Sun, 28th May 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “global economy” Tag

Minutes from the Bank of Japan December 18/19 meeting out now -Full Text Link

Minutes from the Bank of Japan December 18/19 meeting … looks like pretty stadard stuff from the:

  •  Japan economy has continued to recover moderately
  • BOJ to keep easing until 2% inflation stable

Full text

–Developments have rendered these Minutes perhaps a little redundant

–More (via Reuters):

  • Members shared recognition global markets had shown some nervousness
  • Some members said while oil price falls had positive effect on global economy, it could risk destabilising markets
  • Some members said political turmoil in Greece might have adverse effects on euro-area economy
  • Some members said oil price falls would support economic activity through rises in corporate profits, households’ real income
  • One member said there might be growing tendency among firms to postpone capex plans
  • Some members said various surveys showed business sentiment had turned cautious
  • Many members said relatively weak developments had been recently observed in consumer sentiment surveys
  • Many members said oil price falls were likely to exert downward pressure on CPI for time being
  • Many members said oil price falls would have positive effect on economy, push up prices long-term

European current account surplus falls from record;Oct SA EUR +20.5bln vs +32.0bln

The eurozone’s current account surplus has dropped back from the record high it hit in September. That should ease concerns about the “euroglut” in the global economy that has been created by chronically weak consumer demand in Europe.

The surplus was €20.5bn in October, down from a record €32bn in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a €28bn surplus.

A nation’s current account is the broadest measure of its financial relationships with the rest of the world, and tracks its exports and imports well as savings and investments.

Deutsche Bank came up with the term “euroglut” to illustrate how chronically weak demand and the resultant lack of imports to Europe was causing stress for other countries and holding back global recovery.

Fed calls time on $5.7 trillion of emerging market dollar debt

The US Federal Reserve has pulled the trigger. Emerging markets must now brace for their ordeal by fire.

They have collectively borrowed $5.7 trillion in US dollars, a currency they cannot print and do not control. This hard-currency debt has tripled in a decade, split between $3.1 trillion in bank loans and $2.6 trillion in bonds. It is comparable in scale and ratio-terms to any of the biggest cross-border lending sprees of the past two centuries.

Much of the debt was taken out at real interest rates of 1pc on the implicit assumption that the Fed would continue to flood the world with liquidity for years to come. The borrowers are “short dollars”, in trading parlance. They now face the margin call from Hell as the global monetary hegemon pivots.

The Fed dashed all lingering hopes for leniency on Wednesday. The pledge to keep uber-stimulus for a “considerable time” has gone, and so has the market’s security blanket, or the Fed Put as it is called. Such tweaks of language have multiplied potency in a world of zero rates.

China’s trade surplus swells to record high :$ 54.5bn (expected +$43.95bn)

China’s trade surplus swelled to the highest on record in November, as imports unexpectedly tumbled.

Both sides of this report were negative, calling into question some recent reports suggesting the economy had stabilised in the fourth quarter.

Chinese exports increased just 4.7 per cent from a year ago last month, missing estimates for an 8 per cent increase and slowing from an 11.6 per cent pace in October. The weak print reflects a weak recovery in the global economy.

Imports fell 6.7 per cent from a year ago, versus expectations that they would rise 3.8 per cent. This is the more dramatic news, indicating consumption in the world’s second largest economy could be much lower than thought.

As a result of falling imports, the monthly trade surplus rose to $54.47bn – the highest in 14 years of Bloomberg data – from $45.4bn the month before.

Marc Faber: “”I don’t look at government statistics because all governments around the world lie.”VIDEO

There is nothing safe anymore, because the money-printing distorts all asset prices,” is the uncomfortable response Marc Faber gives to Thai TV during this interview when asked for investment ideas. Faber explains how we got here “massive money-printing and ZIRP creates a huge pool of liquidity that does not flow evenly,” as it washes from Nasdaq stocks to real estate to emerging markets and so on. Each time, “the bubble inflates and then is deflated as the capital (liquidity) floods out.” The Fed, based on the doubling of interest rates since they began QE3 “has lost control of the bond market,” Faber warns; adding that while he expects some “cosmetic tapering,” the Fed members and other neo-Keynesian clowns will react to a “weakening US and global economy,” and we will be a $150 billion QE by the end of next year, as the world is held hostage to US monetary policy.

 The interview is interspersed with Thai translation but is well worth the time (starting at 1:25):


How did we get here (1:25): Read More 

GLOBAL ECONOMY-Grappling with the Fed and other uncertainties

Surveys set to show global manufacturing on the rise

* Fed under fire for fumbling forward guidance

* U.S. Congress set for debt showdown

 A clutch of surveys this week is likely to show the global economyslowly picking up even as new and old uncertainties combine to test the optimism of businesses and consumers alike.

Purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) for the euro zone, China and the United States are all forecast to climb further away from the boom-bust line of 50. Germany’s closely watched IFObusiness sentiment index is also expected to show a gain.

Gross domestic product in the euro zone remains 3 percent below its 2008 peak and unemployment is at a record high, but the 17-member bloc is set to expand for the second quarter in a row after 18 months of contraction, according to Bert Colijn, an economist with the Conference Board in Brussels.

Even the construction industry, which crashed when the financial crisis struck, appears to be bottoming out.

“The outlook continues to improve for Europe in general,” Colijn said. “The fact that we’re seeing a momentum change at the moment is a positive signal.” Read More 

Here’s A One Paragraph Explanation For Why Markets Are On Such A Roll

eagleSocGen’s Kit Juckes explains it in simple terms:

European and Asian equities and ‘risk-on’ currencies have all benefitted as the post-payroll asset rally gained momentum. I think the move has a decent chance to last till Christmas. Tapering will be announced next week, the ‘tapering isn’t tightening message’ will be repeated and policy uncertainty will decrease. The Fed is on hold until the second half of 2015, the ECB for even longer, the Chinese slowdown is having a vacation (thanks to some shadow banking) and it looks as though military action in Syria will be avoided. Have the global economy’s structural problems gone up in a puff of smoke? No, but that’s not the point right now.

US Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected

The U.S. trade deficit widened 13.3% to $39.1 billion in July.

 Economists expected it to have expanded to $38.6 billion.

The trade gap with China widened to a record $30.1 billion from $26.6 billion.

“The global economy showed signs of recovery in July, with business confidence and activity data surprising on the upside in both the euro area and in China,” wrote the economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch before the report.

Putin Warns West On Syria Action

BREAKING NEWS-FLASHPresident Vladimir Putin warned the West against taking one-sided action in Syria but also said Russia “doesn’t exclude” supporting a U.N. resolution on punitive military strikes if it is proved that Damascus used poison gas on its own people.

In a wide-ranging interview with The Associated Press and Russia’s state Channel 1 television, Putin said Moscow has provided some components of the S-300 air defense missile system to Syria but has frozen further shipments. He suggested that Russia may sell the potent missile systems elsewhere if Western nations attack Syria without U.N. Security Council backing.

The interview Tuesday night at Putin’s country residence outside the Russian capital was the only one he granted prior to the summit of G-20 nations in St. Petersburg, which opens Thursday. The summit was supposed to concentrate on the global economy but now looks likely to be dominated by the international crisis over allegations that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in the country’s civil war.

Putin said he felt sorry that President Barack Obama canceled a one-on-one meeting in Moscow that was supposed to have happened before the summit. But he expressed hope the two would have serious discussions about Syria and other issues in St. Petersburg.PUTIN

“President Obama hasn’t been elected by the American people in order to be pleasant to Russia. And your humble servant hasn’t been elected by the people of Russia to be pleasant to someone either,” he said of their relationship. Read More 

ROUBINI: Investors Are Underestimating The Republican ‘Jihad’ Against Spending

September promises to be one hell of a month for the global economy.

 Congress comes back from vacation this month to a full plate of fiscal time bombs that will need to be defused in a very short period of time.

This is a fight that Americans have gotten used to in recent years.

But economist Nouriel Roubini warns that investors are becoming too complacent. In a new piece for Project Syndicate, offers an interesting metaphor to describe the Republican party’s stance on the budget:

… yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget. Read More