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Sat, 30th July 2016

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “lsap” Tag

BoJ Follows In China’s Foosteps, Defers To Fed On Easing

Disappointing the liquidity-starved masses, the BoJ wholeheartedly believes that this time it’s different and their economy remains more or less flat and shows signs of picking up leaving hope for another massive LSAP (and a disappointed SocGen) having to wait for the Fed to pick up the pieces of a global slowdown. The BoJ maintained the size of its asset-purchase fund, credit-loan program, and ZIRP noting that, via Bloomberg:

  • *BOJ SAYS NO ONE PROPOSED EXPANSION OF STIMULUS AT MEETING

It seems the Japanese are following China’s lead (since China’s economy posted a trade surplus on expectations of a deficit and following the biggest import surge since 1989, this means that the hard landing is delayed as the PBOC is far more concerned about the pockets of food inflation noted yesterday and as such will be far less willing to proceed with the easing everyone demands) and deferring to the Fed for the next global liquidity pump (remember its flow not stock so this is bad news for risk-on – as can be seen in AUDJPY, Oil, and Copper). Gold is so far enjoying this as one by one global central banks check to the Fed’s check-raise expectations.

No QE3; ZIRP Extended Thru 2014 As Jeffrey Lacker Objects – Full December-January Statement Comparison

Little of note in the statement: no QE3 explicitly in the form of LSAP, which an S&P over 1300 and crude at $100 made prohibitive. Instead the Fed is extending ZIRP through 2014, from 2013, which as commentarors, primarily Goldman had expected, and which means sub-3 year rates will never be above zero again. Our prediction for a €100 trillion 1 week MRO is not looking quite as insane anymore. Since this is incremental easing, the reaction in gold says it all.

Summary headlines via BBG:

  • FED EXPECTS TO MAINTAIN `HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE’ MONETARY POLICY
  • FED SEES `EXCEPTIONALLY LOW’ RATES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE 2014
  • FED TO KEEP REINVESTING HOUSING DEBT INTO MORTGAGE SECURITIES
  • FED SAYS INFLATION `SUBDUED’
  • FED SAYS HOUSING `REMAINS DEPRESSED’
  • FED REITERATES `SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS’

CDS: Blood On The Streets As Contagion Has Been Upgraded To Gangrene

If you think this morning has a September 12, 2008 smell and feel to it… You are right. Complete and total CDS bloodbath in sovereigns and fins means a global bailout may not be imminent, but the market sure demands it as contagion has been upgraded to gangrene. Bernanke has now officially blown it with the twist and Mr. Market demands a $1 trillion+ LSAP, or else…