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Sun, 22nd January 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “dow jones industrial average” Tag

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +95 points.

Stocks snapped their losing streak Friday as Donald Trump took the oath of office for president of the United States.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 95 points, or 0.5%, to 19,827 Friday, preventing what would have been the sixth straight down day in a row. The gains pushed the Dow back into the plus column for the year.

The Trump rally had been losing its gusto before the inauguration as investors worried that policy changes when the administration began might be less stimulative than hoped. All three major market measures, the Dow, the Standard & Poor’s 500index and the Nasdaq Composite, are down 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4%, for the week, respectively.

That’s why the strength Friday came as a relief. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 0.3% to 2,271, just shy of its record closing high of 2,276.98 notched Jan. 6. The Nasdaq composite index was up 0.3% to 5,555 as it moved back closer to its record close of ,5,574.12.

Despite Friday’s gains, it was overall a negative week for stocks as investors fretted over what Trump might say in his inauguration speech regarding trade and government spending. Investors have been trying to price in the positives of lower tax rates and fiscal stimulation in the form of government infrastructure projects but also the negatives of trade restrictions and tariffs.

Such uncertainty is a reminder to investors that trying to time this kind of change is perilous.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was stable at 2.47%. The recent rise in Treasury yields has moderated lately. Treasury rates hit their highest point over the past 12 months on Dec. 27 at 2.56%. Treasury yields have been generally rising since July 2016 as investors expect inflation to increase. The yield on the 10-year has intensified as investors prepare for President Trump’s government spending plans, which are likely to increase the country’s level of debt.

Overnight US MARKET :Dow closed -59 points.

Investor skittishness over coming policies under soon-to-be-president Donald Trump just days before his inauguration put stocks in the red Tuesday and pushed the Dow down for a third straight session.

Also haunting the market was another weak day for bank stocks, a sector that had performed strong at the start of the so-called “Trump rally” after Election Day but is running into profit taking. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) were down nearly 4% despite posting its best fourth-quarter since the financial crisis, while Goldman Sachs (GS) fell 3.3% and Citigroup (C) tumbled 2.1%.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 59 points, or 0.3%, to 19,827, or roughly 175 points shy of 20,000. At its low point, the Dow was down more than 110 points.

Markets were reacting to Trump comments in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the U.S. dollar is “too strong” and could hurt U.S. multinationals. The president-elect also questioned an alternative tax reform plan being discussed by Republicans in the House of Representatives. A strong dollar hurts sales and earnings of U.S. companies that do a lot of business abroad.

Trump’s comments, not unlike some of his tweets that have caught investors by surprise on individual companies, created fresh uncertainty about what policies will actually be enacted once Trump takes office after Friday’s inauguration. Trump’s latest comments were viewed as new information by Wall Street.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down almost 7 points, or 0.3%, to 2267.89, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.6% to 5538.73.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.329%.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -63 points (Intraday was down 180 pts )

Stocks dipped Thursday but finished off early, sharp lows, giving back  gains from the day before.

The Nasdaq composite, off 0.3%, snapped a seven-day winning streak and posted its first loss of 2017.

Losing as much as 180 points earlier, the Dow settled for a 63-point loss, 0.3% lower, to 19,891 even. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%.

Financial, industrial and technology stocks were down the most, while phone company and real estate stocks edged higher. Investors were turning their focus to the next wave of corporate earnings reports in the weeks ahead.

Banks and other financial companies were down as the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell. Lower yields mean lower interest rates on loans and lower profits for banks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.35% from 2.37% late Wednesday.

Benchmark crude oil finished up 76 cents, or 1.5%, to $53.01 a barrel in New York.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX ended down 1.1%, while France’s CAC 40 lost 0.5% despite new data showing eurozone industrial production jumped 1.5% in November. Britain’s FTSE 100 ended flat. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 1.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.5%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi bucked the trend to rise 0.6%.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +99 points. 46 pts short to cross 20k;Nasdaq at new high

Stocks ended higher Wednesday — and the super-hot Nasdaq notched another new high — in a volatile session that saw sharp swings after President-elect Donald Trump met with the press in a news conference for the first time in six months.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 99 points, or 0.5% to 19,954.28, while the S&P 500 ended up 0.3% to about a point and half shy of its record closing high of 2276.98.

It was the seventh winning session in a row for the Nasdaq composite, which gained 0.2%. It notched a new closing high of 5563.65, a dozen points above the previous record set the day before.

Health care stocks got hit after Trump criticized the industry moving production overseas as well as the bidding process for drugs. Energy stocks continued their strength as oil prices headed higher.

The health care sector was the biggest loser among the S&P 500 sectors. Trump said the government has to create new bidding procedures for the pharmaceutical drug industry “because they’re getting away with murder.” The remarks sent the S&P health care sector down 1.7%. Several pharmaceutical companies slumped, with Endo International (ENDP) falling 9%, the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. Perrigo (PRGO) lost 7% and Mallinckrodt (MNK) tumbled 7%.

Energy stocks were the biggest winners as oil prices jumped. Benchmark U.S. crude rose rose $1.43, or 2.8%, to $52.25 a barrel in electronic trading. Shares of Exxon Mobil rose 0.8%.

Bond prices rose after Trump’s news conference, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 2.37% from 2.38% Tuesday.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -43 points.

Stocks ended mixed Thursday as retailers dominated the news with Macy’s and Kohl’s both plunging following weak holiday-season reports that led the chains to cut their profit forecasts.

Still, the Nasdaq composite’s modest gain of 11 points, or 0.2%, was enough to notch a new all-time high. Settling at at 5487.94, it topped the old record by half a point.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished down 43 points, a 0.2% decline to 19,899.29. Losing 0.1% was the S&P 500, which settled at 2269 even.

nvestors were also focusing on upcoming U.S. jobs data following the publication of the minutes to the Federal Reserve’s last board meeting.

Private U.S. companies added 153,000 jobs in December, according to payroll processor ADP. That total was a bit lower than analysts expected and slightly slower than the pace of hiring for the rest of 2016. The government will issue its own hiring report on Friday.

Global Debt Hits 325% Of World GDP, Rises To Record $217 Trillion

While we eagerly await the next installment of the McKinsey study on global releveraging, we noticed that in the latest report from the Institute for International Finance released on Wednesday, total debt as of Q3 2016 once again rose sharply, increasing by $11 trillion in the first 9 months of the year, hitting a new all time high of $217 trillion. As a result, late in 2016, global debt levels are now roughly 325% of the world’s gross domestic product.

In terms of composition, emerging market debt rose substantially, as government bond and syndicated loan issuance in 2016 grew to almost three times its 2015 level. And, as has traditionally been the case, China accounted for the lion’s share of the new debt, providing $710 million of the total $855 billion in new issuance during the year, the IIF reported.

Joining other prominent warnings, the IIF warned that higher borrowing costs in the wake of the U.S. presidential election and other stresses, including “an environment of subdued growth and still-weak corporate profitability, a stronger (U.S. dollar), rising sovereign bond yields, higher hedging costs, and deterioration in corporate creditworthiness” presented challenges for borrowers.

Additionally, “a shift toward more protectionist policies could also weigh on global financial flows, adding to these vulnerabilities,” the IIF warned.

“Moreover, given the importance of the City of London in debt issuance and derivatives (particularly for European and EM firms), ongoing uncertainties surrounding the timing and nature of the Brexit process could pose additional risks including a higher cost of borrowing and higher hedging costs.”

For now, however, record debt despite rising interest rates, remain staunchly bullish and the equity market’s only concern is just when will the Dow Jones finally crack 20,000. 

Sadly, since we don’t have access to the underlying data in the IIF report, we leave readers with a snapshot of just the global bond market courtesy of the latest JPM quarterly guide to markets. It provides a concise snapshot of the indebted state of the world.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 60 points.Now 58 points away to kiss 20k

Stocks climbed Wednesday as Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains in the new year and the Dow once again approached the 20,000 milestone.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 60 points, or 0.3%, to 19,942.16. The blue-chip index rose has come close to topping 20,000 several times in recent weeks but each time it gets near has pulled back. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.9%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near their record closing highs.

Stocks maintained their gains following the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting that provided clues to why policymakers raised interest rates in December for only the second time since 2006 and forecast three rate hikes in 2017 instead of the two moves previously anticipated.

Fed officials said they might have to raise interest rates faster than anticipated to prevent rapidly falling unemployment and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal stimulus from fueling excessive inflation, according to minutes of the Fed’s December 13-14 meeting.

Benchmark U.S. crude was up 1.8% to $53.24 a barrel in New York. It lost $1.39 on Tuesday.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +119 points

What a difference a year makes. The U.S. stock market kicked off the first day of trading of 2017 with solid gains, a year after plunging in the opening session of 2016 on its way to its worst week to start a year ever.

The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index — which closed up 0.9% to 2258 — posted a gain on the first trading day of a new year for the first time since 2013. Last year, the large-company stock index cratered 1.53% on January’s first trading session — its sixth-worst Day 1 percentage loss and worst annual kickoff since 2001 —   on its way to a worst-ever first week of the year decline of 5.96%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P 500, however, rebounded and finished 2016 up 9.5%.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose as much 176 points before pulling back and finishing up 119 points, or 0.6%, to 19,882. The blue-chip index came within 105 points of 20,000 after a late-year flirtation with the milestone fell short. The technology-packed Nasdaq rose 0.9% and the small-company Russell 2000 stock index, which gained 19.5% in 2016, finished up 0.5%.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -57 points.Now 237 points short of 20k

Stocks sank on the last trading day of 2016, with the Dow now 237 points short of the 20,000 milestone that it came closest to hitting on Dec. 20.

It was merely a weak end to a very strong year, however, with the S&P 500 gaining 9.5% and the small-company Russell 2000 jumping 19.5% for 2016.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.3%, off 57 points to 19,762.60. But for 2016, the blue chips gained 13.4%.

The S&P 500 ended 0.5% lower for the day, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.9%

Global stocks mostly rose on the year’s last day of trading, with Britain’s index rallying to hit another all-time high. The FTSE 100, which was trading for only a half day, rose 0.3%. That leaves the index 14.4% higher over 2016. Elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.5%.

Global Equities Encountering Resistance At Year-End

The Global Dow Index is running into its long-term Down trendline stemming from the 2007 all-time peak.

Here in the U.S., equity investors have been a bit spoiled as they’ve watched index after index break into all-time high ground this year. Around the globe, investors have not been so lucky. Yes, most international indices have rallied solidly this year. However, with few exceptions, the rallies have still left these international markets shy of their all-time highs. One illustration of this situation can be seen in a chart of the Global Dow Index (GDOW).

We’ve posted many times on the GDOW due to its reliable conformity to technical charting tools, despite the fact that very little money is traded off of it. Additionally, we have found it to be an accurate barometer of the state of the global equity market. Specifically, the GDOW is an equally-weighted index of 150 of the world’s largest stocks. While this includes U.S.-based companies, its heavy dose of international exposure has led to its aforementioned position below its all-time high.

Furthermore, it is currently running into potential resistance in the form of its post-2007 Down trendline connecting the 2007, 2014 and 2015 tops.

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