Tomorrow, we get the first look at how the labor market is progressing in the second half of 2013 with the release of the July jobs report at 8:30 AM ET.
The July data are notable for two reasons.
First, many economists across Wall Street see the second half of 2013 (starting with July) as something of a “moment of truth” for the economy, so it will be important to see what the all-important nonfarm payrolls report has to say about the sort of second-half start the labor market is getting off to.
Second, and perhaps more applicable to financial markets, is the proximity of the July jobs report to the September FOMC meeting, upon conclusion of which Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to announce a reduction in the pace of monthly bond purchases it makes under its quantitative easing (QE) program.
If the numbers come in better than expected tomorrow, the bond market could be in for another rough day, as traders price in heightened chances that the Fed will actually begin to taper QE in September.
So, what’s expected tomorrow?
Market economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict…
- 185,000 nonfarm payrolls were created in the U.S. economy in July, down from 185,000 in June.
- Private payrolls created were 195,000, down from 202,000.
- Manufacturing payrolls rose by 2,000 after decreasing by 6,000.
- The unemployment rate edged down to 7.5% from 7.6%.
Earlier this week, ADP’s monthly employment report estimated that 200,000 private payrolls were created in the American economy in July. The number beat the consensus estimate of 180,000, and represented a slight increase from June’s upward-revised 198,000.
Below are excerpts from various previews of tomorrow’s jobs report. Read More