India’s current account deficit, which hit a record high in the last fiscal year, is expected to rise in the June quarter from the previous three-month period before easing due to sharp fall in gold imports and improving exports.
Posts Tagged: gap
1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
5. Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
6. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.
7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old trader’s wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can. >> Read More
We’ve all read innumerable times that we learn more from failure than from success. Well, that’s not quite accurate. The sentence should probably read: “Failure provides a better opportunity for learning than does success.” Not all people—in fact, probably few people, take advantage of the opportunity that failure offers.
John C. Maxwell, a prolific author of self-help books, wants to increase the number of learners. Sometimes You Win—Sometimes You Learn: Life’s Greatest Lessons Are Gained from Our Losses (Center Street/Hachette, October 2013) explains how to turn failure into learning. John Wooden wrote the foreword to the book, based on its outline, a few months before he died.
Losses are tough, there’s no getting around this fact. They cause us to become emotionally stuck and mentally defeated, they create a gap between knowing and doing, they never leave us the same. They hurt, but when we don’t learn from them they really hurt.
Maxwell approaches learning from multiple perspectives: the foundation of learning, the focus of learning, the motivation of learning, the pathway of learning, the catalyst of learning, the price of learning, and the value of learning. His final chapter is entitled “Winning Isn’t Everything, But Learning Is.” He incorporates anecdotes, insights from others, and apposite quotations such as Bill Gates’s famous line: “Success is a lousy teacher. It makes smart people think they can’t lose.” >> Read More
India has slipped to 60th position in terms of its competitiveness globally, while Switzerland has retained its top rank.
This is India’s lowest ever rank and also 31 places below its peer emerging market China.
Releasing the annual Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, Geneva-based World Economic Forum (WEF) today said highly innovative countries with strong institutions continue to top the rankings.
While Switzerland is on top for fifth year in a row, United States has reversed its four-year downward trend to occupy 5th position and Japan has risen to ninth place. >> Read More
Deutsche Bank’s co-CEO Anshu Jain has been speaking at a banking conference in Frankfurt this morning organised by German newspaper the Handelsblatt, reports the FT’s Frankfurt correspondent, Alice Ross.
After suffering some light teasing from the German presenters about the fact he was speaking in English, here are some highlights:
- He expressed concern over the stricter rules on leverage ratios being imposed on US banks compared to European banks, saying that the US was adopting a ‘very’ high standard and that Europe hadn’t and shouldn’t. Still, he said that the debate over leverage ratios was “done” and that the industry now needed to move on.
- He sounded repeated warnings about the growing gap in economic growth between the US and Europe, with European countries falling further behind: “Europe is falling behind the US in every factor; the banking sector is one of them,” he said.
- He also warned that regulation has become competitive between different regimes: specifically the US and Europe, such that at times the regulations contradict each other and make it hard for the banks to follow – though he insisted he was critical of the need for regulation as such. >> Read More
The headline figure is likely to viewed with some satisfaction by policy makers trying to overturn more than a decade of deflation in Japan, which they claim has sapped companies’ willingness to invest while weighing on household consumption.
The Bank of Japan, under the firm direction of Shinzo Abe, prime minister, is aiming to keep monetary policy loose enough to achieve a 2 per cent rate of inflation by March 2015. Mr Abe, for his part, has adopted a more flexible approach to fiscal spending while pushing for various structural reforms to boost Japan’s attractiveness as an investment destination.
However, the figures showed that while resource-poor Japan is paying more for mineral fuels, a broader, demand-driven recovery is yet to take hold. Excluding fresh food, the all-items index rose by 0.7 per cent from a year earlier, and by 0.1 per cent from June. >> Read More
India’s finance minister P. Chidambaram met with top bankers Saturday to discuss ways to boost the weak rupee and bring in more foreign capital to bridge a trade gap that has put pressure on the currency.
Chidambaram was accompanied by top officials at the meeting in India’s financial hub of Mumbai with representatives of leading private and public sector banks.
As the US economy picks up, the Federal Reserve is expected to start winding down its bond-buying stimulus scheme which has helped fuel an investment splurge in Asia’s emerging markets.
“The meeting was mainly to seek ideas and suggestions on what can be done about capital inflows. It was a very good and positive meeting,” ICICI Bank’s chief executive Chanda Kochhar told reporters. >> Read More
Indonesia, home to the Asian equity market worst hit in the broad sell-off this week, has lowered its GDP estimate and announced a series of new policies aimed at shoring up the rupiah and increasing confidence.
Policymakers revised GDP growth this year down to less than 6 per cent, versus 6.3 per cent before.
Indonesian policymakers including economy minister Hatta Rajasa and finance minister Chatib Basri outlined the new policies as follows:
- offering corporate tax breaks and certain tax deductions for labour-intensive companies (to help avoid lay-offs)
- curbing imports with higher duties on luxury goods
- relaxing quotas on mineral exports, which were set in May 2012 to protect the nation’s resources.
- providing incentives to research and development
- simplifying permits for investment
- speeding up strategic infrastructure projects >> Read More
The rupee’s recent fall has bewildered the government because nothing it does is able to stem it. Anyone who listened to economic affairs secretary Arvind Mayaram during an investors’ call on Tuesday would believe the government has a plan in place to save the rupee. The Street, however, believes the government’s arithmetic isn’t factoring in portfolio outflows, which could be as high as $20 billion. It is clear the government and the market are not on the same page.
The first difference between Mayaram’s and the market’s assumption is that inflows will stabilise. Even though the total capital outflows from debt add up to $9 billion, the government believes things will settle after foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sell un-hedged exposure.
Second, the market believes the government is under-estimating the dollar shortfall and it isn’t raising enough dollars to fund the gap. The government has factored in a balance of payments (BoP) shortfall of $6 billion for FY14 and it plans to raise $11 billion through quasi-sovereign bonds, liberal interest rates for non-resident deposits and opening up the external commercial borrowing segment for public sector enterprises. The market expects a shortfall of $20-25 billion. In the investors call on Tuesday, Mayaram explained: “You cannot be looking for buffer of $20 billion only, that’s an irrational demand.” Over the next couple of months, public sector enterprises alone would have raised $4 billion through external commercial borrowing (ECB) and once this happens, the rupee might stop its one-way move. Also, the government is confident of curtailing the current account deficit (CAD) at 3.7 per cent of GDP in FY14 from last year’s 4.8 per cent. >> Read More
The rupee’s troubles stem from a current account gap that is likely to hit $15bn this year, according to JPMorgan.
If perturbed foreign investors don’t make up the shortfall, India must raise funds elsewhere or prepare for further currency falls, which Bank of America Merrill Lynch says could see the rupee head below Rs65 next year.
When Mr Rajan takes up his post in September, therefore, he must first decide whether to keep the “temporary” tightening measures brought in by the RBI in mid-July. >> Read More