Sat, 25th February 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “English-language films” Tag

Tony Blair leaves door open to second referendum on EU membership

Former British prime minister Tony Blair has hinted at his support to have a second referendum if a “significant part” of those who voted for Brexit change their mind.

Speaking to launch his campaign to “persuade” people not to leave the EU, Mr Blair said:

If a significant part of that 52 per cent show real change of mind, however you measure it, we should have the opportunity to reconsider the decision.

Whether you do it through another referendum, or another method, that’s a second order question.

The former leader of the Labour party also invoked the “propensity for revolt” seen across the developed to call on pro-EU supporters to convince people who “voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit”.

Mr Blair said he wanted to “strengthen the hand of the MPs who are with us and let those against know they have serious opposition to Brexit At Any Cost”, adding:

This is not the time for retreat, indifference or despair; but the time to rise up in defence of what we believe – calmly, patiently, winning the argument by the force of argument; but without fear and with the conviction we act in the true interests of Britain.

Dollar Extends Longest Winning Streak Since 2012 As March Rate Hike Odds Surge

Following this morning’s soaring inflationary and retail sales data, and following Yellen’s hawkish tone yesterday, March rate-hike odds have soared from below 25% to over 40%. The Dollar Index is extending its recent winning streak on this move – now up 11 days in a row, the longest streak since May 2012.

Rate hike odds are ripping higher as The Fed gets its way of pricing in a March rate hike…

And The Dollar Index continues to rise…

This is the longest USD win streak since May 2012.

  • July 1975 – 11 days in a row
  • Sept 1975 – 11 days in a row
  • May 2012 – 14 days in a row
  • Feb 2017 – 11 days in a row

And notably, if extends to 12 days tomorrow, will be the second longest winning streak in dollar history.

The “March” of the Yellen starts today

Yellen starts her two day appearance in front of the government

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. There’s really only going to be one thing the market is going to hang on for when Yellen starts speaking, and that’s whether March is going to feature as a hike possibility.

We’ve almost got a repeat situation to last year where we had a Dec hike accompanied by FOMC members proclaiming multiple hikes throughout the year. We all know what we got then and I suspect we’ll get the same now.

The market is looking at the summer for the next likely hike but it will be on guard to change that if Yellen gives them cause to do so, so any green light for a March hike will see the buck pop higher.

Theresa May’s speech touted for 11.45 GMT tomorrow

There’s been lots of people asking about the time of May’s speech tomorrow

Livesquawk have just said that there’s a touted time of 11.45 GMT for this big speech of hers. That’s come from CNBC they say, so not taken for granted.

There’s a lot of furore about what she will say in this speech so perhaps the market is getting a little ahead of itself.

The speech itself is to an audience of diplomats in London so her comments might not be as detailed as the market expects. They certainly shouldn’t be more detailed than what she would say to parliament, and might even be a repeat of what she’s said previously.

It’s being built up into something big but it has all the potential of not delivering. That would be bad in the market’s eyes but potentially good for the pound, even though still not hearing about her plans is bad, which is bad for the pound but might be read as good. It’s all a mucking fuddle if you ask me.

Livesquawk have been bugging No.10 for a definitive time for the speech but they aren’t playing ball, so we’ll have to be on our toes.

Brazil slashes rates by 75bps to 13% in surprise move

Don’t anyone accuse Brazil’s central bank of not being bold.

In a unanimous decision, the bank cut its policy interest rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, exceeding the consensus call for a 50bps cut and sharply picking up the pace on an easing cycle it began with two back-to-back cuts of 25bps each in October and November

In a statement, the bank said economic activity had fallen below expectations and that a recovery would take longer than previously anticipated.

The size of the cut will be welcomed by many, given the economy’s stubborn refusal to return to growth. The rebound expected by many when congress ditched president Dilma Rousseff last year has failed to happen. GDP contracted by 8 per cent over the past two years under Rousseff’s watch; her pro-growth, market-friendly successor, Michel Temer, was expected to turn things round quickly.

Displeased Swamy urges Prime Minister to remove Shaktikanta Das from SEBI selection list

Subramanian Swamy showed total disagreement after media reports claiming Shaktikanta Das as one of the candidates for the new SEBI Chief surfaced.

Swamy called him ‘corrupt’ and ‘Chidambaram’s confidant’ he urged the Prime Minister to remove his name from the SEBI selection panel.

A letter of CBI Director has been produced by Swamy to Shaktikanta Das due to excessive delay in the Aircel-Maxis scam probe mainly because of the non cooperation from Finance Ministry.
Swamy accused Shaktikanta of acting according to Chidambaram and misusing his power to destroy evidence against the former Finance Minister.

In the letter to the Prime Minister, Swamy has stated the following:

*Das was supposed to retire from service in February. His first posting in the state of Tamil Nadu had his alleged involvement in several corruption cases including  land allotment to foreign collaboration agreement.

Long-Term Crude Supplies Abroad Not to Drop After Oil Production Cut Deal

In November, OPEC agreed to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day to 32.5 million barrels per day for the whole cartel from next year.

“Intergovernmental agreements will be fully implemented, since cuts are slight and companies will be able to compensate via other activities,” Novak told journalists. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich added that the deal would not affect oil supplies on the domestic market and stressed that companies would supply as much oil as was demanded, without any substantial rise in prices. On December 10, OPEC finished a meeting with non-OPEC countries in Vienna, at which non-OPEC countries decided to cut oil output by 558,000 barrels per day, with Russia cutting the output by 300,000 barrels per day from January 2017.

Syrian Gov’t Forces Fully Control Over 95% of Aleppo’s Territory

Syrian Army servicemen in Aleppo.Over 95 percent of Aleppo’s territory are under Syrian government forces control, the Russian Center for Syrian Reconciliation Reconciliation stated Monday.

“Over the past 24 hours, the Syrian armed forces have liberated three quarters of the eastern part of Aleppo. Thus, over 95 percent of the territory of Aleppo is under government control. The total area of the part of the city’s east where the insurgents remain is no more than 10 square kilometers,” the statement said. Earlier it was reported that more than 13,000 civilians were evacuated of militant-controlled regions of Syria’s Aleppo in 24 hours. “In 24 hours, 13,346 civilians including 5,831 children were evacuated in 24 hours with support of the Russian reconciliation center from regions of Aleppo which remain under militant control,” the center said in a statement. According to the statement, 728 militants have surrendered and left eastern Aleppo. The Russian servicemen have also de-mined 7 hectares (17.3 acres) of the territory of eastern Aleppo, including a mosque, a school, a primary school and roads.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 2 points.Nasdaq closed sharply down -56 points

The Dow Jones industrial average ended up fractionally Wednesday after a big jump in oil prices on word of an OPEC oil deal.

Tech stocks took a hit as the major indexes ended mostly lower to cap a wild month.

The Dow lost considerable steam, ending up a mere 2 points and about 29 shy of its record closing high of 19,152.14. Earlier in the day, it and the S&P 500 topped their closing records, both set Friday, before scaling back. The S&P 500 wound up in negative territory, down 0.3%

Losing more altitude is the Nasdaq composite, which fell 1.1%.

The price of benchmark U.S. crude jumped as much as 9%m ending about a dime over $49 a barrel after OPEC countries moved toward finalizing a deal to reduce production.

Among energy companies, Devon Energy (DVN) jumped 14.6%, the biggest gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index.