Posts Tagged: futures contract

 

1.  There was a marked increase of significant changes in the speculative positioning in the currency futures (10k contract of greater adjustment in gross positions).  It was the most active week this year. There were six such adjustments.  The gross short euro position jumped 21k contracts to a record 271.1k.  Both bulls and bears cut sterling positions aggressively.  The gross long position was cut by 11.2k contracts to 35.9k.  The gross short position was cut by 10.5k contracts to 74.5k.  A similar pattern was evident in the Australian dollar.  The gross long position was cut by 11k contracts to 52.1k, and the gross shorts were reduced by 11.4k contracts, leaving 80.4k.  Lastly, the next long Mexican peso position rose by almost 50% to 35k contracts.

  1.   The clear pattern was that speculators took advantage of the counter-trend moves to take profits or cut longs.  The gross long positions were cut across the board, with the Mexican peso the lone exception.
  1.   There were some interesting trend moves.  The net short euro position has increased for three consecutive weeks after falling for four weeks.  It was the fourth week that the net short sterling position has grown.  At 38.6k contracts, it is more than twice the size at the end of last year.  The net short yen position of 45.9k contracts is half of where it stood at the end of the 2014.  This has been largely a function of shorts covering.  The gross short position has fallen by 40k contracts in Q1, while the gross long position has risen by 10k contracts.  
  1.   The speculative net short 10-year Treasury futures position increased to 180k contracts from 108k. The long were cut by nearly 10% to 350.4k contracts.  The shorts rose 32k contracts to 530.2k.  This year the gross long has risen by about 70k contracts while the gross short position has slipped 13k contracts.

5.  Speculators cut their net long light crude oil futures position by 36.6k contracts to 206.9k.  The gross longs were trimmed by 3.4k contracts to 513.6k.  The gross short position rose 33.2k contracts to 306.7k.

Commitment of Traders

week ending Mar 24              
               (speculative position in 000′s of contracts)
Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro-221.0-194.050.1-6.2271.021.0
Yen-45.9-48.139.2-5.385.1-7.5
Sterling-38.6-37.935.9-11.274.5-10.5
Swiss Franc-4.02.212.6-5.516.60.6
C$-32.7-32.819.2-1.851.8-1.9
A$-28.4-28.852.1-11.080.4-11.4
Mexican Peso-41.1-55.935.011.376.1-3.5

 

 

The prospect of a return to $100-a-barrel crude is tempting some to bet against the bearish consensus in the oil market.

One or more traders have resumed buying call options that pay out if benchmark US crude futures surpass $100 by the end of 2018. Call options give holders the right to buy oil at a set price by a certain date.

Open interest in these options has risen to the equivalent of 2.7m barrels, nearly trebling from the start of the month.

The bullish positions run counter to the downbeat sentiment that pervades the oil market. Despite cutbacks in drilling, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for December 2018 delivery was $64.25 a barrel on Wednesday. This specific futures contract last traded above $100 a barrel in mid-2011, while spot US crude oil was at that level last July.

Money managers last week had the biggest gross “short”, or bearish, position on record in WTI, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reveal. Analysts’ median forecast for oil in 2018 is $75 a barrel, according to a Bloomberg survey. >> Read More

Must Read Quotes For Traders

20 March 2015 - 13:51 pm
 

“Good investing is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake.“-Michael Steinhardt

Do not stay bullish or bearish. Go with the current flow of the market. Be on the team that is making the money.

“There is only one side of the market and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.” -Jesse Livermore

When putting it all together, it is more than just numbers. Successful traders trade in three dimensions.

“Successful trading depends on the 3M`s – Mind, Method and Money. Beginners focus on analysis, but professionals operate in a three dimensional space. They are aware of trading psychology their own feelings and the mass psychology of the markets. Each trader needs to have a method for choosing specific stocks, options or futures as well as firm rules for pulling the trigger – deciding when to buy and sell. Money refers to how you manage your trading capital.” – Alexander Elder

The money is in the primary market trend, not jumping in and out.

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.” – Jesse Livermore >> Read More

 

TRENDD-1203

Resiliency does not mean that you jump into subsequent trades after you sustain losing ones. Rather, the resilient trader is one who can sustain well-being even after normal, expectable losing trades. When you lack resilience, you become backward-looking and respond to the last trade rather than the next market development. The resilient trader remains proactive, even in the face of loss. A resilient trader might thus stop trading or resume trading following a loss; it’s the following of basic, time-tested plans and strategies—and not impulsively running toward or away from risk—that defines authentic resilience. 

ENJOYEDBLAST

Yesterday Enjoyed Blast in CESC ,EXIDE ,M&M 

J-D

Yes ,Tons of Money Minted by Trend Followers :As Expected it was BLOODBATH in single session !!

Below 1157 ,3 Consecutive close our Target of 988-932 intact !

Today-3rdnov

IGL-MARCH

GRABANDFORGET

Above 437 level ,No worry @ all.

All Eyes on 441…………..Crossover WITH VOLUMES & STAYS above for 5-10 minutes

Watch Blast upto 448———————453———————458 level in minutes

Yes ,Laxman Rekha @ 458.Crossover and close will take to 471-475 level very soon

Mano ya Na Mano

Stock Will cross 490 First ,Forget 420………………….!

-Buy 455—460 Call and Relax

Watch price in last 30 minutes for this stock.

gail18

Dead Cat Bounce on card.

Above 390.50 level if trades ,We see Rally upto 398————–400.50 & Then ?????

Hold for 24 hrs & see what happens ?

ZEE-SELL

Stock will Kiss 354.25 level.Crossover with volumes and stays above for 10 minutes

Watch EXPLOSION upto 360—————–362 level in hrs only.

(Don’t panic ,Now  )

TATASTEEL-6thoct

More PAIN LEFT 

We see PANIC upto 292——————-268 level very soon 

On Rise ,Sell Sell !!!

sun-set

All Eyes on 997 level…………..Nothing else !

Decisive Break with volumes and stays below :We see PANIC upto 960—948 level in hrs only.

GLENMARK

Break Below 837 with volumes and stays for 15 minutes and not crossing 843 level then ?

Watch PANIC upto 818—————-812———————-793 level very soon

101% More Stocks ,More News  to our Subscribers

Updated at 8:54/12th March/Baroda

 

On Sunday, we noted that the economics of the floating storage play could spell further declines for crude prices. With a global stock increase that’s some 3 times larger than that which occurred during the last period of oversupply, expect cheap, on-land storage to prove inadequate necessitating the use of VLCCs. According to Soc Gen, determining how far the front end of the curve would have to fall in order for traders to arbitrage the difference between buying and storing physical oil and selling paper forward is a good indicator for where prices may find a floor:  

…the bank is looking for the front end of the curve to fall until the contango is wide enough to make the floating storage play enticing. 

 

The example Soc Gen uses shows that Brent needs to see ~$49 before the trade is sufficiently profitable. 

The takeaway, we noted, is that storage availability and contango should be taken into account when considering the future direction of oil prices. With production still climbing despite the decline in rig count, it seems supply may, in short order, outstrip storage capacity for as the following two charts show, crude storage capacity in the US is now at 60% and is set to be completely exhausted by June: 

  >> Read More

 

Want to know where oil prices are headed? You need to understand the economics of the floating storage play, Soc Gen says. 

As we noted on Friday, retail investors looking to be the next Jed Clampett have piled into the U.S. Oil fund over the past several months, presumably unaware of the extreme contango in the market. That said, it’s not just retail investors who are itching to dive in. Here’s Soc Gen:  

The motivation to buy it [is] widespread and not always based on traditional market analysis – consumers [are] keen to lock in lower prices with their newly expanded credit lines, due to the decline in the notional value of their existing hedges. Endowments and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) [are] under pressure to use the “opportunity” to claw back recent losses. 

For those looking to make a play near the bottom, it’s worth considering the level at which the oil storage trade becomes profitable. At its core, the trade is simple:  >> Read More

 

1.  It was another week of relative minor position adjustments.  There were only two gross speculative positions that changed by more than 7k contracts.  The gross short yen position grew by 7.3k contracts to 86.5k, and the gross short peso position fell by 7.6k contracts to 74.8k.

2. While these small positions speak to the general consolidation being seen in the spot market, two net position adjustments suggest that in the reporting period that ended March 3, speculators began anticipating the resumption of the underlying trends.  The six week streak during which speculators reduced the net short yen position ended with a 10% increase to 52.5k contracts.  The net short sterling position had fallen for five weeks through the end of February.  It snapped during the latest reporting period with a 20% increase in the net short position to almost 27k contracts.

3. While the gross short euro position of nearly 221k contracts is by far the largest position and near historical extreme, the gross long position of 48.5k contracts is also the largest among the currency futures we track.  The nearly 3 cent decline following the ECB meeting and US employment data likely saw many of the longs capitulate.

4.  The net short 10-year Treasury note futures grew by 19k contracts to 129k.  The gross long position was trimmed by 6.5k contracts to 353.6k.  The gross short position grew by 23.3k contracts ahead of the sharp sell-off after the jobs data to 493.1k contracts.

  1.   The net speculative short light sweet crude oil futures position was trimmed by 6.9k contracts to 262.3k.  Bottom picker were still seen with a 7k contracts increase that lifted the gross long position to 498k contracts.  The bears, eager to sell into upticks, added 14.6k contracts to their gross short position, giving them 235.6k contracts.
week ending Mar 3     Commitment of Traders
               (speculative position in 000′s of contracts)
Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro-172.0-178.048.53.0220.9-2.4
Yen-52.5-47.533.92.386.57.3
Sterling-26.9-21.944.6-2.271.52.9
Swiss Franc-6.1-5.17.01.813.12.8
C$-38.9-36.224.31.963.24.5
A$-61.5-63.213.7-1.975.2-3.6
Mexican Peso43.4-48.331.4-2.774.8-7.6

Trading Should Be Effortless

07 March 2015 - 20:54 pm
 
  • Money comes in bunches.

That one says it all. You can’t force trades. You can’t simply work harder in order to be ‘in sync’. Sometimes you are, sometimes you are not. You simply have to accept that as being part of the trading business. What you can do, is to closely monitor if your performance is in sync with the market’s performance. If the markets make new highs and your overall portfolio is going down something is wrong. You need to address that issue. Fast. The best way is to step aside and drastically reduce exposure and risk. That’s what I did.

  • Trading should be effortless.

A true piece of wisdom. In my experience when I trade well it is like shooting fish in a barrel. Almost everything works. I don’t need to be overly patient with positions. The money comes in very fast. That’s exactly how trading should be. The exact opposite was the case during the first 2 months of this year. So I did what I had to do. I recognized the situation for what it was and admitted my efforts were not leading my portfolio anywhere. It was like folding when you are dealt a bad hand in poker. So I folded. Now I am waiting for the next hand. If it is a bad one I fold again. If a series of trades start to really go my way I push it hard and increase exposure and trade aggressively. >> Read More

 

1.  For the second consecutive week, there were no significant position adjustments among speculators in the currency futures, which we define as a shift of at least 10k contracts in the gross position.  The gross short euro position was the closest at 9.5k contracts were covered, leaving 223.2k open.  The gross short euro position has fallen by about 21k contracts this month as the downside momentum faded.

2.  To the extent that there was an overall pattern, speculators reduced gross short positions in the majors and added to them in the dollar-bloc and peso. Gross long positions were mostly added to, with the exception of the euro and the Australian dollar, both of which fell by less than 2k contracts. This is consistent with the consolidative tone seen in the spot market.

  1.    Although the week to week gross position adjustments in February has been modest, the adjustment have trended.  This was the third week that the net short euro position has fallen.  It has been driven more by short covering that bottom picking.  The net short yen position has been reduced for six consecutive weeks.  At -47.5k,  it is half of the size it was at the start of the year.  The net short sterling position extended its falling streak to five weeks.  It has been halved since the end of January to 21.9k contracts.
  1.   The net short 10-year Treasury futures position swelled to 110k from 67.2k contracts.  However, the gross short position hardly changed.  It slipped by 500 contracts to 469.8k.  What happened was the longs jumped out:   The gross long position fell 43k contracts to 360k.
  1.   The net long speculative light sweet oil futures position fell by nearly 10% to 270k contracts.  The bulls and bears saw things they liked.  The bulls added 12.2k long contracts to give them almost 491k.  The bears added 41.7k short contracts giving them 221k.

>> Read More

 
  1.   Activity increased in the past week, but there was still no gross position adjustment of more than 10k contracts.  The gross short euro position came the closest with a decline of 9.1k contracts (to 232.8k).  Four of the remaining 11 gross positions changed by less than a thousand contracts.  

2.  There was a clear pattern in the position adjustments.  Shorts were reduced in all the currencies we track except for the Australian dollar.  Longs were mostly added to, with the exception of the gross long euro position that was unchanged and the small (1.0-1.2k) reduction in the gross long Swiss franc and Canadian dollar positions respectively.

  1.   The net short Treasury position increased to 67.2k from 44.8k.  This was mostly the result of an 18.7k increase in the gross short position (to 4703.k contracts).  The gross long position slipped 3.6k contracts (to 403.1k). 

4.  Many people will see the 27.8k increase in the speculative net long NYMEX oil futures and conclude that the market is bullish.  However, the net increase did not reflect an increase in the gross long position, which was shaved by a couple hundred contracts. Instead, it was shorts, taking profits or being squeezed out, that were reduced. The gross short position fell 28.1k contracts; leaving 179.4k.  

week ending Feb 17              Commitment of Traders
               (speculative position in 000′s of contracts)
Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro-186.0-195.047.20.0232.0-9.1
Yen-49.1-55.131.35.480.4-0.6
Sterling-28.8-38.643.06.271.8-3.6
Swiss Franc-6.0-5.54.7-1.010.8-0.5
C$-32.8-33.320.0-1.252.8-1.7
A$-53.8-53.217.24.771.15.4
Mexican Peso-45.4-49.228.93.274.3-0.6

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.