Posts Tagged: intraday highs

 

Moments ago white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel which means that the Cardinals of the Catholic church have elected a new pope on the second day of Conclave. The identity will be revealed shortly. Stocks take this as a bullish signal and hit intraday highs, and for the DJIA, new all time record highs. All is well in the world.

VATICAN TV

 

 

Between the Chinese ‘surprise’ RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week’s intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 – well above last week’s peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a ‘growing’ global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that “Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.” The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO’s $140 minimum and SocGen’s $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus – and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East ‘allies’ cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

• Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• ‘Sweet spot’ for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

It’s not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It’s that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a ‘now-or-never’ moment,” he said.

That’s what’s actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there’s a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they’re not very close to making a decision and that they’re also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians.”

On 15th Feb ,We had written about WTI CRUDE : http://bit.ly/wWls2G

On 8th Feb ,We had written about BRENT CRUDE :http://bit.ly/xL0EAC

 

Between the Chinese ‘surprise’ RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week’s intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 – well above last week’s peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a ‘growing’ global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that “Sanctions are all we’ve got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it’s hard to see how we don’t move to the ‘in extremis’ option.” The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO’s $140 minimum and SocGen’s $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus – and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East ‘allies’ cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely

• Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen
• ‘Sweet spot’ for Israeli action identified as September-October
• White House remains determined to give sanctions time

It’s not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It’s that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a ‘now-or-never’ moment,” he said.

That’s what’s actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there’s a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they’re not very close to making a decision and that they’re also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians.”

On 15th Feb ,We had written about WTI CRUDE : http://bit.ly/wWls2G

On 8th Feb ,We had written about BRENT CRUDE :http://bit.ly/xL0EAC

 

Italy undergoing a slow motion crash, with bank after bank getting halted, first Intesa, then Monte Paschi, and most recently, main bank Unicredit. The FTSEMIB is now down a whopping 5.5% from intraday highs, led by the financial sector which may or may not last the week absent another EFSF expansion as we have speculated before. Of course, should that happen, Italy becomes a liability and not a funder, meaning the proportional obligations of Germany and France will surge, just as we explained two weeks ago. And more bad news: the spread between the 10 year Italy – Bund just hit an all time wide of 349, +16 bps on the session, as Italy CDS are now trading 328, +12, and Spain is 9 bps wider to 374. Time for bailout #3, this time to rescue Italy, then Belgium and Spain, then France and the UK, until finally the Fourth Reich, in the darkness, shall bind them. 

General Italy

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Technically Yours,
Team ASR,
Baroda, India.