Posts Tagged: GOLD

Gold: Tarnished value

24 February 2015 - 10:50 am

To its fans, gold has multiple attractions. Purportedly, it is an inflation hedge. But over the past decade there is little proof of that. There has been little inflation over the period. A rising dollar has capped the price of most (dollar-priced) commodities that might cause inflation, such as oil and copper. But when there has been inflation, the gold price has shown little correlation with it. There is a strong correlation between gold and real rates (when the latter rise, the former falls), reflecting the opportunity cost of holding yieldless gold. But that does not make the metal a hedge against inflation.

On to attraction number two: gold treads its own path, and is not swayed by the excesses of the equity or bond markets. That may be an attraction sometimes, but not recently. Since peaking in 2011 at more than $1,800 an ounce, the spot price has dropped to $1,200; meanwhile, world equity and bond prices touch record highs.

Attraction number three is rising Asian demand for the metal. According to the World Gold Council, China and India together account for more than 40 per cent of total gold consumption, including for investment. In these two countries demand fell by more than a quarter last year. In part, that is due to import limits put in place in India. But most of the volume decline occurred in China. Global demand has fallen for three years; this year that trend has continued in both these countries. >> Read More


India’s gold demand is set to rise upto 20% this year on potential increase in household savings following the government’s focus on poverty alleviation.

Global miners’ representative body the World Gold Council (WGC) forecast India’s full year gold demand between 900-1000 tonnes in 2015, a significant rise from the actual demand of 842.7 tonnes in 2015. India’s gold demand was reported at 974.5 tonnes in 2013.

“We estimate 21 million people will become net savers this year. Assuming that the average purchase by them would be one gram, another 210 tonnes of additional buying will come this year. Conservatively, we estimate India’s gold demand to remain between 900-1000 tonnes this year,” said Somasundaram PR, managing director (India), WGC.

After food and shelter, savings’ first preference is gold. In 2014, therefore, an estimated 8% of savings are estimated to have been gone into gold. In the last 10 years, gold has offered 17% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) returns. >> Read More


To say that Zimbabwe has not had much luck in its recent, post Robert Mugabe-goes-berserk, history with fiat money is putting it lightly.

But did you know that with gold trading at prevailing depressed prices, driven over the past several years not by physical demand but by paper supply, Zimbabwe is about to have another “money” moment, only this time not with fiat but with real money.

The reason: the same one why every so often we show the gold cost curve: because some miners simply can not continue operating if the “market” price of gold, with or without central bank and BIS intervention, is below their blended cost.  >> Read More

Bundesbank ships more gold back home

19 January 2015 - 15:43 pm

Germany shipped more of its overseas gold reserves back to Fft last year according to the Bundesbank’s  latest report published a short while ago

The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold last year. In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. “Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule,” said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard, today’s internationally recognised standard. “We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities,” said Mr Thiele.

According to its new gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank will be storing half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults from 2020 onwards. This necessitates a phased transfer to Frankfurt am Main of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris.

Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bank has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt am Main – 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York. This is equivalent to roughly 23% of the total quantity to be transferred. The following table gives an overview of the gold that has been transferred to date



Above is Daily Chart of GOLD SPOT


On 10th Jan ,We had Boldly written this :


Last Close : 27654

Our Subscribers —Knows from what level we are Bullish in GOLD ?Yes already Tons of Money Minted !

Yes ,Beautiful Inverse Head & Shoulder………….Just look at chart of MCX GOLD 

Now ,What to Expect ?

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Above is Daily Chart of GOLD SPOT 

Watch  $ 1230 level

Triangle Breakout above $ 1230………………….$ 1355 level ?

Yes ,Height of Triangle $ 125 


Height of Head  $ 71 

1230+ 71 =$ 1301 Target 

Short Term Support at $ 1210—1207 level !

101% More Will Update to our Subscribers ,Updated at 21:37/10th Jan/Baroda/India



Above is Daily CHART of GOLD SPOT

Above $ 1208 level ,Rally upto 1216—-1219 is possible.

Yes ,Above 1219……Watch BLAST upto 1227-1230 level.

Inverse Head & Shoulder Neckline @ 1230 level.

Head Height 70 points.

101% More Details ,MCX Levels to our Subscribers ,Updated at 20:35/30th Dec/Baroda/India


Exactly one month ago we observed that, as expected in the aftermath of the Netherlands’ shocking and still not fully-explained gold repatriation from the NY Fed, the amount of foreign earmarked gold on deposit with the Fed had just experienced a 42 ton withdrawal: the single largest outflow of gold held at the NY Fed in over a decade, going back all the way to 2001. This had brought the total amount of YTD gold withdrawals from the NY Fed to a whopping 119 tons: the most since the Lehman collapse.

However, because this total was insufficient to cover just the Dutch repatriation of gold from the NY Fed (which amounted to 122 tons), we knew there would be more activity when the November data hit. Sure enough, earlier today the Fed reported the total amount of earmarked gold (or gold “held in foreign and international accounts and valued at $42.22 per fine troy ounce; not included in the gold stock of the United States“) for the month of November: at $8.184 billion, this was a $60 million drop from the previous month (or it would be at the $42.22/ounce “price”; at market prices the value of the withdrawn gold is about $1.7 billion).

In actual tonnage terms, this means that in November some 47.1 tons of gold were withdrawn from the NY Fed, bringing the Fed’s total earmarked gold to just 6,029 tonnes: the biggest single monthly outflow going back to the turn of the century. This is also the lowest amount of gold held at the NY Fed vault located at 33 Liberty street (and just across from the even bigger vault located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza) in the 21st century.

>> Read More



Above is Daily Chart of GOLD SPOT

Below $ 1186 level……………………………….Our Target is 1169—–1163 level.

Now ,Trading at $ 1175 level.

Yes ,Details +Levels for MCX-GOLD known to our Subscribers ,Updated at 6:10/23rd Dec/Baroda/India


Gold prices could drop to $1,000 an ounce in 2015 as a strong US dollar is expected to mount further pressure on the precious metal.

As many as seven out of 10 analysts polled in a Kitco Gold Survey said they expected gold prices to fall to $1,000 an ounce in 2015.

More survey participants said it was possible for gold to drop to $1,000 given that the metal continued to trade below the 200-day moving average of $1,268.

US Global Investor’s CEO Frank Holmes told Kitco that noted economist Nouriel Roubini’s 2013prediction that gold will drop to $1,000 an ounce before the end of 2015 may be right because the level was “within the normal DNA of volatility of gold”.

The strong greenback will cause “prevailing pressure” on gold prices in 2015, Holmes added. Demand for dollar-denominated commodities such as gold typically weakens on a stronger greenback as it makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies, lowering its hedge appeal.

But Axel Merk of Merk Investments said the only scenario where Roubini’s call could be right was if investors see a “very hawkish” US Federal Reserve, adding that he did not think rate hikes will equate to a hawkish Fed. >> Read More

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.