Sun, 01st May 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “emerging markets” Tag

China, India, Russia call for more reforms at IMF

The foreign ministers of China, Russia and India have issued a joint communiqué calling for further reforms at the International Monetary Fund granting emerging economies a greater voice.

The joint statement follows the close on Monday of the 14th Russia-India-China Foreign Ministers Meeting held this year in Moscow.

In it, the countries’ ministers welcomed implementation of draft reforms from 2010 meant to raise quotas and reallocate voting shares at the IMF to grant developing countries a greater role in international monetary policy. Conditions for implementing those reforms were only satisfied in January after half a decade of delay.

But the ministers went on to call on the IMF to push forward with further reforms to give emerging markets and developing nations greater representation and more say at the Fund “as quickly as possible”.

The communiqué, released in full today on the official website of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs – though at present available only in Chinese – also called for greater international and regional coordination by the three nations and reaffirmed China and Russia’s support of India’s desire for a greater role at the United Nations.

Fitch: Widespread Cuts in Growth Forecasts, But No Global Recession -Full Text

Fitch Ratings has made widespread downward revisions to growth forecasts in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO). While the biggest revisions have been to emerging market commodity producers – namely Brazil, Russia and South Africa – there have also been sizeable revisions in advanced economies. The breadth of the revisions is notable; however, it still leaves the growth outlook considerably above global recession territory.

“The investment slowdown in China and sharp expenditure compression in major commodity producing countries continue to reverberate around the world economy,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch.

Using our “Fitch 20”, a proxy for world GDP based on a weighted average of 20 of the largest advanced and emerging market countries, we forecast growth in advanced countries as a whole at 1.7% in 2016 down from 2.1% in December’s edition of the GEO. For emerging markets, 2016 growth is now pegged at 4.0%, down from 4.4% in December. The equal revisions for both the advanced and emerging country aggregates breaks the previous pattern of forecast changes, whereby weakening emerging market prospects were associated with much smaller downward revisions to the advanced country outlook. This reflects the fact that external and energy sector shocks are now having a clearer negative impact on advanced economy growth than previously anticipated.

Emerging Markets Capital Outflows Might Hit $1.2 Trillion by Late 2016

Commodity prices have plunged; the decline has accelerated over the last year. Currencies have witnessed devaluations, and stocks and bond routs have prevailed across most emerging markets; capital outflows have hit some $735 bln in 2015; $448 bln in outflows are expected this year. Overall, during 2015-2016, safe-haven assets in advanced nations will attract about $1.2 trln in investment, as estimated by the Washington-based Institute of International Finance. Bucking the trend, US Treasuries are rising in price, causing a decline in yield and intimidating US growth prospects, while one of the least likely safe-haven assets, the Japanese yen, is rising against the dollar, harming the nation’s exporters.

Imbalances in international capital flows are being exacerbated amidst the developing nations’ gloom as the slump in commodities, economic and political mismanagement and corruption have triggered massive outflows, with investors seeking safer assets in developed markets. An influx of some $735 bln in capital in 2015, with another $448 bln due in 2016, is hardly good news for the advanced economies, as the abundance of international investment is heating up the hottest sectors, like banking and overall finance, barely reaching the real economy.

Consequently, the global capital flows’ discrepancy might trigger dangerous imbalances within the advanced economies.

In 2015, China alone lost some $676 bln of investment capital, according to IIF data. IIF’s previous estimates placed the total amount of emerging markets outflows for 2015 at some $348 bln, but the actual number turned out to be about twice that much.

Global unemployment set to rise-ILO

The number of jobless people in the world is set to rise this year, as problems in emerging markets prevent the global unemployment rate from returning to pre-crisis levels.

The International Labour Organisation, a UN agency, forecasts that the number of unemployed people in emerging and developing countries will increase by 4.8m in the next two years.

In particular, rising jobless numbers in China, Brazil, Russia and elsewhere will offset improvements in the US and Europe, it says. The ILO’s annual employment report warns will such problems will hold back the expansion of the middle class and risk fuelling social discontent.

“The significant slowdown in emerging economies coupled with a sharp decline in commodity prices is having a dramatic effect on the world of work,” Guy Ryder, the ILO’s director general, said.

The rise in the number of the world’s jobless from 197m in 2015 to 199m this year, would keep 2016’s global jobless rate at 5.8 per cent — the same as the last two years — because of population growth.

2016’s Planet Of The Aches

Some ‘aches and pains’ are constraining the global economy, with JPMorgan warning of more severe strains occurring in the emerging world. These aggravating but generally not life-threatening conditions are meant to convey a slow growth world, but, JPM is careful to note, not one on the immediate precipice of collapse or recession.

Source: JPMorgan

The key issue for 2016 then is whether economic illnesses in emerging markets will result in contagion in the developed world as “dollar altitude sickness” and “earnings anemia” do little to support the domestic ‘immune’ system.

Visualizing The World’s “Hot” Money

Every year, roughly $1 trillion flows illegally out of developing and emerging economies due to crime, corruption, and tax evasion. This amount is more than these countries receive in foreign direct investment and foreign aid combined.

This week, a new report was released that highlights the latest data available on this “hot” money. Assembled by Global Financial Integrity, a research and advisory organization based in Washington, DC, the report details illicit financial flows of money from developing countries using the latest information available, which is up until the end of 2013.

Rating agencies ‘not biased against’ Emerging Markets

Rating agencies do not systematically discriminate against emerging market countries by unfairly awarding them lower credit ratings than developed nations, according to analysis published by the Bank for International Settlements.

Emerging market governments and investors have long argued they are the victims of an ingrained bias against them by Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Services and Standard & Poor’s, the three US-based agencies that dominate the sector.

In particular, they argue it is wrong that EM sovereigns typically have a lower credit rating than developed world governments despite, in most cases, having a lower debt burden as a proportion of gross domestic product.

Analysis by Frank Packer of the BIS and Marlene Amstad of the Chinese University of Kong Kong, Shenzhen, demonstrates clearly that EMs tend to have lower ratings than developed economies despite being less indebted.

How to read the signals from emerging markets

Look carefully into the middle distance. Can we see the long-awaited bottom for emerging markets from here?

Market sentiment turned brutally and decisively against the emerging world five years ago. Since then, stock markets have steadily dropped further behind the developed world, currencies have devalued and countless indicators of economic health have grown ever more sickly.

Emerging markets have always been a story of commodities. It is the emerging world, led by China, that largely produces and consumes industrial commodities. In practice, at least when viewed through the lens of markets, emerging market stocks make up a complex with other assets tied to the health of the resources economy.

Some of those assets are now hitting the kind of lows that suggest the cycle cannot have much further to go. The price of iron ore in Qingdao, the widely accepted benchmark for Chinese metal consumption, is down 76 per cent from its 2011 peak. The broader Bloomberg industrial metals index is also at post-crisis lows.

The Baltic Dry index, a measure of the cost of shipping commodities around the world, subsided this week to its lowest ever. It has now dropped 95.5 per cent from its peak set in 2008, shortly before the financial crisis. Such numbers raise hopes that the cycle is ready to turn, and some analysts — notably Capital Economics of London, which has boldly suggested emerging markets are a “buy” for a few months — believe the bottom is close.

Emerging market equity valuations slide to record low

The sell-off in emerging market equities has pushed valuations to an all-time low, by one measure at least, reflecting the marked underperformance of the asset class since the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Emerging market equities have delivered a total return of minus 2.1 per cent since

Despite this potential buy signal, analysts are not queueing up to argue that emerging market equities are wildly undervalued.

“The latest leg of correction leaves emerging markets as the unambiguously cheap segment of global equity on a fundamental basis [but], with the exception of Russia, valuations simply haven’t become cheap enough,” says George Iwanicki, emerging markets macro strategist at JPMorgan AM.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell to a valuation of just 12.8 times 10-year average earnings at the end of September, according to calculations by JPMorgan AM, taking it below the previous nadir of 13.5 times during the 1997-98 Asian financial crises.

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings multiple is now barely half its long-term average of 25 times average 10-year earnings.

In contrast, the US S&P 500 index is trading at 23.4 times cyclically adjusted earnings, within a whisker of its long-term average of 23.6. The MSCI Europe Index is at 15.1, against an average of 20.6.

Diverging DM-EM Equities

The main divergence we have emphasized is in monetary policy trajectories.  The first phase, which began late last year and will run through this month is other countries taking action to ease policy.  The Fed stood pat.  The second phase is when the Fed lifts rates and many others continue to ease, perhaps at an accelerated rate.  
There is another divergence that is taking place.  As thisGreat Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows, the MSCI Emerging equity market index (yellow line) is widely under-performing MSCI’s World Index, which tracks developed countries’ equities (white line).

As the chart illustrates, in the first quarter, the two were comparable.  When it become clear due to the weakness of US Q1 economic data that the Fed was unlikely to raise rates in June, the dollar fell and emerging markets outperformed in April and May.   Commodities in general, and oil in particular rallied during then as well.  The CRB index peaked in May as did oil.  Emerging market equities unwound the overshoot, and by the end of Q2 were actually under-performing the developed equities by a fraction. 
Between the end of June and late-August, oil fell by a third.   The price of copper fell by a quarter from May through August.  The Greek political drama and worries about the Chinese economy were also a weight.  The reversal of the Chinese stock market also took a toll.  From the February low through the June high, the Shanghai Composite rallied 70%.  From the June high to the August low, the Shanghai Composite lost 45%, which was sufficient to push it to new lows for the year.