Posts Tagged: decisions

Traits of a Successful Trader

13 September 2013 - 16:15 pm
 

We urge you to use this checklist for your own trading and investing preparation.  We truly feel that these traits are very important for you to understand.  These trader traits coupled with the proper psychology can make a huge positive difference in your overall trading performance.     

•  The ability to act on your decisions.

•  The ability to accept responsibility for your actions.

•  You must have emotional detachment from the markets.

•  The ability to accept risk and take losses (you’ll never be right 100% of the time). >> Read More

 

ASR-NFVery briefly, what I mean by  self-awareness is:

1) the recognition that our thinking and our emotions are intertwined and both influence our perception and judgment that leads to our decisions and actions (this view also happens to be consistent what the leading brain scientists are now saying)

2) much of our motivation – the intertwined thinking/emotion that drives our behavior – is actually subconscious, e.g. we assume we are trading the market but on other levels we are also trading our P&L and our feelings about our P&L  (and what our P&L represents to us) is just one example.

3) when we understand (self-awareness) the underlying/subconscious motivation for our behavior we are in a better position to choose an alternative.

Obviously, nothing can guarantee change or improvement (contrary to many claims made by pseudo “experts”), but at least an approach that emphasizes expansion of awareness puts the odds in your favor.And I have to play the probabilities here. Because more people tend to respond to a change process that includes an emphasis on self-awareness, I choose to use this  approach in my own trading and in my coaching….it simply has the highest probability

of actually helping.

THU1209

Last Close :5939.65

NF-1209

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future ,In Just 10 sessions from low of 5108 it had flared to kiss 5954.70 (Jump of  847 points )

TodaywhattoexpectToday’s Hurdle & Targets are :5967 ,5991 level.

Now Suppose crosses 5991 with volumes and stays above for 20 minutes will see NF kissing 6018-6024 level !!

Slopping

gap-4976Gap @ 6069.70 to be filled 

Two Gaps :5475 & 5706 ……………………………..will be filled soon (Just need Patience )

countdown-1

If Not Today …………….then 100% Rally will get Over by Tomorrow First Half & Sharp Slide will start.

Yesterday too Indicated :Rally of 100-150 points left in NF !!

3DEMA @ 5849 ,7DEMA @ 5703

REDALERTIn Next 1-3 sessions …………..Rally will get Over ,It can kiss 6000-6070 or 6100 !!

But ,Buy 5800 ,5900 Put and Buy 5400 put too ………..Just Hold for Month end.

Last Leg of Teji going on ,Biggest Trap of 2013 ??

Yes ,Trade with Eyes Open…………..Once Reversal takes place will Update More to our Subscribers !!

Updated at 7:45/12th Sept/Baroda/India

Barroso says jobless rate unacceptable

11 September 2013 - 14:06 pm
 

José Manuel Barroso has just finished delivering his final State of the Union speech before his term as president of the European Commission expires.

Some highlights from the speech:

  • Europe has fought back in the last 5 years. We realised we had to fight it together.
  • When you are in the same boat one cannot say your end of the boat is sinking
  • On economic recovery – We owe it to our 26m unemployed people, especially our young people. The current level of unemployment is socially unacceptable.
  • Europe alone cannot fight climate change, but we must lead the effort.
  • The biggest risk we have is political. Lack of stability or lack of determination. Strong and convincing decisions have an important impact.
  • The EU needs to be big on big things and smaller on small things
  • I hope that Europe is going to exit the crisis in 2014

The European Union has been blogging the speech here.

 

The language you use as a trader can provide either positive reinforcement through honest self awareness or negative results through demeaning self talk.  In other words, when discussing your trading with others or in your journal become aware of how you view yourself.  Do you see yourself as an amateur, a whipping post, a loser?  Do you blame an indicator or the market or an advisor for your failures and lack of discipline?  When you are with others do you brag about your winners and hide your losers?  All of this talk is based on fear:  fear of being wrong, fear of what others might think of you and your decisions; fear of the market; fear of being afraid.  When you practice positive self awareness  you create a fertile learning environment that allows you to grow and progress as a BETTER trader, not focus on BECOMING a GOOD trader (implying that you are a bad one).  When I work with individuals I often hear the following:  “If I would just do this I would become a good trader” or “If I had your discipline I would be a able to make money.”  These statements are grounded in a sense of doubt and fear.  Instead, these statements should be replaced with “I am becoming a BETTER trader because I know the market cannot hurt me” AND “I am becoming a BETTER trader the more I stick with my rules.”  See the difference between the two?  One is focused on the joy of progress; the other on the fear of not being good enough.  Are you focused on progress or failure? Listen to yourself and you will quickly figure it out.  It is EASY to get down on yourself and much HARDER to remain positive in the face of adversity. 

9 Wisdom Quotes from George Soros

01 August 2013 - 16:34 pm
 

George Soros doesn’t need an introduction. He is a living trading legend. Here are some of the smartest things he has ever said about markets. His thoughts are in brown.

1. Perceptions affect prices and prices affect perceptionsGeorge-Soros-gold

I believe that market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future. But distortion works in both directions: not only do market participants operate with a bias, but their bias can also influence the course of events.

For instance, the stock market is generally believed to anticipate recessions, it would be more correct to say that it can help to precipitate them. Thus I replace the assertion that markets are always right with two others: I) Markets are always biased in one direction or another; II) Markets can influence the events that they anticipate.

As long as the bias is self-reinforcing, expectations rise even faster than stock prices.

Nowhere is the role of expectations more clearly visible than in financial markets. Buy and sell decisions are based on expectations about future prices, and future prices, in turn are contingent on present buy and sell decisions.

2. On Reflexivity

Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values. One provides a static picture, the other a dynamic one.

Sometimes prices change before fundamentals change. Sometimes fundamentals change before prices change. Price is what pays and until expectations change, prices don’t change. What causes expectations to change? – it could be change in fundamentals or change in prices. So what I am saying is that sometimes prices could be manipulated to change expectations, which will fuel further price momentum in a self-reinforcing way.

3. “Once a trend is established it tends to persist and to run its full course.” – Sentiment changes slowly in trending markets (up or down) and extremely fast in choppy, range-bound markets.

4. “When a long-term trend loses it’s momentum, short-term volatility tends to rise. It is easy to see why that should be so: the trend-following crowd is disoriented.” >> Read More

 

NF-ICONAs a trader, nothing is more important than an acute picture of reality. Traders know that their decisions will result in losses. They also know that they need to know about these losses as soon as possible. A focus on what the market actually does, the market’s reality, keeps successful traders from burying their heads in the sand and pretending that the world is other than it actually is. 

Just as important as actively seeking reality and facing that reality doing something when that reality is now what you wanted, when the uncertain future brings the unhoped-for. When the market moves to price levels that a trader has previously determined would be the place to get out of a trade – by selling what he bought previously, for example – a competent trader will respond quickly and get out, thereby reducing his exposure to continued uncertainty to zero. 

One of the reasons that great traders can so easily reverse course is that they have a more sophisticated view of the meaning of error for decisions made under uncertainty. They understand that the fact that things did not turn out they way they had hoped does not necessarily mean that taking the trade was a mistake. They know that many times good ideas don’t work out. The very presence of uncertainty ensures that you will be wrong some of the time. All great traders put trades on for a particular reason, and they take them off for a particular reason too. Grate traders focus on the reasons for the trades instead of the outcomes for a few given trades. 

FRIDAY-2Last Close : 5943.90

(Now ,SGX Nifty up by 30 points at 5976 )

NF-27-JULY

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future

Really Looking Scary ,On Rise…………..Will SELL SELL SELL !!!

TODAY WHAT TO EXPECT

If crosses and stays above 5969 with volumes and stays above for 15-20 minutes or more then ??

Target : 6004———–6017 level.

7DEMA at 5991 level

Support intact at 5931———–5909 level.

Now if breaks and trades below of 5909 level with volumes will take to 5843-5821 level in hrs only.

More Details ,Intraday levels to our Subscribers.

95% or more Stocks ,Technically are Looking Weak Weak (Rally for 1 to 3 Days if happens ….U have to sell it )

Updated at 8:10/26th July/Baroda/India

 

NF-ICONTrading can be quite an emotional activity and this is especially true when real, hard earned money is at stake.

Traders who are not used to having their savings being tested in the market place will find that trading can drain them emotionally. If you are new to trading, every time you place a trade, you will feel excited, scared and hopeful all at the same time. Your heart pretty much pumps a few beat faster and every trade is a roller coaster ride for you.

Now, imagine if you are a Day Trader, you will likely place between 5 and 35 trades a day. All these “roller coaster rides” will just consume all your mental energy and you will end up having to rest for the remaining parts of the day. Alternative, you become so tired that you cannot (or struggle) to make rational trading decisions any more – which has often led to many losing trades.

12-1Last Close :6042

NF-22-JULY

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future !

On Friday ,We had mentioned :6067-6109 are Hurdles.It kissed 6074.40 & crashed Intraday.

alert_graphic

Watch RISING WEDGE on Chart (Dangerous Sign )

Today’s Wedge Hurdle at 6121 level 

now what to do

6109

Yes ,6067 & 6109 will act as Hurdle.Three Consecutive close above 6109+Weekly close will take to 6239—-6281 level

Support at 3 DEMA -6028 ,7 DEMA-5991

Yes ,If Breaks and trades with volumes below 5991 for 15-20 minutes then slide upto 5963-5954 is possible.

Manoyana Mano

Big Move of 150 Points on card in Nifty Future (Yes will see this move in next 72 hrs ?? )

Will it zoom to kiss 6200+ or will crash to kiss 5850 ??

EVERYTHING-MANIPULATION

*Forget Economy ,Data ,Inflation figure ,IIP…Just see Corporate Results….ALL Mind Blowing till Yesterday

*Don’t look at Economy figure (that are for 110-120 crore population ).Corporate results are for Corporate ,MF ,Fii’s ,Politicians !!

(Always Remembers :Company people they know results ,Figures and everything…..So they will manipulate stock price because this is result season )

(All the Data from S.E is leaked and known to few top shots in Mumbai )

(To Control Nifty Future ,Just u have to Control 10 stocks…Nothing else )

More Details to our Subscribers.

Updated at 7:33/22nd July/Baroda/India

5 bits of trading wisdom

18 July 2013 - 15:44 pm
 
  1. Most of the time, you want to own the stock before it breaks out, then sell it to the momentum players after it breaks out. If you buy breakouts, realize that professional traders are handing off their positions to you in order to test the strength of the trend. They will typically buy it back below the breakout point—which is typically where you will set your stop when you buy a breakout. Greed comes into play when the stock breaks out again, and the momentum players are forced to chase it and “pay up” for the stock. Be aware of how trends are established and use that to your advantage to enter and exit positions.
  2. Embracing your opinion leads to financial ruin. When you find yourself rationalizing or justifying a decline by saying things like, “They are just shaking out weak hands here,” or “The market makers are just dropping the bid here,” then you are embracing your opinion. Don’t hang onto a loser. Cut your losses. You can always get back in.
  3. Unfortunately, discipline is typically not learned until you have wiped out a trading account. Until you have wiped out an account, you typically think it cannot happen to you. It is precisely that attitude that makes you hold onto losers and rationalize them all the way into the ground.
  4. Siphoning out your trading profits each month and sticking them in a money market account is a good practice. This action helps to focus your attitude that this is a business, and your business should generate profits on a monthly basis.
  5. “Professional traders only place a small portion of their assets into 1 position. Or if they take on a large position, then they strictly limit their risk to 1-2% of their current equity. Amateurs typically place a large portion of their assets into 1 position, and they give it “room to move” in case they are actually right. This type of situation creates emotions that ruin accounts, while professionals are able to make decisions and cut losses because they strictly define their risk.”
 

NF-ICON-ASROne of the reasons that great traders can so easily reverse course is that they have a more sophisticated view of the meaning of error for decisions made under uncertainty. They understand that the fact that things did not turn out they way they had hoped does not necessarily mean that taking the trade was a mistake. They know that many times good ideas don’t work out. The very presence of uncertainty ensures that you will be wrong some of the time. All great traders put trades on for a particular reason, and they take them off for a particular reason too. Grate traders focus on the reasons for the trades instead of the outcomes for a few given trades.

Just as important as actively seeking reality and facing that reality doing something when that reality is now what you wanted, when the uncertain future brings the unhoped-for. When the market moves to price levels that a trader has previously determined would be the place to get out of a trade – by selling what he bought previously, for example – a competent trader will respond quickly and get out, thereby reducing his exposure to continued uncertainty to zero. 

thu18Last Close :5970

Yesterday ,We had mentioned 5991 is Hurdle.It kissed 5998 & Intraday taken slide upto 5932 level.

Our Crucial Support was at 5883 & still valid.

We had given Hint too :RIL +ITC + HLL :Holding firm……..Controlling Nifty Future (What Happened u all know ? )

Now -What to expect

No Need to Change levels.Watch :5984 ,5991 as HURDLES.

Now Crossover above 5991 with volumes and stays above for 20 minutes or more will take to 6014–6021 & there after ?

Support at 5956.Break with volumes will take to 5942—-5937 level in panic.

alert

Not Crossing 6045 level and staying below 5955 will take to 5901—–5883 level !!

Will it Form Right Shoulder or Will flare up ??

More Details to our Subscribers.

Updated at 7:31/18th July/Baroda/India

 

In trading, and in anything in life, we need to be focus and committed to achieving excellence in what ever we do. However, you need to remember that there will always be more than one way to reach a destination. Yes, let me repeat, there will always be more than one way to achieving a goal.

Stay committed to your decisions but stay flexible in your approach.

If you believe what I say, and you should at least try to, then you’ll realise that the methodology that you’ve learnt about trading is the only thing you know at the moment. And, unfortunately for many, you don’t know what you don’t know.

To overcome that, you need to be hungry and curious about learning new markets and new trading systems all the time – continuous development. Nonetheless, you’ll also need to be discipline and structured about how you learn them. The last thing you want to do is to be jumping around trading everything that moves in the market place. Do you get my point?

Once you become a flexible trader, you can trade anything you want and make as much money (from the market) as you like. Right?

Now, the key question. If the market has no influence on you (as to how you make money), how can it have any influence on you now?

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.