- *FOMC MINUTES: MANY SAID MORE PROGRESS NEEDED BEFORE SLOWING QE
- *FED’S BROAD PRINCIPLES ON EXIT `STILL VALID,’ FOMC MINUTES SHOW
- *SOME ON FOMC WILLING TO SLOW ASSET PURCHASES AS EARLY AS JUNE
Two things seem clear: 1) the Fed is explicitly forcing the market to hope for bad data to maintain gains as the gap between market and reality is now too large for a soft-landing; and 2) the Fed has explicitly admitted that it is the ‘flow’ not the ‘stock’ that matters – as we have been vociferous about for years.
The exit seems closer than many expected…
Pre: ES 1666.5, 10Y 2.01%, Gold $1363.50, DXY 84.28
The key section from the Minutes:
Participants also touched on the conditions under which it might be appropriate to change the pace of asset purchases. Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress since the program was started in September, but many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate. A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome. One participant preferred to begin decreasing the rate of purchases immediately, while another participant preferred to add more monetary accommodation at the current meeting and mentioned that the Committee had several other tools it could potentially use to do so. Most participants emphasized that it was important for the Committee to be prepared to adjust the pace of its purchases up or down as needed to align the degree of policy accommodation with changes in the outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as the extent of progress toward the Committee’s economic objectives. Regarding the composition of purchases, one articipant expressed the view that, in light of the substantial improvement in the housing market and to avoid further credit allocation across sectors of the conomy, the Committee should start to shift any asset purchases away from MBS and toward Treasury securities.
FOMC May Minutes.pdf
Vedanta Resources Plc is exporting 4,000 tonnes of refined copper a month from Dubai to customers of India’s Sterlite Industries, whose smelter will stay shut until at least 22 May when a court resumes hearing a case over its closure.
The plant, run by Vedanta unit Sterlite Industries , meets half of India’s copper demand. The closure of the facility, which produces 30,000 tonnes of refined copper a month and exports nearly half of that to China, has tightened supply and driven up prices.
The smelter was closed on 30 March after residents complained of emissions that led to breathing problems.
The shutdown has led to a doubling of copper imports to about 8,000 tonnes per month from countries like Russia, P. Ramnath, chief executive of Sterlite Copper, told Reuters.
“Because of the shutdown, the gap has increased between demand and supply, which has basically resulted in premiums going up,” metals trader Ushdev International’s managing director Ashwin Rathi told Reuters last Friday. “I don’t think the Sterlite issue would be resolved any time soon.” >> Read More 
Pope Francis has attacked the “dictatorship” of the global financial system and warned that the “cult of money” was making life a misery for millions.
He said free-market capitalism had created a “tyranny” and that human beings were being judged purely by their ability to consume goods.
Money should be made to “serve” people, not to “rule” them, he said, calling for a more ethical financial system and curbs on financial speculation.
Countries should impose more control over their economies and not allow “absolute autonomy”, in order to provide “for the common good”. >> Read More
We Indicated this NEWS on April 30th !!
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ), India’s biggest private port operator, has been granted security clearance by the government to participate in auctions for port projects after a gap of more than two years.
The security clearance granted to the firm will be valid for a period of three years, according to a new government policy. This will automatically enable APSEZ to bid for port tenders anywhere in India.
On Friday, the shipping ministry communicated to Chennai port its decision to grant security clearance to APSEZ to bid for one project in Kochi port and two in Kandla port. Mint has reviewed this communication, which also directed Chennai port to “take appropriate action” on a Rs.3,686 crore new terminal that is designed to load 4.8 million standard containers a year, implying that APSEZ was free to bid for the project.
The bidding process for the terminal has been stalled since December pending security clearance for APSEZ. When its price bid for the project was not opened by Chennai port on 24 December 2012, for lack of security clearance, APSEZ had filed a representation with Chennai port seeking a review of the government’s decision to deny clearance. >> Read More Comments Off | Leave Comment Posted in: Analysis
Presented with little comment aside to note that based on a tweet, the ‘deeply liquid’ US equity market collapsed instantaneously as all those liquidity-providing ‘algos’ jumped ship…
The lower pane shows the market depth disappearing courtesy of Nanex.
The S&P tested down to yesterday’s close filling the gap perfectly…
The good news, if indeed this was merely a test for “the big one”, is that everyone managed to sell ahead of everyone else. Right?
Different shapes and forms.
Failure comes in all different shapes and forms. The distance you fall after a failure, time it took to get to the failure,and whether you get back up determines that shape and form. I realize there are a million posts on why failure is important but success is important, especially in trading.
Failure is different in trading.
Failure/losing in trading is not the same as failure in other contexts. What is working right now is always changing. What happens to many traders is that they waste money until their system is working again or they run out of money before it happens. I believe in having a process so you can adapt to that change. When you find something that works continue to do it till it does not work. A 100x easier said than done.
Trading is gambling for some. >> Read More
Comments Off | Leave Comment Posted in: Education
On cue, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat base in the Bundestag has warned that there can be no increase in the EU-IMF rescue package for Cyprus.
The Cypriot people alone must carry the extra cost of up to €5.5bn beyond what was already agreed in the €17.5bn deal in March.
“Should that not be possible, the assent of the German Bundestag next week is out of the question,” said Christian von Stetten, a key member of the finance committee.
“The escalating gap in funding is huge and confirms my doubts in the finance framework prepared by the Troika and the Republic of Cyprus. It is going the way of Greece. Ever more funding gaps keep coming to light,” he said. >> Read More
Comments Off | Leave Comment Posted in: Analysis
Japanese government bonds and futures fell Friday after a bond-buying operation by the Bank of Japan failed to impress investors.
Lead June JGB futures took a hit, finishing down 1.00 at 143.73, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield was up 6.5 basis points at 0.615% as of 0600 GMT.
Japanese government bond prices have fluctuated this week as uncertainty remains after the BOJ’s announcement last week that it would significantly expand its easing program, mainly through increasing its JGB purchases from financial firms.
Though BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda has said the central bank will seek to lower yields on JGBs of all maturities, JGB yields have actually risen after the central bank’s bond-buying operations this week.
“The central bank seem to have moved up the dates of the second operation to rescue the collapsed medium-term bond market,” said Barclays fixed-income strategist Chotaro Morita. “However, as there is a gap until the next operation, concerns about the supply and demand issue still prevail,” he said, adding that the operation didn’t solve liquidity issues.
The BOJ purchased a total of 2.51 trillion yen ($25 billion) in JGBs of all maturities from financial firms at four separate offers through today’s easing operation that combined its third round of buying. >> Read More
Comments Off | Leave Comment Posted in: Analysis
Above is Daily Chart of INFOSYS ,Just see Gap @ 2355 level.
Today it filled Gap and made low of 2339.45 level.
Today Left ,Gap @ 2836 level.
Now Close below 2402 for 2 sessions will take to 2257———-2212 level !!!
Suppose Not BREAKS 2239 & Trades above 2376 level……….Then Rally upto 2488————–2525 is possible.
(Forget Fundamentals ,Forget Ethics …….101% Now stock is in Manipulative Category ,No if and But )
-More Details to our Subscribers.Updated at 10:06/12th April/Baroda/India
Comments Off | Leave Comment Posted in: Analysis
The day a trader gives up their personal opinions and begins to ask themselves “What is the chart saying?” is the day they break through to a new level. Our job as traders is not to predict it is to figure out what the chart is saying through price action. Charts can show currently if capital is flowing in or out of the market you are trading. Clues are given at resistance levels, support levels, moving averages, some trend lines, and volume. A chart is a fact while our opinion is just that, and everyone has one. The markets are hard to trade for the majority because they are counter intuitive. Bull markets end when sentiment is the most bullish and the market runs out of buyers at higher prices, bear markets bottom when everyone has already sold out and no one wants to sell at the low price. Monster stocks implode when they are over owned by institutions and their fundamentals are close to a peak. Trends continue in the same direction until some force acts upon it to stop it or reverse it. My biggest money is always made when I shut out my opinions and follow the chart. My losses are when I fight a trend and start believing “It just can’t go lower” or “It just can’t go higher” trust me, YES IT CAN! Trade the chart, not your opinions, that is what the vast majority of all the top rich traders do.
Above is Daily Chart of Nifty Future-Last Close : 5594.80
Minor Hurdle at 5622——————–5631 level for Traders.
Crossover and close above this level with volumes will take to 5699—————–5717 level !!
-GAP @ 5666 has to be filled ,Will it fall and Fall or will rally to kiss 5700 level ??
Today’s Support levels :5584———-5575.Break below 5575 will take to 5550—5542 !!
Daily Chart Indicators favouring Bulls for time being ,But Weekly & Monthly chart…………101% Bearish !!
Maximum upmove upto 5700 -Neckline Retest can happen.But over all picture looking very very scary !!
Will Update more to our Subscribers ,Updated at 7:47/12th April/Baroda/India
