What sell-off? In a feat that has not been accomplished in more than a week, the S&P 500 on Wednesday notched a fresh record closing high.
The S&P 500 gained 0.25 per cent to 2,404, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.36 per cent to 21,012.4, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.44 per cent to 6,163.
Last week, equities markets took a blow from rising concern over the political fortunes of US President Donald Trump.
The former businessman’s election last year helped stoke sharp gains for equities on expectations that his policies will support corporate America. That enthusiasm has ebbed and flowed as Mr Trump has struggled to dig-out of numerous scandals.
Still, after Wednesday’s gains, the most recent bout of selling has been entirely reversed and then some. The S&P 500 index is up 7.4 per cent for the year.
Investors on Wednesday parsed through minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, which set the table for next month’s meeting, which could see it raise rates for the second time this year. Investors interpreted the news as dovish on margin, however, with the US dollar slipping 0.26 per cent against a basket of six peers.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 0.0298 per cent to 2.2502 per cent.
Less than a month ago a handful of the world’s policy makers gathered in Washington at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), no surprising headlines were run – but an obscure meeting and a discreet report launched exclusive signals for the next global economic crisis.
The panel, which included five of the most elite global bankers, was held during the IMF’s spring meetings to discuss the special drawing rights (SDR) 50th anniversary. On the surface the panel was a snoozefest, but reading beyond the jargon offers critical takeaways.
The discussion revealed what global central banks are planning for a future crisis and how the IMF is orchestrating policy for financial bubbles, currency shocks and institutional failures.
Why the urgency from the financial elites?
In his opening remarks Obstfeld identified, “There has been increasing debate over the role of the SDR since the global financial crisis. We in the Fund have been looking more intensively at the issue over whether an enhanced role for the SDR could improve the functioning of the international monetary system.”
“The official SDR is something we are familiar with but is there a role for the SDR in the market or a market SDR? What is the SDR’s role for the unit of account?”
Here’s the five most important signals from the world money panel, what they could mean for the international monetary system and the future of the dollar.
1. China Spars for the SDR Market
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 889.4 million to USD 369.887 billion during the week ended April 14, helped by increase in foreign currency assets, the Reserve Bank said.
They had declined by USD 956.4 million to USD 368.998 billion in the previous reporting week.
The reserves had touched a life-time high of USD 371.99 billion in the week to September 30, 2016.
Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major component of the overall reserves, surged by USD 881 million to USD 346.248 billion in the reporting week, RBI said.
Expressed in US dollar terms, FCAs include the effects of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies, such as the euro, pound and the yen, held in the reserves.
Gold reserves remained unchanged at USD 19.869 billion, the apex bank said.
The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund was up by USD 3.1 million to USD 1.446 billion.
India’s reserve position with the Fund, too, rose by USD 5.3 million to USD 2.323 billion, RBI said.
The Wall Street Journal recap of Yellen’s speech and remarks earlier today
- Ms. Yellen said the Fed was moving away from its efforts to revive a recession-scarred economy and focusing instead on maintaining the gains of the past few years
- That will change the central bank’s policy-making stance, she said
- Noting that Fed officials plan to continue gradually raising interest rates unless the economy begins to deteriorate
- The Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate will continue to move up to its long-term average, she said.
None of which comes a surprise, Fed communication efforts in past days have been on this message.
weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls data left bulls disappointed
- Fed funds futures imply 61% now see June rate hike from 70% yesterday
- 2year treasury yields hit 5 week low of 1.198%
- 30yr yields touch lowest since 18 Jan at 2.939%
- 5year yields 1.784% lowest since Nov 2016
So who thinks a rate hike is imminent now? Ok, so one swallow doesn’t make an summer but if the Fed is data dependent then this will have them scratching their chins at the very least
USD buyers returning though as I type as befits a market that’s chasing shadows with Syria and Trump/Xi talks also in the mix as I highlighted earlier.
GBPUSD back to 1.2428 after failing at 1.2450 again. USDJPY 110.44 from 110.16. EURUSD 1.0624 from 1.0667.
As we were then before the data came out but I hope you took the opportunity to take some profit or enter into fresh trades.
We can now close the case on who leaked that confidential, market-moving data to Medley global back in 2012: it was Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker, who previously was expected to retire in October, and is resigning immediately.
In a statement, Lacker confirms he revealed confidential FOMC information to Medley Global and that he lied to the Fed’s general counsel on at least two occasions. His full statement is below:
Statement Of Dr. Jeffrey Lacker
During the past 13 years it has been my privilege to serve as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. It has also been an honor to contribute to the development of our nation’s monetary policy as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”).
While transparency of the monetary policy process is important, equally important are the confidentiality policies that protect the internal deliberations of the FOMC and ensure the integrity of our financial markets. The Federal Reserve’s confidentiality policies seek to guide participants in maintaining the balance between transparency and confidentiality. The FOMC has had in place for many years two specific policies relating to confidentiality. the FOMC Policy on External Communications of Committee Participants (the “External Communications Policy-) and the Program for Security of FOMC Information (the “Information Security Policy”).
In 2012, my conduct was inconsistent with those important confidentiality policies. Specifically, on October 2, 2012, I spoke by phone with an analyst (“the Analyst”) concerning the September 2012 meeting of the FOMC. The Analyst authors reports on Federal Reserve matters on behalf of Medley Global Advisors (“Medley’). Medley publishes macro-economic policy intelligence for institutions such as hedge funds and asset managers and is owned by the Financial Times Limited.
PBOC open market operations today … well, the bank says none today. The Bank says bank liquidity is high.
By skipping OMOs in effect the bank has drained a net 80bn yen (maturing RRs)
CNY set at its highest against the USD for a month today.
RMB index: On Friday the CNY was set against its basket at 92.91, down 0.41 on the week
With a rate rise in the books investors get to hear from a handful of Federal Reserve speakers next week. On the geo-political front a hearing on Russia’s interference in the US presidential election and a meeting on combatting Isis take the spotlight.
Here’s what to watch in the coming days.
While the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates for the third time since the financial crisis, chair Janet Yellen reiterated that the pace of rate rises would be gradual and the so-called dot plot continued to signal just two additional rate rises this year. The move was interpreted by some as a dovish hike and Fed speakers could get the chance to refute that next week.
“Moreover, we’d also look for clarification on the addition of ‘symmetric’ in the press statement when it came to defining the inflation reaction function,” strategists at RBC Capital Markets said. “Our sense is that this was in an effort to put an end to inflation level targeting—also not a dovish development.”
Ms Yellen will deliver the opening keynote at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington on Thursday. Through the week, investors also get to hear from voting members of the monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee, including Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari — the only voting FOMC member to dissent at the March meeting and who has explained his rationale for the move on Friday.
On the economic data front, the calendar is fairly light but investors will keep an eye on fourth quarter current account deficit figures due Tuesday and durable goods orders slated for Friday.