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Tue, 25th April 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “English-language films” Tag

Big OPEC producers want $60 oil – report

WSJ says target price raised

  • Iraq oil minister: “Iraq wants prices to rise to $60. This our aim”
  • WSJ says Saudis and Kuwait also targeting $60

The WSJ is out with a story that’s bullish for oil. They say main producers had been seeking $55 per barrel but now want $60. They believe that level will boost their economies without attracting too much US shale drilling.

The higher price target suggests they will support an extension of quotas at meetings scheduled for the end of May.

The target is symbolic, the WSJ says, but “offers a window into how serious they are about using their supply power to affect the market.”

The big upcoming event is the Saudi Aramco IPO and that’s what is motivating the discipline from the Kingdom.

“They need this price [$60] for the IPO of Saudi Aramco,” a person familiar with Saudi oil policy told the WSJ.

China’s top securities regulator vows to punish “iron roosters” with no dividend payout

China’s top securities regulator urged listed companies to reward investors with cash dividends, vowing to punish stingy “iron roosters.”

Liu Shiyu, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also warned listed firms against raising money for blind investments, or designing complicated share structures that facilitate insider trading and other malpractices.

 “Paying cash dividends is a basic way to reward investors … and the ultimate source of a stock’s intrinsic value,” Liu said in a recent speech, a transcript of which was posted on CSRC’s website on Saturday.

CSRC will take “tough measures” against those “iron roosters” who haven’t plucked a single feature for many years, even though they have the ability to pay dividends, Liu said.

Liu, installed as head of China’s securities watchdog following the 2015 stock market crash, has made investor protection his priority, having stepped up a crackdown on market manipulation and tightened disclosure rules.

Samsung forecasts best quarterly profit in over 3 yrs as chips soar

South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics Co Ltd forecast on Friday its best quarterly profit in more than three years in the January-March period, beating expectations on the back of robust demand for memory chips.

The Apple Inc rival and global memory chip leader said first-quarter operating profit was likely 9.9 trillion won ($8.8 billion), compared with an average forecast of 9.4 trillion won from a Thomson Reuters survey of 18 analysts.

 Revenue for the quarter rose 0.4 percent to 50 trillion won, compared with analysts’ forecast of 49.4 trillion won.

Samsung shares touched a record high of 2.134 million won in late March on expectations of record earnings in 2017, as limited production capacity for the memory chip industry and growing demand for more firepower from devices such as smartphones and servers push up margins.

While Samsung will not provide detailed earnings results until the end of April, analysts tipped its chip division to earn a record 5.8 trillion won and propel the firm to its best overall operating profit since the third quarter of 2013.

Favourable memory market conditions will likely persist throughout 2017 due to diminishing production gains on investments and careful capacity management among chipmakers.

Japan’s real GDP likely up 2% in February: JCER

Japanese real gross domestic product rose 2% on the month in February, the Japan Center for Economic Research estimated Tuesday.

The second straight month of growth was driven by a 6.4% jump in exports as automobiles and other products scored sharp gains.

 Consumer spending inched up 0.2%, buoyed by strong sales of new cars.

Housing investment climbed 2.7%. But capital spending fell 1.1%, partly on sluggish investment in machinery.

10 Favorite Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Although Jessie’s life ended too early, his words of wisdom live on for discovery. The book is filled with obscure references and colorful characters long forgotten by the general public, but the key themes of the text remain as relevant as ever. Therefore, I’ve pulled out my favorite quotes, below, though I highly recommend reading the entire text.

  1. There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
  2. The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among professionals.
  3. I never lose my temper over the stock market. I never argue the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn’t get you anywhere.
  4. They say you can never go poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market. Where I should have made twenty thousand I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.
  5. Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  6. A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street…nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
  7. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was the sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!
  8. Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it…But being wrong—not taking the loss—that is what does the damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.
  9. Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest.
  10. The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you hope that every day will be the last day—and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope—the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out—too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts…Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope.

Challenges/Rewards

CHALLENGE

Getting attention.

REWARD

Barrier to entry nonexistent.

CHALLENGE

Getting publicity.

REWARD

Publicity is nearly irrelevant and the means of spreading the word are at your fingertips.

CHALLENGE

Making money.

REWARD

Successful artists are making more money in adjusted dollars than they ever were, just not as much as bankers or techies. Furthermore, there are many avenues of revenue. Endorsements, merch, privates…and live pays better than ever before.

CHALLENGE

Only Top Forty counts/can make you go nuclear.

IMF Paris office targeted in suspected letter bomb attack

One person has been injured in a suspected letter bomb attack at the International Monetary Fund’s office in Paris.

A spokesperson for the police said an envelope sent to the building exploded and injured one person on Thursday. Several people were also evacuated from the building as a precaution.

It comes a day after an explosive package was found at the offices of Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. Berlin police said on Wednesday the package contained an “explosive mix” that was designed to cause “severe injuries”. A Greek militant group claimed responsibility for the parcel bomb.

I have been informed about the explosion in the IMF’s Paris office, which caused injuries to one of our staff.

I have been in touch with the office, and my compassion goes to the colleagues there. I condemn this cowardly act of violence and reaffirm the IMF’s resolve to continue our work in line with our mandate.

We are working closely with the French authorities to investigate this incident and ensure the safety of our staff.

France is already on high alert after a series of terror attacks in recent years, including the November 2015 assaults that left 130 people dead and a truck attack in Nice in July that killed more than 80 people.

Here’s one chart that could see the Fed pause on a hike today

It’s all about the wages

The fed hike case is built on a strong consumer led recovery. That’s good when people have money to spend, and when wages give them that money to spend. The wages (average hourly earnings) in the jobs reports report showed pay running at a decent 2.8% y/y. Today we get the inflation adjusted wage numbers in the CPI report and they don’t look as hot.

Last month, year on year real average weekly wages dropped for the first time since the start of 2014.

US real average weekly wages y/y

That’s not good news for the supposedly strong consumer and rate hikes won’t make the situation any better.

I’m quite surprised that the Fed will be raising so quickly after the Dec hike instead of letting that hike filter through, and monitoring the effects. To me that suggests that behind the scenes there’s something they are worried about. If they’re willing to hike in a moment when their whole basis for hikes (the consumer) might start finding things tougher, there’s something amiss.

It’s a straw clutch to try and find anything that could derail the hike tonight but there’s plenty of evidence in why they might throw in some additional caution about future hikes, and the wages numbers today may aid that sentiment.

How to trade the pound when Article 50 is triggered

Article 50 is coming. How to trade GBP when the headlines hit

Article 50 has hung like a anvil around the neck of the pound over the past eight months. The looming exit from the EU was an uncertainty and potential headline shock that stunted bounces in cable.

But as dismal as the bounces have been, there have been a series of higher lows since October. That’s often the sign that something is trying to carve out a bottom.

On top of that, UK data has been much better than economists assumed they would be after the vote.

It’s like the election of Donald Trump. It all has the feeling of something ominous but once it happens, the market can start to look ahead and see things a bit more constructively.

Two things make me believe that a short squeeze could be coming. One is the weekly CFTC positioning data. Obviously, it’s not a definitive picture of market positioning but it’s a good snapshot and shows a crowded short trade.

Second is the bump today. There’s no great reason for it. Scotland is making more waves about another referendum. I think it’s some of those shorts worried about a reversal after Article 50.

How to trade it