Posts Tagged: futures contract

 
  • Prior 264k. Revised to 266k
  • Continued claims 2.351m vs 2.380m exp. Prior 2.389m
  • 4 week average 281k vs 283.5k. Revised to 284k

You just can’t find bad news in this weekly report.

USD/JPY is taking off again to resistance at 107.70/75 and we’ve got a very positive dollar environment with decent stock earnings being reflected in bond yields rising and stock futures pointing to a good cash opening.

A steady fall in the US unemployment rate has proved a bright spot in a six-year recovery that, as far as the wider performance of the US economy is concerned, has been uneven.

The total number of people still receiving jobless benefits in the US was 2.35m. It peaked at 6.6m in May 2009.

US initial jobless claims 23 10 2014

 

Nelson Bunker Hunt, who has died at the age of 88, was everything a Texan oil tycoon was supposed to be. Once one of the richest men in the world, he made and lost fortunes in crude, commodities, thoroughbred race horses, pizza parlours and commercial development. But he will be remembered most for trying to corner the global market in silver, an endeavour that went down in flames, eventually sending him into bankruptcy, when the bubble in the market for the metal burst in 1980.

He was the second son of HL Hunt, the prototypical wildcatter, who fathered 14 children in three families who did not know of the existence of the others.

Born on February 22 1926, in El Dorado, Texas, Bunker Hunt was by contrast monogamous, with three daughters and a son by his wife Caroline, all of whom survive him. He was very religious and a fervent anticommunist, a supporter of the likes of the John Birch Society.

He also lived modestly, a non-smoking teetotaller who drove old Cadillacs, flew economy class and preferred barbecue shacks to plush Dallas oil clubs.

Having dropped out of the University of Texas, he joined his father’s company but quit to strike out on his own in Pakistan and the Middle East. Dry wells forced him to sell half his interest in the Sarir oilfields in Libya in 1960 to BP, but a year later the partners struck oil and the money flowed. >> Read More

Trading Psychology Quotes

21 October 2014 - 11:41 am
 

Anyone who claims to be intrigued by the “intellectual challenge of the markets” is not a trader. The markets are as intellectually challenging as a fistfight. Ultimately, trading is an exercise in self-mastery and endurance.

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.

Just remember, without discipline, a clear strategy, and a concise plan, the speculator will fall into all the emotional pitfalls of the market – jump from one stock to another, hold a losing position too long, and cut out of a winner too soon, for no reason other than fear of losing profit. Greed, Fear, Impatience, Ignorance, and Hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator. Then, after a few failures and catastrophes the speculator may become demoralised, depressed, despondent, and abandon the market and the chance to make a fortune from what the market has to offer. >> Read More

 
  1. Trading too big to “get back to even”.

  2. Going “all in” on one trade that they believe they just can’t lose.

  3. Being on the wrong side of an asymmetric trade.  Being short options for possible small gains if right but big losses if wrong.  In the long term eventually this blows up.

  4. Fighting a trend over and over again, a trend that a trader or investor can not even believe is very dangerous because shorts look better the higher a stock goes and longs look like they are getting a bargain the lower the stock sinks.

  5. In a losing trade the trader starts thinking “add more to a losing position” instead of “I need to cut my loss short”.

  6. The trader believes they are right and the market is wrong.

  7. Traders are trading markets they do not even fully understand and a trader must fully understand the risk and leverage involved  in currencies, futures, options, and commodities to prevent possible blow ups due from ignorance.

If a trader can tightly control risk and position sizes this will get them closer to getting in the club with the 10% of winning traders.

 

Highlights of the initial jobless claims report for the week ending Oct 11:

  • Prior reading was 287K

Claims are at a post-crisis low.

initial jobless claims

The data is giving the US dollar a bump and has slightly pared losses in stock futures.

 

Q1FY15 deal signings of $32m, the highest since Q4FY11, has raised hopes amongst investors of OFSS having turned a corner. Our analysis though suggests otherwise. Even in a best case scenario,new license signings of $80m in FY15 would only lead to 15% growth for the products business. Given that we are moving into the seasonally weak quarters, the best case scenario is unlikely to play out in our view. With the special dividend surprise, investors are now likely to keep a tab on cash accretion (to anticipate future special dividends), making OFSS an event driven play. Currently trading at 22x FY16 EPS, OFSS is an expensive way to play the

global products space. We raise our FY15 revenue and EPS estimates by 7% and 4% and reiterate SELL on OFSS with a new FV of Rs2,750 (up from Rs2,600).Nothing has changed fundamentally to alter our view

OFSS has underperformed the BSE-IT index by c.1% YTD including special dividend. While Q1FY15 license signing of $32m was strong and the highest since Q4FY11, can we extrapolate these numbers to conclude higher growth is in the offing in FY15 and FY16? We don’t think so. >> Read More

Traders Must Follow These Rules

11 October 2014 - 11:29 am
 

More important than any entry system….Money management and trading psychology are much important

Keep Losses Small…

Trade with stops

Trade in the direction of the trend

Doubling down is a sure way to lose money and blow up

Trade with a complete plan knowing exactly what to buy/sell…how much to buy/sell and know exactly when the trade does not work… >> Read More

10 Trading Mistakes

10 October 2014 - 11:44 am
 
  1. Are you trading without a plan? Trading without a plan makes you emotional and a gambler.
  2. Do you ever trade too big for your trading account size? Big trades are bad trades for the emotional engagement and risk of ruin that they entail over the long term.
  3. Do you risk losing more if you are wrong than you will make if you are right? The biggest driver of profitability in your trading will be big wins and small losses. Big losses and small wins is a sure path to losing your trading capital.
  4. Have you traded without studying charts to see what has happened historically with similiar price patterns? If you do your homework you can make money understanding possibilities and probabilities from past patterns. Trading your own opinions will usually put you on the wrong side of the market. 
  5. Did you trade a system before you back-tested it?Or are you just trading blindly?
  6. Have you ever exited a trade due to fear instead of due to hitting your stop loss or trailing stop? The right exit is what determines your profitability and whether your win is a big one or your loss is a big one.
  7. Have you ever entered a trade becasue of greed without an entry signal? Chasing a trade after the trend is over is a great way to lose money consistently and quickly.
  8. Have you ever copied someone else’s trade not knowing their time frame or position size? Ultimately you have to trade your own system and your own method that matches your own personality and risk tolerance. Only you can make yourself profitable with faith in yourself and your method.
  9. Are you that person that loves to short during market up trends and miss a whole up move?The easy money is on the side of the trend in your time frame going against the trend is a great way to lose money.
  10. Are you that knife catcher that keeps going long at the worn time in a down trend? When everyone is exiting a market that is the worst time to be getting long as wave after wave of holders are leaving. 
 

NF-FRIDAYYour trading performance shows how you respond to risk, opportunity, and uncertainty; it reflects your personality. As anyone who has traded on a simulator knows, when you transition to cash your trading changes, with real money on the line, the real you will take over. That’s why the focus has to be on what makes you tick, what makes you do the things you do?

My advice is to devote some time to learning what makes you tick, what causes you to move? Self-awareness is an excellent foundation for building discipline. Most traders who are frustrated with their performance will spend more time trying to figure out what causes the market to move, even if they have a sense that the problem is something within them such as being more patient or accepting losses.

Markets move capital from one account to another. By developing self-awareness, you are gaining a more sustainable edge over other traders. Some of the best traders in the world know this. One successful hedge fund I’ve been to has a large picture of a ferocious looking shark to remind traders that it’s eat or be eaten.

fryday-10Last Close :7990

Yesterday ,We had written :Above 7926 level it will zoom to kiss 7969-7983 level.

Above 7983 level ,Our Targets were :8026—————-8040 level.

lionheart

Recommended to our Subscribers :Go short with Stop of 8040 in TONS & Let’s see ……What happens ?

NiftY Future was at 8000-7995 level.

Now ,While Updating SGX NIFTY @ 7920 ( -65 POINTS )

MINT MONEY 24BY7

Yes ,Mint Money in Up or Down Trend !

NF-1010

Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future

Nifty Future -Our Instrument and Indian Traders are NOT able to trade after 3:30 ?FIIS/Corporate trades at SGX 

Nobody tells or write :We should start Nifty Future Trading till  SGX Closes late Night (Think about Traders in India )

Manipulation by Corporate Houses +Insider Trading + Data been leaked from SE +Market controlled by Fiis + SGX Nifty decide trend =Indian Stock Market ?

Now -What to expect

Below 7961 ,PANIC upto 7923 is possible.

Now if trades below 7923 level for 15-20 minutes with volumes will take to 7894-7885 level.

Break below 7885 will create More panic and NF can break low of 7855 level too.

Will it Break 7855 level (First ) or will zoom to kiss 8040

7th Trading session……Will See Unexpected level !

101% More Details ,Intraday levels to our Subscribers.

Updated at 8:20/11th Oct/Baroda

 
  • -107.12
  • open 15841.17
  • high 15913.52
  • low 15755.57
  • USDJPY 108.61

A late fade saw USDJPY on session lows so let’s see if there’s any follow through with the futures market

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.