Sat, 27th May 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “House of Lords” Tag

Trump Blocked From Addressing UK Parliament For “Racism And Sexism”

In a striking announcement by John Bercow, the speaker of the British House of Commons, Donald Trump is to be barred from giving a historic address in Westminster Hall, the British Parliament’s grandest and most prestigious hall.

Bercow announced he would not give the US President permission to speak in the 11th Century Westminster Hall when he makes a state visit. John Bercow slammed Trump for “racism and sexism”, his undermining of judges and his migrant ban. Bercow’s intervention is unusual because Speakers are expected to remain above Parliament’s partisan fray.

Upcoming Week :Watch for Abe visit, Brexit debate, US deficit and earnings

After the Federal Reserve meeting and US jobs report, attention pivots to geopolitics next week.

Here’s what to watch in the coming days.

Abe visit

Since taking office, Mr Trump has been seeking to renegotiate trade deals to deliver on his campaign promises to put America first. A bilateral trade deal with Japan would be viewed as a win for the Trump administration.

However, Wendy Cutler, who oversaw the US negotiations with Japan during the TPP, said a bilateral deal could prove tricky for Tokyo as it would mean revisiting sensitive issues such as currency, agriculture and cars that proved prickly subjects during negotiations with the Obama administration on the TPP.

Trade deficit

On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will drop its trade deficit report for December, and it’s expected that little will change from the previous month when it registered $45.2bn. The report will likely become a political football dropped into the midst of a furious debate over trade, as Mr Trump has vowed to renegotiate or reconsider long-standing partnerships and agreements including Nafta.

Mr Trump has already made noises about a border tax that could shake up US trade relations around the globe, and Republican lawmakers are weighing further changes to the tax code that could benefit exporters.

The top Five Economic releases/events for the Next week

For the week starting October 24 and ending October 28th

  1. US GDP (3Q)- Friday October 28th at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  The “advanced” look at the 3Q GDP in the US will be released on Friday, Oct 28th. The expectations are for a gain of 2.5% on an annualized basis.   The estimate from the Atlanta Fed is currently at 2%, while the New York Fed expects GDP to currently come out at 2.2%.  Both can be revised before next week.  Last quarter, the 2Q advanced reading estimate was for a gain of 2.5%. The actual number came in at 1.2% – well below estimates.  The GDP numbers do get revised as estimated data in the advanced release are published). The revisions to the 2Q numbers saw GDP revised down to 1.1% and then up to 1.4%.   The other thing to note about GDP is it is not a QoQ number but a quarterly number that is annualized.  That differs from some other countries that highlight the changes from quarter to quarter. 
  2. Australia CPI QoQ. Tuesday October 25 8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT Wednesday. The 3Q CPI is expected to rise by 0.5% while the YoY is forecast to increase by 1.1%.. The Trimmed mean QoQ change is expected to rise by 0.4% with they YoY at 1.7%. The trimmed mean is calculated as the weighted mean of the central 70% of the quarterly price change distribution of all CPI components
  3. Central Bankers speeches.  Tuesday October 25th. BOE Governor Mark Carney will ttestify about the economic consequences of the Brexit vote before the House of Lords economic affairs committee.  Carney’s testimony is scheduled to begin 10:35 AM ET/1435 GMT.  Also on Tuesday at 11:30 AM ET/1530 GMT, ECBs Mario Draghi iis due to speak about stability, equity and monetary policy at the DIW Economic Institute in Berlin.  On Monday October 24, BOC Poloz is due to testify before the House of Commons standing committee on finance
  4. UK GDP QoQ. Thursday, October 27th at 4:30 AM ET/0830 GMT. The QoQ Advance GDP estimate for the 3Q will be released with expectations for a gain of 0.3%  QoQ and 2.1% YoY. 
  5. US Durable Goods orders. October 27th at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT.  The US durable goods orders for the month of September are expected to rise by 0.1% (last +0.1%).  Ex-transportation  the  expectations are for a 0.2% gain versus -0.2% last month.  
Other key events/releaases

Brazilian Senate to Hold Vote on Rousseff Impeachment on Wednesday Morning

Brazil's suspended President Dilma Rousseff attends the final session of debate and voting on Rousseff's impeachment trial in Brasilia, Brazil, August 29, 2016Brazil’s Supreme Court President Ricardo Lewandowski had held consultations with senators and was ready to schedule the special session for the vote on 11 a.m. local time (14:00 GMT), the Globo news portal reported on Tuesday.

The portal added that if 54 senators voted for the impeachment, Rousseff would be removed from office, otherwise the impeachment would be terminated and she would resume the presidency. In May, the upper house of the Brazilian parliament voted 55-22 to start impeachment proceedings against Rousseff after she was accused of concealing the country’s budget deficit ahead of the 2014 election. Rousseff regards the impeachment proceedings as an illegal coup attempt. Rousseff has been suspended from office for 180 days. Vice President Michel Temer has being fulfilling the functions of the presidency during that period.

Australia on edge after close election , Turnbull and Shorten both confident of victory

The Australian  national election polling booths have now closed 2 July

  • PM Malcolm Turnbull and opposition Labour Party leader Bill Shorten both say they are confident of a victory but concede the result could be tight

Malcolm Turnbull ,the leader of Australia’s conservative Liberal Party-led Coalition dissolved both houses of parliament in May in a bid to oust  independents in the upper house Senate who had blocked his agenda, including company tax cuts.

It looks a very tight race to the wire and the likely threat of a hung parliament looms.

More, and live, coverage from ABC here

I’m sure our intrepid reporter Down Under will be along here over the week-end to update and assess the election result’s impact on the AUD and markets in general.

In the meantime I’m heading to France for a few days. Have a great, and restful, week-end everyone and thanks again for your fantastic support.

Aussie elections too close to call as polling closes