After yesterday’s violent gap up in stocks across the globe in response to the “expected” outcome from the French election, today the risk on sentiment has continued if to a lesser extent, with stocks in Europe, Asia all rising while S&P futures point to a higher open. Yen, gold decline, while the euro traded as high as 1.09 this morning before fading some gains; oil is up modestly.
While today’s surge may have been more muted, world stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron’s victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform and the overnight report that Trump has conceded on the border wall, eliminating a government shutdown as a potential risk. As shown below, the MSCI All World Index has jumped to a new all time high, boosted by strong Asian markets.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%, hovering near its highest level since June 2015 hit earlier in the session, on its fourth straight day of gains. Japan’s Nikkei rose more than 1 percent to a three-week high aided by a weaker yen. South Korea’s also advanced 0.7 percent to its highest level since April 2015. China equities climbed from a three-month low on speculation that a selloff over concerns of a regulatory crackdown were overdone. Australia and New Zealand were closed for Anzac Day.
European stocks hovered near a 20-month high, with the Dax flirting with all time highs. The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged 0.2% higher after jumpin 2.1% on Monday to the highest since August 2015, with property and technology shares helping to underpin a global rally. French shares pulled back 0.1 percent, having risen 4.1 percent on Monday in their biggest daily gain since August 2012. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent. The index climbed 1.1% Monday to within 1% of its all-time closing high.
These gains helped push MSCI’s world stocks index to a fresh all-time high after chalking up its biggest rise since shortly after Britain’s vote last June to leave the European Union.
Prior to Friday’s report, IMF currency data was limited to the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, UK pound sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, and an indistinguishable category of “other currencies.”
“With the separate identification of reserves in RMB [Renminbi], eight currencies are now distinguished,” the IMF publication stated.
Chinese holdings of US dollars were $5.1 trillion at the end of 2016, compared with $10.8 trillion in total foreign currency reserves, the report explained.
The remainder was divided among other currencies, with euro holdings the largest at $1.6 trillion, according to the IMF.
Publicity is nearly irrelevant and the means of spreading the word are at your fingertips.
Successful artists are making more money in adjusted dollars than they ever were, just not as much as bankers or techies. Furthermore, there are many avenues of revenue. Endorsements, merch, privates…and live pays better than ever before.
A quiet one … I shoulda let them write the Wrap Meeting of finance chiefs from the Group of 20 Traders are monitoring how China and Japan will react to pressure from Mr. Mnuchin to strengthen their currencies against the U.S. dollar, said Khoon Goh, head of research for Asia at ANZ. “There is a lot of interest if there will be any material changes out of the G-20,” he said. US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin is expected to urge China, Japan, Germany and other G-20 members to keep their promise to not use their exchange rates for competitive gains Link to the Journal, may be gated, but you get the gist.
Following this morning’s soaring inflationary and retail sales data, and following Yellen’s hawkish tone yesterday, March rate-hike odds have soared from below 25% to over 40%. The Dollar Index is extending its recent winning streak on this move – now up 11 days in a row, the longest streak since May 2012.
Rate hike odds are ripping higher as The Fed gets its way of pricing in a March rate hike…
And The Dollar Index continues to rise…
This is the longest USD win streak since May 2012.
July 1975 – 11 days in a row
Sept 1975 – 11 days in a row
May 2012 – 14 days in a row
Feb 2017 – 11 days in a row
And notably, if extends to 12 days tomorrow, will be the second longest winning streak in dollar history.
As the dollar continues to tumble (and amid China’s quite period during Golden Week), Bitcoin has gently begun to shake off China ‘probe’ weakness and extend its gains once again. For the first time since January 5th, Bitcoin is trading above $1000…
A new report from Standard Chartered estimates capital flows out of China totalled almost $730bn in 2016, a near-record level.
Analysts Shuang Ding and Lan Shen estimated outflows had moderated in December to $66bn, down from November’s $75bn.
Beneath the headline figure foreign direct investment flows turned positive for the first time in eight months with a $3bn inflow, while non-FDI outflows remained unchanged from the previous month at $69bn.
The analysts estimated December’s outflows brought the annual total for 2016 to $728bn, close to the previous year’s record high of $744bn.
They also estimated China’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen $41bn last month to end the year at $3.01tn as depreciation of the euro, yen and pound against the greenback. That reduced the dollar value of China’s holdings in those currencies by about $13bn.
Until last night’s Trump statement that the US dollar is overvalued, it was smooth sailing for Wall Street’s momentum chasers, who happily piled into what until recently was Wall Street’s most crowded trade. How crowded?
For the latest answer, we go to the latest just released monthly Fund Managers Survey conducted by BofA’s Michael Hartnett who shows that according to Wall Streeters themselves, the dollar is the most crowded trade by orders of magnitude. In fact, in January the number of respondents who said the “Long USD” is the most crowded trade has risen from 35% in December to a whopping 47%, the highest response rate in the last few years of the survey. Far behind, in second and third place, are “short government bonds” and “long high quality/minimum vol” both at 11%.
What makes this observation paradoxical is how reflexive it is, because in the same report BofA writes that contrarians note “long US dollar seen as most crowded trade by a country mile”, and adds that the percentage of investors who think USD is overvalued is the highest in over a decade, or since Nov’06 (net 22%).
Still, they refuse to sell… until now. Because now that the president-elect has publicly taken the other side of the trade, we urge readers to take a second look at RCB’s warning that the “Pain Trade”, i.e. the inversion of Long-USD positions, has begun.
Stocks ended mixed Thursday as retailers dominated the news with Macy’s and Kohl’s both plunging following weak holiday-season reports that led the chains to cut their profit forecasts.
Still, the Nasdaq composite’s modest gain of 11 points, or 0.2%, was enough to notch a new all-time high. Settling at at 5487.94, it topped the old record by half a point.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished down 43 points, a 0.2% decline to 19,899.29. Losing 0.1% was the S&P 500, which settled at 2269 even.
nvestors were also focusing on upcoming U.S. jobs data following the publication of the minutes to the Federal Reserve’s last board meeting.
Private U.S. companies added 153,000 jobs in December, according to payroll processor ADP. That total was a bit lower than analysts expected and slightly slower than the pace of hiring for the rest of 2016. The government will issue its own hiring report on Friday.