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Thu, 22nd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “economic and monetary union” Tag

Le Pen to Hold Referendum on French EU Exit in First Half of 2018 if Elected

Image result for Le PenThe first round of the French presidential elections is scheduled for this Sunday, while the run-off is set for May 7.

“Marine Le Pen said that she wanted an exit of the European Union organized with our European partners and that this departure would be sanctioned by a referendum. [Which will be held] undoubtedly in the first half of 2018,” David Rachline said.

According to Le Pen’s campaign manager, she also wants to “drastically change economic policy, while putting an end to increasing financialization and globalization of the economy.”

“We were warned of a catastrophe with the Brexit vote, the facts, however, disagree with those merchants of fear who in reality do not want us to touch this system, which grants them numerous advantages!” Rachline pointed out.

The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union and the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election in 2016 were seen as big victories for the anti-establishment and anti-globalist movement. Le Pen’s approach seems in sync with the growing anti-globalism trend.

ECB’s Cœuré: Fortify eurozone before ‘next storm hits’

Eurozone policymakers should undertake ambitious efforts to strength the currency union after the Brexit vote, to protect the continent before “the next storm hits”, one of the European Central Bank’s most senior policymakers has said.

Benoît Cœuré, executive board member of the central bank, called on national governments and Brussels to redouble their efforts to create a banking union and pool more fiscal powers in the EU, following the UK’s vote to leave the bloc.

“None of us want to live in a half-built house because it will get very uncomfortable as soon as the next storm hits”, Mr Cœuré told an audience in Italy on Monday.

“We need to work on completing EMU [European monetary union] also after Brexit”, he said, delivering a speech entitled “having confidence in Europe”.

Repeating the central bank’s increasingly urgent calls for integration to meet the needs of eurozone citizens, Mr Cœuré said reform must be “linked to people’s needs”:

Europe Threatens To Require Visas From Americans And Canadians

According to Reuters, the European Union is considering whether or not to require US and Canadian citizens to obtain a visa before traveling to the bloc. Currently, the US enjoys a visa waiver program with the majority of the European Union that is reciprocated on both sides of the Atlantic. Of course, the introduction of the more restrictive process of obtaining a formal travel Visa would hinder tourism for the European Union, something the local economy desperately needs to remain intact.

This may be driven by the fact that the United States hasn’t yet lifted visa requirements for some EU member countries such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Poland. But more likely, this is just a bit of gamesmanship on the part of the EU. The US and European Union are in ongoing negotiation regarding the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and there appear to be some sticking points that the two sides can’t quite come to an agreement on – namely labor, environmental, and regulatory standards.

As Reuters adds, “trade negotiations between Brussels and Washington are at a crucial point since both sides believe their transatlantic agreement, known as TTIP, stands a better chance of passing before President Barack Obama leaves the White House in January.”

The latest US Statement on the TTIP negotiations in Brussels sheds some light on why the EU may be stepping up their rhetoric: 

This round comes just three weeks after the signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.  We look forward to concluding a similarly high standard agreement with the European Union.

 

S&P -Long-Term Ratings On Italy Lowered To ‘BBB’; Outlook Negative (Full Text )

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ECB Warns Calm Before Storm Ending

The European Central Bank warned yesterday that six quarters of recession are eroding the resilience of banks and risk ending what it describes as ‘the calmest period in financial markets since 2011’. As Bloomberg’s Niraj Shah notes, the Bloomberg Euro-area Financial Conditions Index has averaged 0.31 this year, compared with 1.47 in 2012 and the measure has only ended in negative territory on three days this year. However, it has very recently fallen to its lowest in a month as financial CDS begin to rise (even with Mrs. Watanabe’s presence) to once again wider on the year. As The ECB adds, Financial stability conditions in the euro area remain fragile. Several vulnerabilities in the interaction between sovereigns, banks and the macroeconomy persist.”

 Via The ECB:

  

Financial stability conditions in the euro area remain fragile.

 

Several vulnerabilities in the interaction between sovereigns, banks and the macroeconomy persist. Further concrete action by the public and private sector is needed to durably sever negative feedback loops between distressed sovereigns, increasingly diverging economic growth prospects at the country level and concerns about the financial soundness of banks. A roadmap has been drawn up for completing Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Its completion, including notably the part related to the banking union, is essential. Read More 

Barroso: we don’t have all the answers on EMU

José Manuel Barroso is outling his vision for European Monetary Union now, at a conference on the EC’s “Blueprint for a deep and genuine EMU

Barroso said “the world has moved on” since economic and monetary union was set up, and talked about the implications of not pushing for closer polital union at the same time.

He claimed the crisis was caused by “broken rules” rather than genuinely bad institutions, and argued that the Cyprus bailout would have been less traumatic if banking union had been in place.

Barroso doesn’t appear to outline a fresh vision for the eurozone, saying:

We don’t have the intention or insolence to think we have all the answers.

G20 draft leaked ahead of meeting

A draft of the G20 statement ahead of this week’s meeting in Moscow has apparently been obtained by Bloomberg. Here’s the deal:

  • G20 members recognize growth is still weak
  • Members recognize important risks remain
  • G20 committed to avoiding FX rate misalignment
  • Policy uncertainty and deleveraging hurt growth
  • Important risks remain
  • Stronger economic and monetary union needed
  • US and Japan need to resolve fiscal uncertainties

Of course, one of the key issues is the so-called currency wars, with countries using policy to influence their exchange rates. A confusing statement from the G7 earlier in the week emphasized the problems around this issue, with many questioning whether Japan’s actions were designed to weaken the yen and make the country more competitive. How the G20 tackles this issue is a key part of this weekend’s meeting.

S&P -Ratings On Greece Raised To ‘B-/B’ From Selective Default On Completion Of Debt Buyback; Outlook Stable

  • Greece has completed a distressed debt buyback.
  • Following completion of the transaction, we are raising our long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece to ‘B-/B’ from ‘SD’ (selective default).
  • The upgrade reflects our view of the strong determination of European Economic and Monetary Union (eurozone) member states to preserve Greek membership in the eurozone.
  • The outlook on the long-term rating is stable, balancing our view of the government’s commitment to a fiscal and structural adjustment against the economic and political challenges of doing so. Read More 

Complete Euro Currency Union Still Dubious

A new report Thursday lays out what euro-zone leaders must do to complete their currency union. But the leaders are likely to adopt an even tamer version of the report’s toned-down recommendations during a summit in Brussels next week.

In 15 pages, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy sketched out a road map “towards a genuine economic and monetary union,” designed to correct flaws in fiscal, financial and economic policies that have already driven five euro countries into the arms of hastily set-up bailout funds.

The report is meant to be the basis for discussions among European Union leaders on Dec. 13 and 14, and draws a timeline culminating in a joint budget for the euro zone.

Such a budget, Mr. Van Rompuy suggests, could act both as a buffer for shocks that hit one country more than its neighbors and an incentive for policy overhauls. To make those plans more digestible for politicians in Berlin or Helsinki, Mr. Van Rompuy ditched proposals for common bank-deposit insurance for the euro zone and joint government debts through mutual euro-zone bonds.

In contrast to a more ambitious paper released last month by the EU’s executive arm, the European Commission, the council president—whose role is to judge what governments are practically likely to agree to—also erred on the side of vagueness when dealing with more controversial ideas. Read More 

EU FinMins fail to reach agreement on uniform bank supervision

European Union (EU) finance ministers have failed to reach an agreement on a uniform supervisory mechanism for European banks, Cypriot Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly said here on late Tuesday.

“We have almost reached an agreement apart from a limited number of articles,” Shiarly, whose country is holding the rotating presidency of the EU, told reporters at a press conference after a meeting of EU finance ministers.

Shiarly added that the ministers had “mandated the ad hoc working group to continue its examinations” on the unresolved issues such as the European Banking Authority (EBA) voting, and that an extraordinary meeting would be called on Dec. 12.

The failed talks came as time was running out to draw up the legal framework for an EU-wide banking union by the end of the year. Read More