Posts Tagged: futures contract

 

NF-LOGOThere’s an old saying on Wall Street that “pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.”

Greed in investors leads them to hang on to winning positions too long, trying to extract every last tick. This trait can be devastating to returns because the trader is always running the risk of getting whipsawed or blown out of a position.

But greed is not easy to overcome.

That’s because within many of us there is an instinct to always try to do better, to try to get just a little more. A trader should recognize this instinct if they have it, and develop trade plans based upon rational business decisions, not on what amounts to an emotional whim or potentially harmful instinct.

Money management is the key to trading survival. You can get almost everything else in the planning process wrong, but if the money management aspect is right you will survive.Conversely, if every other aspect of the trading plan is perfect, you will fail if money management is incorrect. Without money management all of the wins, big and small, can be destroyed in just a few losing trades.

wednesday-Last Close : 6753.95

YESTERDAY WRITTEN-

Short Term Support at 6779—————————6769 level. Once Breaks with volumes and sustains below will create PANIC upto  6738-6728 level.

It Kissed low of 6735 & closed at 6753.95

Trade with Eyes Open -During Trading Hrs :Avoid TV ,Music ,Film ,Cricket ,Rumours ,Results ,Fundamentals & Economic +Political News !!

Now -What to expect

No Need to  Change levels ,Today Just Watch  6728 level.

If Breaks with volumes and sustains for 15-20 minutes ,PANIC upto 6697-6687 is possible

6650-6600

Inverse Head & Shoulder :NECKLINE at  6650-6600 level (Yes if slides to this level ……………….Really Great Buying Opportunity )

Today’s Hurdle at 6766—————-6774 level.

Crossover with volumes will create Buying ,Will Update More to our Subscribers

MANTRAJAAP

OUR MANTRA

Between 6700————6650————–6600 level (In Panic ,Buy Nifty Future )

Buy 7000-7200-7500 -May Call !We are Still Holding June 7000 Call Bought at 110 & U know it zoomed to ??

Just Need Patience Upto 16th May only

Now Result Season had Started :We are again writing…………..Don’t believe numbers (Already Insiders ,CC people ,Mutual Fund ,Fiis knows the number and they make position 5-10-15 days back only )

This Time U all Watch ………..How Media Manipulates Stocks During Trading hrs (Check out Volumes of Stock )Before and After Result on TV Screen !!Nobody will ask and Nobody will Question !!

LINKS -READ

http://wp.me/p2LGka-Jzk

Yes ,Our Short Term Targets are Intact……….Click above Link !

Everything Already Decided …………Who will become FM ,What are the Policies ………….Once BJP will come to Power

And All Things are Known to Few CORPORATE Houses and 101% Everything will be Controlled by Mumbai only

More Will Update to our Subscribers ,

Updated at 7:54/16th April/Baroda/India

 

1.  The net speculative Australian dollar futures position swung to the long side (3k contracts from -5k) for the first time since last May.  As recently as early February, speculators had a gross short position of 80k contracts.  It has been more than halved to a little more than 34k contracts.  The gross long position bottomed a month ago around 9k contracts.  It is now almost 38k contracts. 

2.  There were four gross position changes that are significant (more than 10k contracts).  The gross short yen positions was shaved by 10k contracts to 101k.  The net position did not change much as 9k longs also moved to the sidelines.  The gross long sterling position jumped almost 16k to 92k contracts.  This is a new 7-year high.  The Mexican peso accounted for the other two significant gross position adjusted.  Gross longs surged 21k contracts to 70.k.  Shorts were halved to about 14k contracts.

3.   It is interesting to think about the positioning a year ago.  Then the net speculative position was short the European currency futures.  Now it is long.  It has been about a 74k contract swing to create the net long 23k contracts has now.  For sterling it was more than 116k contract swing to produce the net long 47k it has now.  The net speculative yen position at -88k contracts is about 10k more shorts than it was a year ago. Speculators are net short half as many Canadian dollar futures as the 71k contracts that they had a year ago. At 3.3k contracts, the net long Australian dollar position is a sliver of last year’s 78k contracts. Even though the net long peso position of 57k contracts is the largest among the currency futures, is a little more than third of the size of it year ago position (143k contracts). 

4.  The gross long euro position fell by 10% to 92.6k contracts, which is the largest gross long position among the currency futures.  It just edged out sterling with its 91.6k contracts.  The yen’s gross short position of 101k contracts is easily the largest.  Next is the gross short euro position of 69k contracts. 

week ending Apr 8              Commitment of Traders
  (spec position in 000′s of contracts) 
 Net Prior Gross LongChangeGross Short Change
Euro23.333.292.6-9.269.30.7
Yen-87.5-88.613.3-8.8100.8-10.0
Sterling46.433.691.615.745.22.8
Swiss Franc11.314.219.3-5.57.9-2.6
C$-34.3-37.028.71.163.0-1.5
A$3.3-4.937.62.234.3-6.0
Mexican Peso56.521.870.420.513.9-14.3

15 Ways to Manage Trader Stress

11 April 2014 - 15:58 pm
 

  1. Only risk 1% of total trading capital per trade with stop losses and proper position sizing. Proper positions sizing makes the emotional impact of any one trade only one of the next one hundred a totally different mental perspective than an all in/have to be right Hail Mary trade.

  2. Only trade a  position size you are comfortable with.
  3. Trade a method or system you believe in based on back testing of a positive expectancy.
  4. Know where you will get out of a trade before you get in.
  5. Only trade with a detailed trading plan.
  6. Believe in your ability to follow your trading plan. YOu must have faith in yourself to lower your stress levels.
  7. Know yourself as a trader and only take your kind of trades. Take trades that will leave no regrets because they were good trades regardless of out comes. >> Read More
 

Nikkei 225

 

  • +0.43
  • open 14484.54
  • high 14513.14
  • low 14234.45
  • USDJPY 101.78

USDJPY supported by the closing Nikkei rally back into positive territory, albeit still some way off its highs.

Now let’s see what happens with the futures market

5 Points for Discretionary Traders

05 April 2014 - 15:10 pm
 

1)  A discipline of pre-market preparation:  All emphasize the importance of process and preparation: sticking to what you do best and being prepared for fresh opportunity–and threat–each market day.

2)  Selectivity:  All have some methods for screening stocks and focusing on a core group that offer opportunity.  Often, these screens focus on stocks that are trading actively, that show good movement, and that are setting up for directional price moves because of earnings reports, breakout patterns, etc.

3)  Patience:  This follows from the first two.  The experienced traders emphasize risk management and waiting for high quality trades, rather than overtrading.  All stress understanding the current market environment and adapting to it.

4)  Diversification:  These traders don’t focus on one or two opportunities, but look at a range of promising shares and setups and trade more than one thing at a time.  All the proverbial eggs are not in one basket.

5)  Simplicity:  My sense is that the traders are focused on understanding what is happening now, not predicting what will happen in the future.  If I had to guess, I’d say that they are talented in detecting the flow of activity in and out of shares and are riding moves as they are getting under way.  They don’t appear to be researching deep value and holding for long periods to wait for that value to be realized.

 

The ECB meeting and the US jobs data are the two key events in the coming days. At the March meeting, the ECB failed to take fresh action. That broke the equilibrium that had kept the euro in a five cent trading range ($1.33-$1.38). Only now, amid dovish comments from ECB officials and a more hawkish Fed, accompanied by a thus far sustained rise in the Fed funds and Eurodollar futures strips, have managed to push the euro back into its former range. 

The US employment data will be the first since the FOMC de-emphasized the unemployment rate itself in the forward guidance if offered, choosing instead to focus on a wider array of economic variables. Clearly, with the shifts in participation, the unemployment was always a flawed threshold, though useful up to a point.
 
The shift in the Fed’s forward guidance may encourage a change in the market’s focus. We suggest that average hourly earnings may be of greater importance than the market often attributes to it. At her press conference, in response to a question, Yellen played down the modest increase seen recently.
 
Average hourly earnings had risen by 0.4% in February and some observers have warned that this is a sign of a tightening in the labor market and the beginning of the long called for increase in inflation. However, average earnings seemed to have been inflated by the statistical consequence of the decline in hours. The decline in hours is likely distorted by the weather. >> Read More
 

* There are basically two types of over trading. Trading too often and trading too many shares/contracts.

* Remember that there really is no good reason to trade constantly, since extreme over-trading creates stress, produces high commissions and can often lead to more losses.

* Market forces do not last forever and time has shown various examples of the law of gravity in the trading market- that whatever comes up must go down. – and vice versa.

* Instead of grabbing every opportunity that comes along (or thinking that it is an opportunity) make sure each trade setup meets the criteria of your trading plan, don’t be over confident or scared of making trades.

* Utilizing a risk calculator to determine the appropriate position size before you enter a trade can help you determine how many shares/contracts you initially buy. You can start off with a small position and add as the trade continues in your favor. It relieves stress to know that the amount at risk for each position you hold is well proportioned to the size of your entire account and this is great asset management.

* Whenever you feel that you did not stick to your trading plan and made a mistake, quickly learn from that and let it go.

 

1.  The pace of position adjustment picked up over the course of the  reporting period that ended on March 18.  The general pattern was to add to gross longs and cut gross short foreign currency positions.  The Canadian dollar was the only currency futures that we track here that saw an increase in gross shorts. Sterling was the only one that saw a gross longs pared. 

2.  There were three adjustments that we regard as substantial, which we define as a gross adjustment of 10k contracts or more.  The short gross yen positions were culled by nearly 30k contracts to 85.2k.  It is the biggest short covering since July 2012.  It underscores our argument that the yen’s safe haven appeal is more about short covering that fleeing to Japan.  Gross short Canadian dollar positions jumped 20k contracts to 97.6k.   It is the largest jump in shorts since last December.  This was before the FOMC meeting that saw the Canadian dollar sell-off to new multi-year lows.  The gross long Australian dollar positions more than doubled to 21.6k contracts, reflecting a 13k increase, bolstered perhaps by ideas the next move for the Reserve Bank of Australia is a hike.

3.  The 53.0k net long euro contracts is the most since last November.  The 61.1k net short yen contracts is the smallest since last October.  The net long Swiss franc futures position of 15.1k contracts is the largest since June 2011.  The 24.5k net short Australian dollar contracts is the smallest since last November. 

4.  The short-term speculative market was ill-prepared for the unexpected hawkishness of the Federal Reserve the day after the reporting period ended.  Some who were stopped out may be part of the bargain hunting seen before the weekend, such as in the euro and Australian dollar. 

9 Secrets for Successful Speculation

19 March 2014 - 10:30 am
 

As you read the list below, think about how you can learn more about each secret and adapt it to your own most effective use.

Secret #1: Contrarianism takes courage.

Everyone knows the essential investment formula: “Buy low, sell high,” but it is so much easier said than done, it might as well be a secret formula.

The way to really make it work is to invest in an asset or commodity that people want and need but that for reasons of market cyclicality or other temporary factors, no one else is buying. When the vast majority thinks something necessary is a bad investment, you want to be a buyer—that’s what it means to be a contrarian.

Obviously, if this were easy, everyone would do it, and there would be no such thing as a contrarian opportunity. But it is very hard for most people to think independently enough to risk hard-won cash in ways others think is mistaken or too dangerous. Hence, fortune favors the bold.

Secret #2: Success takes discipline.

It’s not just a matter of courage, of course; you can bravely follow a path right off a cliff if you’re not careful. So you have to have a game plan for risk mitigation. You have to expect market volatility and turn it to your advantage. And you’ll need an exit strategy.

The ways a successful speculator needs discipline are endless, but the most critical of all is to employ smart buying and selling tactics, so you don’t get goaded into paying too much or spooked into selling for too little.

Secret #3: Analysis over emotion. >> Read More

L&T Holdings-An Alert For Sebi !

14 March 2014 - 8:20 am
 
REDALERTHow many times has it happened that two stocks-L&T Finance and Just Dial, have been introduced in the FNO segment mid-way through an on-going series? I do not remember many such occasions or even the necessity that excludes introduction of new stocks with a new series-in these cases from April 2014. But it has been done so. The surprising part was that L&T Finance entered the Futures segment with a 3 per cent ulta badla. Implying the cash market price was higher than the futures price. This led many brokers to send out buy calls on the futures, with simultaneous call to sell demat stock into the cash market. This keeps the orginal buy position intact in the futures market but allows the investor to pocket the difference, should cash and futures price reach parity at the end of the March series on 27th.
 
However it is unclear if the insiders new of a possible ensuing corporate announcement…viz a sale by L&T of 5.5 crore shares at a base price of Rs 70 through the OFS window on March 14, 2014 and hence there were enough people who have shorted the Futures market. And viola, the L&T management has possibly rewarded shorts by making the following announcement at 9.30 pm on March 13, 2014.
 
Larsen & Toubro Ltd (“the Seller”) the Promoter of L&T Finance Holdings Ltd (the “Company”) has submitted to BSE a Notice of Offer for Sale up to 5,55,05,755 equity shares of face value of Rs. 10 each, constituting 3.23% of the equity share capital of the Company (Sale Shares) on March 14, 2014 exclusively through the Seller’s broker on the separate window provided by the BSE Limited (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) (the Stock Exchanges). In addition to the Sale Shares, the Seller may also sell up to 2,77,52,878 equity shares of face value Rs. 10 each of the Company in the Sale on March 14, 2014 (the Additional Shares, and together with the Sale Shares, the Shares).The Sale shall take place at the separate window of the Stock Exchanges and shall commence on March 14, 2014 at 9.15 a.m. and shall close on the same day at 3.30 p.m. Indian Standard Time (the Trade Date).
 
Will the Sebi look into the matter and postpone OFS to April 2014, and cancel all contracts made in FNO on March 13, 2014?

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.