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Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “european integration” Tag

Le Pen to Hold Referendum on French EU Exit in First Half of 2018 if Elected

Image result for Le PenThe first round of the French presidential elections is scheduled for this Sunday, while the run-off is set for May 7.

“Marine Le Pen said that she wanted an exit of the European Union organized with our European partners and that this departure would be sanctioned by a referendum. [Which will be held] undoubtedly in the first half of 2018,” David Rachline said.

According to Le Pen’s campaign manager, she also wants to “drastically change economic policy, while putting an end to increasing financialization and globalization of the economy.”

“We were warned of a catastrophe with the Brexit vote, the facts, however, disagree with those merchants of fear who in reality do not want us to touch this system, which grants them numerous advantages!” Rachline pointed out.

The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union and the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election in 2016 were seen as big victories for the anti-establishment and anti-globalist movement. Le Pen’s approach seems in sync with the growing anti-globalism trend.

European Banks Risk Facing a ‘Collapse Worse Than the 2008 Financial Crisis’

In a recent report, experts of the Amsterdam-based Transnational Institute think-tank revealed that in 2008-2015, European Union member states spent €747 billion ($792 billion) on different bailout packages for banks.

Moreover, as for October 2016, some €213 billion ($226 billion) of taxpayers’ money — “equivalent to the GDP of Finland and Luxembourg” — was lost as a result of such rescue packages.

The authors of the reports also pointed out that the Big Four audit companies (EY, Deloitte, KPMG and PWC) engaged in designing the most important bailout packages were responsible for losses.

“In cases where the bailout consultants gave poor or inaccurate advice on the allocation of state aid there have been few consequences, even when state losses actually increased as a result. Bailout consultants have often been rewarded with new contracts despite their repeated failures,” the report read.

“The firms responsible for assuring investors and regulators that EU banks were stable, the Big Four audit firms, maintain their market dominance despite grave failures in their assessment of the EU banking sector’s lending risks,” it added. Read More 

French PM: “Europe Is In Danger Of Falling Apart”

Ignoring years of stagnation, economic deterioration, and an unprecedented unemployment rate, which remains stubbornly in the double-digits for countries like Greece, Spain and Italy, Europe appears to have finally woken up, shocked by the reality of Brexit and the Trump election, and has started with the fire and brimstone warnings. Case in point: French prime minister Manuel Valls, who speaking in Berlin, said that the European Union is in danger of breaking apart unless France and Germany, in particular, work harder to stimulate growth and employment and heed citizens’ concerns.

“Europe is in danger of falling apart,” Valls said at an event organized by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. “So Germany and France have a huge responsibility.”

Translation: confirming what we have said for years, the ECB did nothing for the economy while propping up markets, refuting the long-running official narrative, and now it is time to actually focus on the people, ideally by launching a massive fiscal spending stimulus.


French Prime Minister Manuel Valls

Britain can’t get full single market access with free movement concessions – Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Saturday that Britain could not get concessions on the freedom of movement while retaining full access to the European single market, or other countries would want the same.

Britain, which is leaving the European Union, faces the challenge of securing a new trading deal with the EU while also giving London more control over migration from the bloc, potentially falling foul of the EU’s freedom of movement principle that is key for accessing its single market.

“If I start making concessions on the freedom of movement, then another country will tomorrow come and say: ‘I don’t want so many Bulgarians and Romanian workers either’,” Merkel told a conference of the youth wing of her Christian Democrats (CDU).

“And then a third country will come and then the extreme forces from Europe will come and then we’ll soon all be closing our borders again and not having any freedom at all and then that’s no longer Europe,” she added.

Article 50 “Perfectly Timed” For Turmoil

Labour spin doctor, Alastair Campbell Slammed the Prime Minister for Revealing the Article 50 Timing. Others have done the same.

Timing of the article 50 announcement, by March 2017, is ahead of French and German elections. Politicians will have elections, not Brexit on their minds.

Many blame Theresa May because it will take time off the negotiations.

Politically speaking, May knows precisely what she is doing.

hose who think otherwise, need to consider how well she has rounded up support in many quarters by offering something to everyone: UK Prime Minister Attacks QE, Irresponsible Capitalism, Tax-Dodging Companies.

The date was carefully timed, precisely to put pressure on Angela Merkel by German car manufacturers (European car manufacturers and businesses in general), telling Merkel to go easy.

Greek PM Says EU ‘sleepwalking toward cliff’

Greece said on Sunday the EU was “sleepwalking towards a cliff” by sticking to austerity rules that created huge inequalities among members, and it expected a debt relief deal for itself to be honored by end-2016 so that its economy could recover.

Athens, facing a second bailout review entailing an unpopular loosening of labor laws in the autumn, is keen to show that painful tax rises and pension cuts as part of its 86-billion-euro bailout deal last year will bear fruit.

“Greece has kept its part of the agreement and expects the same from its partners. We are not simply seeking, we are demanding and expecting specific measures that will render debt sustainable as part of the deal we are implementing,” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told the Sunday newspaper Realnews.

“This (debt relief) will be followed by reduced (budget) surpluses after 2018, which will open the way for the economy’s recovery,” he said.

Greece has committed to attaining a primary budget surplus – excluding debt-servicing costs – of 3.5 percent of economic output by 2018 as part of its third bailout package since 2010.

The IMF, which has yet to decide whether it will fund the third bailout, has said that surplus targets of 3.5 percent beyond 2018 are not realistic for Greece and has pushed for softer fiscal goals to take part in the financing.

Greece’s leftist-led government and the central bank also want lower primary surplus targets, arguing this will give Athens room to cut taxes and help the battered economy return to growth after a protracted recession.

The economy has shrunk by a quarter in six years and the jobless rate is 23.5 percent.

IMF -Global growth could fall to 2.8% in 2016

Cut global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.2%. 2017 at 3.4% down -0.1% from previous.

The IMF says reduction in outlook due to uncertainty, reduced investment caused by Britain’s departure from the European Union.
  • Cuts 2016 UK growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.9% in April. They see 2017 growth at 1.3% from 2.2% in April
  • IMF says would’ve revised 2017 global growth forecast slightly upward if not for Brexit
  • IMF says Japangrowth forecast cut to 0.3% from 0.5%. Improves 2017 at what to 0.1% from a -0.1% contraction
  • raises China 2016 growth forecasts to 6.6% from 6.5%. Sees 2017 growth slowing to 6.2%
  • Global growth could fall to 2.8% in 2016 and 2017 under its severe alternative scenario of UK – EU divorce negotiations going badly, financial stress intensifying
World economic outlook (% change in GDP YoY)
  • US: 2.2 in 2016  and 2.5% in 2017
  • EU 1.6% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017
  • Japan 0.3% in 2016 adn 0.1% in 2017
  • UK 1.7 in 2016 and 1.3% in 2017
  • CHina 6.6% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017

1st Brexit Poll After Jo Cox Death Reveals Stunning Result

Before the assassination of British MP Jo Cox, the “Leave” campaign had been surging in recent polls…

This was before The IMF unleashed their own version of “we are all doomed” and before Ms. Cox was murdered.

The sad death of pro-EU British MP Jo Cox prompted a buying spree in Sterling that carried on through today as hope sprung eternal that her assassination (and the efforts to politicize the actions of a mad man) would lead to either a delayed vote or sympathetic pro-EU “Remain” swing. JPMorgan hinted before the close that was not the case and now, as USA Today reports, the first post-Cox poll reveals a shocking swing in “Remain” voters

Labour’s Left Teaming Up With Varoufakis to Keep UK in Europe

On Saturday, in a day-long event at the UCL Institute of Education in London, Varoufakis, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, Labour MP Clive Lewis and the leadership of grassroots pro-Jeremy Corbyn movement Momentum spoke in favor of staying and changing the EU from within.

Together with other politicians, activists and organizations, they united under the aegis of pro-stay group Another Europe is Possible, just days after a cross-party parliamentary committee accused both official campaigns — pro-Brexit Vote Leave and pro-remain Stronger In— of misleading voters.

“Both the Remain and the Leave official campaigns are infantilising voters, showing statistics that are not worth the paper they are printed on, and polarizing voters,” Varoufakis said in his speech.

Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis
Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis

Schäuble keeps quiet on mounting cost to Germany of Europe’s woes

Spare a thought for Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s 70-year-old finance minister. A politician of unparalleled experience in Angela Merkel’s centre-right government, he carries the flag for those who hold that the eurozone’s travails will be, in the long run, an opportunity to advance European integration.

Yet two government crises in the space of a month, the first in Greece and the second in Portugal, underline how his vision risks being buried under mountains of unrepaid southern European debt. Bruised and battered, the ruling coalitions in Athens and Lisbon limp on, scarcely more confident than the societies they govern that obedience to German-inspired policy prescriptions will save their countries.

 When Mr Schäuble visited Athens last week, the leftist Greek newspaper Avgi welcomed him with the abrasive headline: “Hail Schäuble! We who are about to die salute you.”

Behind the scorn and despair of this rhetorical flourish lies the smouldering conviction of millions of Greeks that, although their own rulers bear the original responsibility for six years of economic recession and mass unemployment, Germany has made matters worse. Read More