governments may be able to track coins – Libertarians and privacy advocates will have concerns – “Secure coin” yes but real risk is that savings not secure due to currency debasement – Now new risk to bank deposits as all digital wealth exposed to hacking and cyber fraud – Sound as a pound? Safer to stick with true “coin of the realm” – Gold and silver Sovereigns and Britannias (VAT and CGT free) are only truly secure coins
The major US indices are ending the day with solid gains.
The S&P rose by +0.73%
The Nasdaq index increased by +0.60% and the
Dow industrial average rose by +0.73%.
The S&P index moved below the 50 day MA yesterday but closed back above the MA line. That was the first break since the November election. Today, the low held above the MA line and also moved above the broken trend line. The selling seems to be over for now.
In other markets, a snap shot of the major currencies vs each other shows that the AUD is ending the day as the strongest. It rose against all the major currency pairs. The GBP was the weakest. The GBP tumbled on the day before the triggering of Article 50 tomorrow by PM May.
The USD recovered quite nicely and had strong gains against most currencies with the exception of the AUD (the USD was little changed ag. the CAD).
A quiet one … I shoulda let them write the Wrap Meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of 20 Traders are monitoring how China and Japan will react to pressure from Mr. Mnuchin to strengthen their currencies against the U.S. dollar, said Khoon Goh, head of research for Asia at ANZ. “There is a lot of interest if there will be any material changes out of the G-20,” he said. US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin is expected to urge China, Japan, Germany and other G-20 members to keep their promise to not use their exchange rates for competitive gains Link to the Journal, may be gated, but you get the gist.
The Parliamentary standing committee on finance headed by Dr M. Veerappa Moily has sought an explanation from CSO over its GDP estimate for 2016-17 which it said is considered by experts “over-estimation” in view of demonetisation.
Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its advance estimate has pegged GDP growth for 2016-17 at 7.1 per cent and it kept unchanged while announcing Q3 growth figures.
Last month CSO had said that despite demonetisation, India’s GDP grew by 7 per cent between October to December 2016 (Q3 2016-17) to retain the title of the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
“The committee would also like to be apprised about the rationale/process/assumptions made and adopted by the CSO in their recent GDP advance estimates for 2016-17, which has been considered by independent experts as a possible over-estimation, particularly in the backdrop of demonetisation,” said the committee in its report submitted in the Parliament.