Fri, 23rd June 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report


Archives of “opinion poll” Tag

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approval rating plunges amid lingering school scandal

Support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has dropped below 50% for the first time in more than a year as respondents expressed dissatisfaction with his response to allegations of preferential treatment toward a conservative educator.

The cabinet’s approval rating plunged to 49% in a weekend poll by Nikkei Inc. and TV Tokyo, down 7 percentage points from May and 11 points compared with April. The government’s disapproval rating climbed 6 points to 42% — the highest since October 2015.

 This marks the Abe cabinet’s most serious setback in public opinion since that year, when legislation expanding the armed forces’ remit ignited a public debate on Japan’s commitment to peace.

Now, the prime minister is facing allegations of favoritism over plans to establish a veterinary school in a government-designated special zone for deregulation. The prospective school operator, Kake Educational Institution, is headed by a friend of Abe’s.

The government insists that all of the proper procedures were followed in approving the new school. But a purported memo describing the project as in line with “the prime minister’s wishes” — a document whose credibility the government had questioned — has been found at the ministry of education after a second internal investigation.

The ruling coalition’s move to cut short the upper house debate on anti-conspiracy legislation also seems to have contributed to the drop in support. Among other things, the recently enacted law makes it a crime to plot terrorist attacks. Nearly half, or 47%, of respondents support the law, which has raised concerns among civil liberties groups, while 36% are opposed.

The cabinet’s approval rating fell among both men and women. Only 24% of respondents unaffiliated with any political party expressed support for the government, down 5 points from the previous survey.

See the new French election poll, it’s similar to the old French election poll

Macron still seen as the winner in Elabe poll

  • Macron 23.0% (+0.5%)
  • Le Pen 22.5% (-0.5%)
  • Fillon 19.5% (+0.5%)
  • Melechon 19.5% (+0.5%)

What gets me about these polls is the lack of variance. They’re always so similar. Should they range around in the 2-3% margin of error?

In any case, Macron wins the runoff handily, no matter who he faces.

Trump, Hillary Tied In Latest ABC Poll; Trump Seen As “More Honest” For The First Time

The latest ABC / Washington Post poll shows a dead heat in the 2016 presidential race with just 6 days left until election day.  The tie comes despite a massive plunge in Hillary’s “trustworthiness” proving that her supporters are blindly loyal and/or ABC’s polling data is simply wrong.  That said, ABC points out that Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted by a margin of 54-41%…though we suspect a lot of that 54% would like to have their vote back after the latest FBI revelations.

On the particulars, the latest poll was fully conducted after the latest FBI revelations and included an 8-point sampling gap in favor of democrats.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 28-31, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,182 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.


Merkel’s CDU Stunned By Election Defeat To Anti-Immigrant Party In Her Home State

Last Thursday we previewed that in today’s regional election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the home state of Angela Merkel, she was looking at the unthinkable: losing and not just to anyone but to her nemesis, the anti-immigration AfD. This is what we reported: “According to the latest shock poll, released late on Wednesday, the AfD is leading the CDU by 23 percent to 20 percent, with the Social Democrats, who currently run the rural state in coalition with Merkel’s party, at 28 percent support. What’s more, according to Bloomberg the AfD’s recent history in regional votes suggests it will perform better on election day than predicted in polls.”

Sure enough, according to the first exit polls released moments ago, Merkel’s CDU has come in third, in line with expectations, and more importantly, behind the AfD, which is the only party to see popular support in the elections as all other major parties have seen an exodus in popularity

  • SPD 30.5 %, -5.1%
  • AfD 21 %, +21%
  • CDU 19 %, -4.0%
  • Linke 12.5 %, -5.9%
  • Grüne 5 %, -3.7%
  • NPD 3.5 %, -2.5%
  • FDP 3 %, 0.2%

Why The Just Released YouGov Poll May Have Sealed The Outcome Of The UK Referendum

Moments ago, when the latest YouGov poll came out and showed a modest lead of 51% to 49% for Remain (up from 44% for Leave and 42% for Remain as of June 19), showing a steep drop in the momentum of the Leave campaign…

and in the process pushing the FT poll tracker in “Remain’s” favor at 47% to 45%, up from 44% to 45%… 

3 Brexit polls : summary of results

Here are the 2 polls just out, in the order they hit:

  • Brexit poll: ORB 53 remain, 46 leave
  • Next Brexit poll – NatCen: 53% Remain, vs. 47% Leave
  • YouGov Brexit poll: 42 % Remain vs. 44% Leave
GBP on the ‘Remain’ winning results (the first two to hit) … a bit of a pop. And noe a bit of a dip down on the latest result (showing ‘Leave’ in front):

Hedge funds and banks commission Brexit exit polls

Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month.

By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling since George Soros bet against the pound when it crashed out of the then European exchange rate mechanism in 1992.

Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result.

The hedge funds are exploiting Electoral Commission rules that permit exit polls on the day of the referendum so long as they are not published until polls close at 10pm.

Polling companies are finding demand high for their private services on referendum day. “Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day. Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released,” said one pollster.

Another pollster said his firm was getting lots of calls from asset managers asking when their next research was coming out: “We are also being asked if we will do polls on the day. People in the City are wanting a head start.”

Almost Half of Germans Oppose Merkel Chancellorship After 2017 – Poll

The poll conducted by TNS-Emnid for the Bild am Sonntag newspaper revealed that 48 percent of the German nationals were opposed to her candidacy for the post of chancellor after 2017.

At the same time, 44 percent of those polled wanted Merkel to run for the next term in office.

The current chancellor enjoyed the support of the eastern German residents, with 55 percent of approvals. Moreover, German women, 46 percent, were also prone to support her candidacy, the public opinion research indicated.

The overwhelming majority of Merkel’s party fellows, 87 percent, claimed they supported her nomination, whereas 12 percent looked at such prospect critically, according to the poll.

The head of government’s policy on refugees was viewed as right by 40 percent of respondents, whereas 47 percent expressed their dissatisfaction with the approach to the migration issue.

A total of 579 individuals took part in the Emnid poll.


ECB to increase QE to €75bn per month – Reuters Poll

It’s two for the price of one today

Hot on the heels of the BOE poll here’s one for the ECB

  • Median 80% probability that the ECB act in Dec
  • Pollsters see deposit rate cut by 10bps to -0.30%
  • Will leave main refinance rate on hold at 0.05%
  • 36/46 says ECB policies have improved lending to businesses in Eurozone

I’m surprised that the probability of a Dec move is only 80%

Putin’s Approval Rating Hits 89.9%, Breaking Previous Record

putin-asrRussian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has hit a new high at 89.9 percent, according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center’s (VTsIOM) new poll published Thursday.

“The approval rating of Vladimir Putin’s activities has set a new record of 89.9 percent, breaking the previous record set in June 2015 [of 89.1 percent],” VTsIOM reported.

The pollster said that the most important factor in the high approval rating was due to Putin’s efforts in Syria, including airstrikes targeted at the Islamic State jihadist group.

Russia launched its operation in Syria on September 30, carrying out several hundred airstrikes and destroying much of the militants’ infrastructure.

Putin’s previous record beat the last year’s result of 86 percent and his June 2013 rating of 63 percent.

In April, the readers of Time magazine named Putin the most influential figure of 2015, beating all other world leaders to the top spot. The US media outlet has also named Putin the “Person of the Year” in 2007.