In a little under two minutes, Nigel Farage sums up the utter farce that “the religion” that Europe has become. He explains, his fear is that what will break up the Euro, “is not the economics of it, but wholesale, violent revolution,” in the Mediterranean, and that is “all so unnecessary!” Speaking at Simon Black’s Offshore Tactics workshop, the so-called modern day Cicero goes on to point out that France’s Hollande is “the number 1 among idiots running countries around the world,” and worries that Merkel’s pending election means there will be more and more ‘tough talk and action’ as she shows the people she is in charge. Simply put he warns, alongside Ron Paul, that if you have money in European banks, “Get your money out,” because, “when the next phase of the disaster comes, they will come for you.”

The Iceland election and the formation of a new Italian government are important. An Austrian weekly is claiming that national central bank estimates that to wind down a nationalized bank by the end of this year as the EU is demanding would cost the government 14 bln euros or ~4.5% of GDP. We recognize this as potentially important, but not immediately a market factor.

That in private moments the French Socialists are critical of Germany and Merkel is a dog bites man story, even if the Financial Times thought it worthy of front page coverage over the weekend.   The tensions between the French Socialists and the conservatives are not new or unilateral.  No where in the FT’s coverage, for example, is one reminded that Merkel campaigned, as much as a German Chancellor could, for Hollande’s rival, Sarkozy.  Nor is there any reference to the recent German criticism of the weakness of the French government, with claims among other things that French finance minister had to be woken at a recent crisis gathering. >> Read More

With their economy appearing to slow dramatically, if the PMI and Ifo data is anything to go by, and a nation increasingly disavowed with the European project, it seems the ‘people’ are not amused. As MNI reports, a poll by Forchungsgruppe shows Merkel’s CDU/CSU support fading. Critically, with only 40% backing Merkel, and the ‘Merkel bloc’ down to only 44%, the opposition and more anti-Europe SPD party gained a point and shifted their ‘bloc’ vote to 48%. Given that the mainstream parties have excluded a coalition with the Left party, such results would allow only coalitions of Merkel’s CDU/CSU with the SPD or the Greens. This raises the question of whether Merkel becomes more hard-nosed in her treatment of European bailouts, cow-towing to her populist needs (especially as Euro membership remains the most popular ‘concern’ for Germans); or eases the pressure in the hope of a short-term juice of markets believing in joint-debt dreams into the election. We suspect the former, especially given the clear signals from the people as the ‘Alternative for Germany’ party gathers more headlines - if not representative votes.

and Euro membership remains the most pressing concern for Germans >> Read More

In what seems like a bow to his overlords in Berlin, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has unleashed a somewhat remarkable torrent of terrible realization and truthiness:

• *SPAIN PM SAYS EUROPE ECONOMY WORST THAN FORECAST THIS YEAR
• *SPAIN PM SAYS ALL EU COUNTRIES ARE REVIEWING GROWTH FORECASTS
• *SPAIN PM SAYS MUST TAKE DIFFICULT DECISIONS FOR COUNTRY’S GOOD
• *SPAIN PM SAYS EU COUNTRIES MUST ACCEPT TO GIVE UP SOVEREIGNTY
• *EU countries’ giving up sovereignty to the bloc is crucial for its future

In what may come as a shock to an otherwise quiet Germany, which has hardly seen any of the vocal (and actionable) “Euroskepticism” prevalent among its smaller peripheral neighbors, Handeslbslatt reports that a whopping 19% of Germans have said they would vote the anti-euro party Alternative for Germany (AFD). This means Bernd Lucke’s party, which appeared as if out of nowhere, has succeeded in taking Germany by storm, and is likely that his success and prominence will merely convert even more people on the fence about Europe’s future to those demanding a Deutsche Mark return. And while the AFD has yet to pose a direct threat to Merkel’s ruling CDU coalition which has 36.7% of the vote five months ahead of elections, recall that everyone ignored Beppe Grillo as a mere sideshow weeks before his blistering performance to nearly win the Italian election in February.

All that would take for another surge in the Euroskeptic’s popularity is another summer of economic discontent and contraction: precisely the kind that is shaping up for Europe for the fifth year in a row.

From Handelsblatt, Google translated: >> Read More

Putin’s face here is just perfect.

You can find a whole gallery of the photos (some NSFW) at HAZ.de.

There are many lessons and implications from the Cypriot crisis (we list 25 here). Among the most important is that conditionality is back, energetically, which is very important when considering the circumstances under which other, bigger, countries might access ESM or OMT. We believe, like BNP’s James Mortimer-Lee, that the market has been too complacent, seeing OMT and “whatever it takes” as unconditional – that’s wrong. A second lesson is that a harsher line is being taken by the core. This partly reflects more effective firewalls, so that core countries are more willing to “burn” the private sector, where doing so does not represent a serious systemic risk. Cyprus may not be a template, but we have seen enough to glimpse what the new pan eurozone bank resolution system could look like. Risk for certain classes of stakeholders in banks has risen. We are a long way from seeing the eurozone crisis resolved.

Via Paul Mortimer-Lee, BNP Paribas,

There are many lessons to be learned from the Cyprus bailout, and plenty of implications for how things may develop in the future. We list 25 here, but there are more.

 

 

Lesson 1: Do not underestimate the ability of the eurozone to do the right thing – after all the alternatives are exhausted;

 

Lesson 2: Eleventh hour deals can often lead to mistakes and have unintended consequences. The decision to haircut depositors under EUR 100k was a pothole the Troika fell into. It questioned the integrity of the EUR 100k deposit guarantee;

 

Lesson 3: The disappearance of Mario Monti from the scene has reduced the influence the South has on decisions about the future of the euro;

 

Lesson 4: There appears to be bailout fatigue in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland. Mrs Merkel is prepared to be tougher ahead of the election than many thought;

 

Lesson 5: The new Chair of the Eurogroup, Mr Dijsselbloem, seems to be a hardliner compared with his predecessor, Mr Junker from Luxembourg;

 

Lesson 6: Mr Dijsselbloem can sometimes be too outspoken and not sufficiently diplomatic. Beware future gaffes;

 

Lesson 7: The ECB is prepared to use the ultimate weapon – “no more money for your banks”. This is not exactly ejecting a country from the eurozone, but would amount to making it very difficult for it to stay in; >> Read More

of course you are.

• says solution is the right one and that those who caused the crisis are being made to pay

i.e. are you listening back home with an election coming up

Europe’s paymaster – that would be Germany for those who have not paid attention to events over the past four years – is not used to being snubbed. It certainly is not used to being snubbed by what every empty chatterbox and their kitchen sink will tell you is a “small and irrelevant” country (all the more so in the aftermath of last summer’s embarrassing defeat in its head on confrontation with the ECB, in which the Bundesbank showed that sometimes the best offense is a gracious retreat). It most certainly is not used to not being invited to discussions involving the future of its precious mercantilist European union, especially when said union may no longer exist as we know it in 48 short hours. And Germany is angry.

From Bloomberg:

 

As Russia spurned the island nation’s bid for a loan, Merkel told a closed-door meeting of legislators in Berlin today that she’s annoyed the Cypriot government hasn’t been in touch with the so-called troika of international creditors for days, according to a party official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the briefing was private. Cyprus’s decision to test Europe is unacceptable, she told them.

 

“We’re not ready to accept solutions that are full of wind,” Michael Fuchs, deputy parliamentary leader of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, said after the meeting. “I don’t think it’s appropriate to play poker in this matter, especially when you think that there’s a risk that two banks will become insolvent next Monday.” >> Read More

One of the most disturbing angles to the Cyprus bailout — wherein the government is being forced to tax bank depositors — is this idea that Berlin is calling the shots in Europe.

 According to multiple reports, Germany basically said: Tax your depositors, or you can leave the Eurozone. We’re not just writing you a big check this time, because you’re too small to really matter.

On the one hand you might say: Germany is writing the checks, so of course it can call the shots like this.

On the other hand, this look like German bullying causing a destruction of trust and wealth in the worst possible way.

Regardless of whether it’s good or bad, it’s clearly a message.

Citi‘s FX guy Steven Englander lists 6 lessons that Germany just sent the rest of Europe, particularly peripheral Europe.

1.     No free rides for anyone 

2.     Small country blackmail on contagion can be resisted 

3.     Narrow populism can face resistance from the countries writing cheques  >> Read More