Posts Tagged: debt crisis

 

Pier Carlo Padoan, the OECD’s chief economist, said he expected growth in the 17-nation bloc to be negative this year, despite several countries showing signs of recovery.

Mr Padoan said the single currency area, which emerged from its longest recession in more than 40 years in the second quarter, remained “a considerable source of risk” to the global recovery, though he added that the systemic risk from the eurozone’s debt crisis had subsided.

He added that while countries should continue to implement austerity policies, automatic stabilisers such as unemployment benefits should be allowed to kick-in if economies stalled. Mr Padoan also urged policymakers to tackle high jobless rates.

“There is no doubt that policy priority number one in the euro area is fighting unemployment. Let’s not fool ourselves and expect unemployment to come down in a stable fashion,” he said. >> Read More

 
Angela Merkel’s triumph in winning a third term with such an improbably high margin sets her and Germany apart in Europe.

More than three years into the European Union’s worst ever nightmare, Merkel, uniquely in the eurozone, has been rewarded for her handling of the currency and sovereign debt crisis. Everywhere else voters have punished governments.

Her victory demonstrates the gulf between Germany and the rest of the EU and the eurozone, although it is not clear what impact her third term will have on the direction of the crisis.

Merkel’s second term coincided exactly with the euro crisis. As she was forming her coalition with the Free Democrats in October 2009, Greece went belly-up, prompting deep doubts about the common currency and the survival of the EU

She has been resented and criticized across Europe for her crisis management and responses. Berlin became alarmed at the resurrection of the “ugly German” stereotype in neighbouring countries. But German voters have voiced their approval.

As Bill Clinton famously remarked, “it’s the economy stupid”. And Germans have given Merkel a third term because, despite big problems forecast for the future, German living standards, jobs and prosperity have remained stable while mayhem has struck across large parts of the eurozone. >> Read More

 

The Swiss National Bank has just released its latest monetary policy assessment and, as expected, its affirmed the cap on the Swiss franc at SFr1.20 per euro.

The SNB notes that the Swiss franc is “still high” in its statement:

The SNB stands ready to enforce the minimum exchange rate, if necessary, by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities, and to take further measures, as required.

Important background – the Swiss government earlier on Thursday hiked its 2013 growth forecast from 1.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent, and its 2014 forecast from 2.1 per cent to 2.3 per cent, noting that the recovery appears to be bedding down in Europe.

Here’s an excerpt from the upbeat statement released from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern: >> Read More

 

At last, the European Parliament has approved the European Central Bank’s role as the eurozone’s single banking supervisor – albeit only from October 2014. But as banks in southern Europe again show signs of weakness, far faster progress towards banking union is essential.

In June last year, banking union was urgently required to restore calm to the eurozone’s financial sector. But as the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis eased, the plan – including the Single Supervisory Mechanism project – lost momentum.

But with ECB accountability to Strasbourg now sorted, today’s agreement on a single supervisor is a proper step towards eurozone banking union. True, such a union remains bedevilled by such significant (but linked) matters as the depth of members’ pockets (hello Germany) and the extent to which members’ banks have yet to come clean about their asset quality (hello Spain). >> Read More

 

Chris Wood’s view on India is sharply at odds with the current market cheer that’s been engendered by the dramatic recovery in the rupee, the surge in stocks and an increasingly sunny outlook. CLSA’s chief equity strategist is holding out against getting swayed by a change of sentiment that’s just about a week old after all.

Still, some of his comments in an interview with ET seemed counter-intuitive. For instance, he declared that “India in the Asian markets remains most at risk of a sovereign debt crisis”, but argued against the contention as well. “This is despite the fact that India does not have a debt market reliant on foreign capital, given the lack of foreign ownership of rupee debt. The foreign ownership of Indian government securities was only 1.61 per cent at the end of March, though it is up from 0.88 per cent at the end of March 2012. In this sense, India is not directly correlated into emerging market debt dynamics.”

The best hope for the Indian stock markets would be a worsening of the country’s economic crisis, he argued. Why? Because that will improve the chances of Gujarat Chief MinisterNarendra Modi emerging as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, according to Wood. As for the current woes of the Indian economy, he said they were “self-inflicted due to continuing lack of investment cycle and deprecation of the currency against the dollar”. >> Read More

US investors pile into European equities

08 September 2013 - 22:45 pm
 

US investors have pumped more money into European equities than at any time since 1977 in a big vote of confidence for the region and its ability to recover from the sovereign debt crisis.

Pension funds and other big US groups invested $65bn in European stocks in the first six months of 2013, the highest in 36 years over that time period, according to research compiled by Goldman Sachs’ European strategy team from US Treasury data.

 Early signs of economic recovery and rising business confidence have restored the faith of US investors in Europe as hopes grow that markets can rally further on a wave of stronger earnings in the second half of the year.

Eddie Perkins, chief investment officer of international equity at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said: “The economic story makes Europe a good bet. We expect European equities to keep rising as the continent recovers.” >> Read More

 

It does seem like it’s déjà vu all over again. As emerging market governments burn through their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to support local currencies in the midst of massive capital outflows, the headlines are eerily reminiscent of the 1990s or early 2000s. Say, for example, in 1991, when India had to fly its entire gold reserve pile to London as collateral for a loan. Or in 2001, when a debt crisis, capital flight and a bank run forced Argentina to freeze domestic bank accounts and default on its international debt. But is today’s news just a replay of crises past? Not in the slightest, says Robert Parker, a senior adviser to Credit Suisse and a member of the bank’s Investment Committee.

It’s not that the players are different. India is once again grabbing the lion’s share of nervous headlines today due the fast-falling rupee, its large budget and current account deficits, high inflation and relatively anemic growth. And Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and Thailand are all experiencing currency pressure that does seem shockingly familiar. But that’s where the similarities end. One big difference: most of the larger emerging market economics have made significant structural adjustments that leave them much better able to deal with today’s capital outflows than they were in previous crises. “The circumstances are very different,” Parker said. “The key question is, ‘Are we going to have, as we had in the 1990s, a range of sovereign debt defaults?’ And the answer to that is, no.” >> Read More

 

Greece’s financial troubles will not end in 2014 and it is therefore realistic to expect the debt-laden country will need additional money from the euro zone before it can return to markets, the head of euro zone finance ministers said.

 International lenders estimate that Greece will need around 10-11 billion euros ($13.1-14.4 billion) from the second half of 2014 to keep it going next year and in 2015.

But several euro zone governments are reluctant to extend any further loans because of negative public opinion, with voters tired of bailing out other countries after three years of the sovereign debt crisis.

“As far as the potential need for a third program for Greece is concerned, it’s clear that despite recent progress, Greece’s troubles will not have been completely resolved by 2014,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem told the European Parliament. >> Read More

 

Quarterly press conferences from the chairman of the Federal Reserve are simply not enough.

That’s the message from James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who has called on the US central bank to hold a press conference every time the Fed’s Open Market Committee meets to set rates.

In a speech in Louisville, Kentucky, Mr Bullard, who is a voter this year, said that the failure to hold a press conference after every meeting curbs the bank’s ability to make changes in policy.

The FOMC should make all meetings ex ante identical so that key decisions can be made at any juncture. This would allow the Committee to better align appropriate decisions with incoming macroeconomic data. >> Read More

 

Here’s an interesting situation.

 The market is acting really calm, not doing much of anything.

But everyone’s talking about the ‘September Angst,’ the confluence of big economic events that are coming up in just a few weeks.

This is from JPMorgan’s Early Look At The Market, put together by Adam Crisafulli: >> Read More

Reader Discretion & Risk Disclaimer

Our site is objectively in letter and spirit, based on pure Technical Analysis. All other content(s), viz., International News, Indian Business News, Investment Psychology, Cartoons, Caricatures, etc are all to give additional ambiance and make the reader more enlightening. As the markets are super dynamic by very nature, you are assumed to be exercising discretion and constraint as per your emotional, financial and other resources. This blog will never ever create rumors or have any intention for bad propaganda. We report rumors and hear-say but never create the same. This is for your information and assessment. For more information please read our Risk Disclaimer and Terms of Use.

Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.