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Sat, 25th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “English-language films” Tag

Challenges/Rewards

CHALLENGE

Getting attention.

REWARD

Barrier to entry nonexistent.

CHALLENGE

Getting publicity.

REWARD

Publicity is nearly irrelevant and the means of spreading the word are at your fingertips.

CHALLENGE

Making money.

REWARD

Successful artists are making more money in adjusted dollars than they ever were, just not as much as bankers or techies. Furthermore, there are many avenues of revenue. Endorsements, merch, privates…and live pays better than ever before.

CHALLENGE

Only Top Forty counts/can make you go nuclear.

IMF Paris office targeted in suspected letter bomb attack

One person has been injured in a suspected letter bomb attack at the International Monetary Fund’s office in Paris.

A spokesperson for the police said an envelope sent to the building exploded and injured one person on Thursday. Several people were also evacuated from the building as a precaution.

It comes a day after an explosive package was found at the offices of Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. Berlin police said on Wednesday the package contained an “explosive mix” that was designed to cause “severe injuries”. A Greek militant group claimed responsibility for the parcel bomb.

I have been informed about the explosion in the IMF’s Paris office, which caused injuries to one of our staff.

I have been in touch with the office, and my compassion goes to the colleagues there. I condemn this cowardly act of violence and reaffirm the IMF’s resolve to continue our work in line with our mandate.

We are working closely with the French authorities to investigate this incident and ensure the safety of our staff.

France is already on high alert after a series of terror attacks in recent years, including the November 2015 assaults that left 130 people dead and a truck attack in Nice in July that killed more than 80 people.

Here’s one chart that could see the Fed pause on a hike today

It’s all about the wages

The fed hike case is built on a strong consumer led recovery. That’s good when people have money to spend, and when wages give them that money to spend. The wages (average hourly earnings) in the jobs reports report showed pay running at a decent 2.8% y/y. Today we get the inflation adjusted wage numbers in the CPI report and they don’t look as hot.

Last month, year on year real average weekly wages dropped for the first time since the start of 2014.

US real average weekly wages y/y

That’s not good news for the supposedly strong consumer and rate hikes won’t make the situation any better.

I’m quite surprised that the Fed will be raising so quickly after the Dec hike instead of letting that hike filter through, and monitoring the effects. To me that suggests that behind the scenes there’s something they are worried about. If they’re willing to hike in a moment when their whole basis for hikes (the consumer) might start finding things tougher, there’s something amiss.

It’s a straw clutch to try and find anything that could derail the hike tonight but there’s plenty of evidence in why they might throw in some additional caution about future hikes, and the wages numbers today may aid that sentiment.

How to trade the pound when Article 50 is triggered

Article 50 is coming. How to trade GBP when the headlines hit

Article 50 has hung like a anvil around the neck of the pound over the past eight months. The looming exit from the EU was an uncertainty and potential headline shock that stunted bounces in cable.

But as dismal as the bounces have been, there have been a series of higher lows since October. That’s often the sign that something is trying to carve out a bottom.

On top of that, UK data has been much better than economists assumed they would be after the vote.

It’s like the election of Donald Trump. It all has the feeling of something ominous but once it happens, the market can start to look ahead and see things a bit more constructively.

Two things make me believe that a short squeeze could be coming. One is the weekly CFTC positioning data. Obviously, it’s not a definitive picture of market positioning but it’s a good snapshot and shows a crowded short trade.

Second is the bump today. There’s no great reason for it. Scotland is making more waves about another referendum. I think it’s some of those shorts worried about a reversal after Article 50.

How to trade it

What’s priced in for the March 15 FOMC meeting and beyond

Fed hike odds near 100%

The odds of a March hike rose to 94% on Friday compared to 35% on Feb 23. A concerted, coordinated effort from the Fed to push up the probability was clear by the end of the week.

If she didn’t intend to stoke hike optimism, then she badly misplayed her hand. The newspaper headlines today were:

  • Set to Lift Interest Rate, Fed Embraces Investors’ Optimism – NYT
  • Yellen points to March rate hike as Fed signals end of easy money – Reuters
  • Yellen signals another Fed interest rate hike – PBS
  • Janet Yellen Indicates Federal Reserve’s Rate Rise Coming This Month – Forbes

What would it take for the Fed not to hike? How about a +50K non-farm payrolls report with weak wage growth. That would definitely make things interesting.

Barring something like that, the debate will shift to future meetings. At the moment, there’s a 10% chance priced in of a second hike on May 3. That rises to 45% by the June 14 meeting. Three hikes by year-end are about a 50/50 probability.

Amazon doubles down on Prime video push in India with Lionsgate deal

Amazon is doubling down on its bet to to grow its streaming business in India, announcing on Friday a long-term exclusive deal that will bring Lionsgate’s top films to its Prime video service in the country.

While the terms of the deal were not disclosed, the partnership with Lionsgate will bring Oscar winning films like La La Land and other titles like Deepwater Horizon to Indian viewers. Moreover, these movies will not be available on satellite or cable television.

Jeff Bezos’ ecommerce site is betting big on growth in India and first launched its video streaming service in the world’s second most populous country in December. It is also working on the production of an original Indian series. On its most recent earnings call, chief financial officer Brian Olsavsky said that India “continues to be a rather large investment for us” and “we’re bullish on India longer-term and it’s early”.

Tony Blair leaves door open to second referendum on EU membership

Former British prime minister Tony Blair has hinted at his support to have a second referendum if a “significant part” of those who voted for Brexit change their mind.

Speaking to launch his campaign to “persuade” people not to leave the EU, Mr Blair said:

If a significant part of that 52 per cent show real change of mind, however you measure it, we should have the opportunity to reconsider the decision.

Whether you do it through another referendum, or another method, that’s a second order question.

The former leader of the Labour party also invoked the “propensity for revolt” seen across the developed to call on pro-EU supporters to convince people who “voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit”.

Mr Blair said he wanted to “strengthen the hand of the MPs who are with us and let those against know they have serious opposition to Brexit At Any Cost”, adding:

This is not the time for retreat, indifference or despair; but the time to rise up in defence of what we believe – calmly, patiently, winning the argument by the force of argument; but without fear and with the conviction we act in the true interests of Britain.

Dollar Extends Longest Winning Streak Since 2012 As March Rate Hike Odds Surge

Following this morning’s soaring inflationary and retail sales data, and following Yellen’s hawkish tone yesterday, March rate-hike odds have soared from below 25% to over 40%. The Dollar Index is extending its recent winning streak on this move – now up 11 days in a row, the longest streak since May 2012.

Rate hike odds are ripping higher as The Fed gets its way of pricing in a March rate hike…

And The Dollar Index continues to rise…

This is the longest USD win streak since May 2012.

  • July 1975 – 11 days in a row
  • Sept 1975 – 11 days in a row
  • May 2012 – 14 days in a row
  • Feb 2017 – 11 days in a row

And notably, if extends to 12 days tomorrow, will be the second longest winning streak in dollar history.

The “March” of the Yellen starts today

Yellen starts her two day appearance in front of the government

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. There’s really only going to be one thing the market is going to hang on for when Yellen starts speaking, and that’s whether March is going to feature as a hike possibility.

We’ve almost got a repeat situation to last year where we had a Dec hike accompanied by FOMC members proclaiming multiple hikes throughout the year. We all know what we got then and I suspect we’ll get the same now.

The market is looking at the summer for the next likely hike but it will be on guard to change that if Yellen gives them cause to do so, so any green light for a March hike will see the buck pop higher.