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Sun, 22nd January 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “Ivana Trump” Tag

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +95 points.

Stocks snapped their losing streak Friday as Donald Trump took the oath of office for president of the United States.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 95 points, or 0.5%, to 19,827 Friday, preventing what would have been the sixth straight down day in a row. The gains pushed the Dow back into the plus column for the year.

The Trump rally had been losing its gusto before the inauguration as investors worried that policy changes when the administration began might be less stimulative than hoped. All three major market measures, the Dow, the Standard & Poor’s 500index and the Nasdaq Composite, are down 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4%, for the week, respectively.

That’s why the strength Friday came as a relief. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 0.3% to 2,271, just shy of its record closing high of 2,276.98 notched Jan. 6. The Nasdaq composite index was up 0.3% to 5,555 as it moved back closer to its record close of ,5,574.12.

Despite Friday’s gains, it was overall a negative week for stocks as investors fretted over what Trump might say in his inauguration speech regarding trade and government spending. Investors have been trying to price in the positives of lower tax rates and fiscal stimulation in the form of government infrastructure projects but also the negatives of trade restrictions and tariffs.

Such uncertainty is a reminder to investors that trying to time this kind of change is perilous.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was stable at 2.47%. The recent rise in Treasury yields has moderated lately. Treasury rates hit their highest point over the past 12 months on Dec. 27 at 2.56%. Treasury yields have been generally rising since July 2016 as investors expect inflation to increase. The yield on the 10-year has intensified as investors prepare for President Trump’s government spending plans, which are likely to increase the country’s level of debt.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -72 points

The Dow Jones industrial average erased its gain for the year on Thursday, part of a pullback for stock indexes as Treasury yields continued their upward march.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 72 points, or 0.4%, to 19,732.40. That puts the Dow down about 32 points for the year and will makes this the fifth straight day of losses. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.4% to 2,263.69. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.3% to 5,540.08.

Four stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Stocks have slowed in 2017 following an electrifying jump higher since Election Day. Investors are waiting to see what a Donald Trump presidency will really mean for stocks. They’ve already seen the optimistic case, as shown in the nearly 6% jump for the S&P 500 since Donald Trump’s surprise victory of the White House, propelled by expectations for lower taxes and less regulation on businesses.

But on the possible downside, increased tariffs or trade restrictions could mean drops in profits for big U.S. companies.

Bond yields continued their march higher, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.47% from 2.43% late Wednesday. Yields have generally been climbing since Election Day on expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will spur more inflation and economic growth. The 10-year yield is still below its perch above 2.60% that it reached in mid-December, but it’s well above the 2.09% yield it was at a year ago.

Reports have shown that the U.S. economy has been improving recently, and the latest on Thursday showed encouraging signs for the housing and labor markets. The fewest number of workers sought unemployment claims last week in 43 years, a sign that corporate layoffs are subsiding.

Daiwa to launch ‘Trump-related’ mutual fund

Daiwa Asset Management is set to start operating a mutual fund that invests in stocks related to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s infrastructure investment policy. Daiwa will launch the product on Tuesday.

The open-end mutual fund — the first of its kind in Japan since Trump’s election victory in November 2016 — is likely to be made available to retail investors by the end of the month.

 The U.S. infrastructure builder equity fund, which invests in U.S. companies, will quantify how much each stock will benefit from Trump’s infrastructure policy, based on criteria such as sales ratio in the U.S. and the degree of obsolescence of the target infrastructure. The details of the portfolio will be determined by how much share prices are undervalued and how competitive the companies are.

The portfolio, comprising 30-50 companies — mostly in the construction, transport and materials sectors — will be adjusted as appropriate as Trump’s policy takes form.

Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion to overhaul the country’s aging infrastructure over the next decade.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed +99 points. 46 pts short to cross 20k;Nasdaq at new high

Stocks ended higher Wednesday — and the super-hot Nasdaq notched another new high — in a volatile session that saw sharp swings after President-elect Donald Trump met with the press in a news conference for the first time in six months.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 99 points, or 0.5% to 19,954.28, while the S&P 500 ended up 0.3% to about a point and half shy of its record closing high of 2276.98.

It was the seventh winning session in a row for the Nasdaq composite, which gained 0.2%. It notched a new closing high of 5563.65, a dozen points above the previous record set the day before.

Health care stocks got hit after Trump criticized the industry moving production overseas as well as the bidding process for drugs. Energy stocks continued their strength as oil prices headed higher.

The health care sector was the biggest loser among the S&P 500 sectors. Trump said the government has to create new bidding procedures for the pharmaceutical drug industry “because they’re getting away with murder.” The remarks sent the S&P health care sector down 1.7%. Several pharmaceutical companies slumped, with Endo International (ENDP) falling 9%, the biggest decliner in the S&P 500. Perrigo (PRGO) lost 7% and Mallinckrodt (MNK) tumbled 7%.

Energy stocks were the biggest winners as oil prices jumped. Benchmark U.S. crude rose rose $1.43, or 2.8%, to $52.25 a barrel in electronic trading. Shares of Exxon Mobil rose 0.8%.

Bond prices rose after Trump’s news conference, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury note down to 2.37% from 2.38% Tuesday.

Trade zones out, tough bargains in for 2017

A reversal in U.S. trade policy could make 2017 the year that efforts to build multinational trade zones crumble, returning the focus to tough, bilateral dealmaking.

In October 2015, officials from 12 nations including the U.S. and Japan gathered in the American city of Atlanta to ink the historic Trans-Pacific Partnership, confident of the dawning of a new age of trade governed by such high-level, multilateral agreements. Yet that dream lies all but dead just over a year later, not least due to Donald Trump’s presidential victory and his pledge to pull the U.S. from the agreement upon taking office Jan. 20.

 Many bilateral free trade agreements, which reduce or abolish tariffs and set rules for trade in goods and services between two nations, have been struck over the years. Multilateral agreements extend this notion to the regional level and improve security in the areas they cover, further greasing the wheels of commerce.

Yet Trump prefers his trade pacts one on one — the better to drive hard bargains, leveraging U.S. economic and diplomatic might to secure the most advantageous terms. Multilateral pacts involve far more careful compromise and require each nation to give and take small concessions rather than pushing for an unambiguous win.

Us first

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 40 points

Stocks closed slightly higher Monday   with technology and industrial companies rising but the Dow Jones industrial average once again was unable to breach the 20,000 mark.

The Dow Jones index, which closed last week at 19,843.41, has made several attempts to break through the 20,000 mark but each time it’s fallen just short. The index has rallied strongly since the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president amid hopes that the incoming administration will be kind to business and back more spending on such things as infrastructure.

“I would be surprised if we’re not trading above 20,000 before the end of the year,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. “The Trump rally has stalled a little in recent sessions but so far, I’m seeing few signs that we’re going to see the year out on a negative note.”

The Dow rose 39.65 points, or 0.2%, to close at 19,883.06. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 0.2% to 2262.53 and the Nasdaq composite added 0.4% to 5457.44.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid to 2.53% from 2.60% late Friday. That sent interest rates lower and affects the profits banks make from mortgages and other loans. Bank of America shed 1.1% and MetLife  sank 2%.

Government bond yields have climbed recently. Last week the yield on the 10-year note rose to its highest level in more than two years.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.1% while Germany’s DAX gained 0.2%. The CAC-40 in France was 0.2% lower.

Central Banker Sees “Scary” 2017

 Barron’s Asia: When you look ahead to 2017, what keeps you awake at night?

Amando Tetangco: Short term, the Fed rate hikes — the timing and the magnitude. Of course, this would be related to the policies that the new U.S. administration will adopt. Medium-to-long term, the retreat from multi-lateralism. That is related to the performance of the global economy – the major and various economies, and emerging markets like China.

“Scary stuff” – that’s not the kind of utterance one would expect to hear from a central banker, but in this interview posted on Barron’s Asia with Amando Tetangco of the Philippines, “scary” is just how the central banker defines the increasingly chaotic global environment. Between Donald Trump’s shock election, Brexit, Italians showing their prime minister the door and fallout from quantitative-easing programs, 2016 has been an unusually unruly year. Will 2017 be a kinder, gentler one? Sadly no, says the governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Barron’s Asia sat down with Tetangco in his Manila office to hear why “scary” days lie ahead.

Barron’s Asia: Many are so happy to see the back of 2016, a year of epochal political upheaval. It’s been a year when lots of financial relationships broke down, with messages from bond yields to stock prices to how oil prices affect markets going haywire. Is the worst over or are we in for rockier times in 2017?

Tetangco: I think it’s more of the latter. You mentioned politics. I think that’s a major consideration right now because it’s causing some uncertainty with this potential rise in populist policies – uncertainty because it is going to be difficult to frame economic policy when something isn’t clear. Among the important considerations in this regard would be Brexit. We don’t know yet how this is going to pan out.

Gross Echoes Gundlach, Says Trump Rally Is Misguided: “Move To Cash”

On the heels of Jeff Gundlach’s “there’s going to be a buyer’s remorse period” warnings yesterday, the other ‘bond king’ has raised similar fears that the Trump rally is overdone (as are the prospects for growth behind it). Putting aside the book-talking as their bond portfolios suffer, Gross echoes Gundlach’s “Trump’s not the wizard of oz” comments, noting that the next president faces serious structural headwinds and warns investors “should move to cash,” as any fiscal stimulus gains will be temporary at best.

As we noted yesterday, speaking to Reuters, Gundlach, who went “maximum negative” on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent and bottom-ticked what may have been a generational low in rates, said that markets could reverse the recent momentum in equities, and at the very latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration. 

The “new bond king” said that the strong U.S. stock market rally, surge in Treasury yields and strength in the U.S. dollar since Trump’s surprising presidential victory more than three weeks ago look to be “losing steam,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview.

“The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression – and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high,” Gundlach said. “There’s no magic here.”

Gundlach had warned last month that federal programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates and monthly payments are not positive for the “psyche of the middle class and broadly,” and supporters of defeated White House candidate Hillary Clinton are not in a mood to spend money.

Gundlach Turns Bearish Again: “Stocks Have Peaked, It’s Too Late To Buy The Trump Trade”

Having predicted the Donald Trump victory, and nailing the upturn in US Treasury yields as well as the concurrent stork market rally, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach has once again taken the other side of the trade after riding it for the past 3 weeks, and is now considerably less exuberant on Trumponomics.

Speaking to Reuters, Gundlach, who went “maximum negative” on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent and bottom-ticked what may have been a generational low in rates, said that markets could reverse the recent momentum in equities, and at the very latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration.

The “new bond king” said that the strong U.S. stock market rally, surge in Treasury yields and strength in the U.S. dollar since Trump’s surprising presidential victory more than three weeks ago look to be “losing steam,” Gundlach told Reuters in a telephone interview.

“The bar was so low on Trump to the point people were expecting markets will go down 80 percent and global depression – and now this guy is the Wizard of Oz and so expectations are high,” Gundlach said. “There’s no magic here.”

Gundlach had warned last month that federal programs take time to implement, rising mortgage rates and monthly payments are not positive for the “psyche of the middle class and broadly,” and supporters of defeated White House candidate Hillary Clinton are not in a mood to spend money.

There is going to be a buyer’s remorse period,” said Gundlach, who voted for Trump and accurately predicted in January the winner of the presidential election.

What happens next: “The dollar is going to go down, yields have peaked and will move sideways, stocks have peaked as well and gold is going to go up in the short term.”

Trump Warns US Companies There Will Be “Consequences” For Outsourcing Jobs

Emboldened by his “victory” with Carrier Corp, which agreed to keep 1,100 workers in the US instead of outsourcing them to Mexico in exchange for $7 million in tax incentives over 10 years, as part of his victory tour in Indiana, Donald Trump on Thursday warned that U.S. companies will face “consequences” for outsourcing jobs overseas.

“Companies are not going to leave the United States any more without consequences. Not going to happen,” the President-elect said on a visit to a Carrier Corp plant in Indianapolis cited by Reuters.


U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump speaks at event at Carrier HVAC plant in
Indianapolis, Indiana.