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Fri, 20th January 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “panic of 1907” Tag

Overnight US MARKET :Dow closed -59 points.

Investor skittishness over coming policies under soon-to-be-president Donald Trump just days before his inauguration put stocks in the red Tuesday and pushed the Dow down for a third straight session.

Also haunting the market was another weak day for bank stocks, a sector that had performed strong at the start of the so-called “Trump rally” after Election Day but is running into profit taking. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) were down nearly 4% despite posting its best fourth-quarter since the financial crisis, while Goldman Sachs (GS) fell 3.3% and Citigroup (C) tumbled 2.1%.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 59 points, or 0.3%, to 19,827, or roughly 175 points shy of 20,000. At its low point, the Dow was down more than 110 points.

Markets were reacting to Trump comments in the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the U.S. dollar is “too strong” and could hurt U.S. multinationals. The president-elect also questioned an alternative tax reform plan being discussed by Republicans in the House of Representatives. A strong dollar hurts sales and earnings of U.S. companies that do a lot of business abroad.

Trump’s comments, not unlike some of his tweets that have caught investors by surprise on individual companies, created fresh uncertainty about what policies will actually be enacted once Trump takes office after Friday’s inauguration. Trump’s latest comments were viewed as new information by Wall Street.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down almost 7 points, or 0.3%, to 2267.89, while the Nasdaq composite fell 0.6% to 5538.73.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.329%.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -43 points.

Stocks ended mixed Thursday as retailers dominated the news with Macy’s and Kohl’s both plunging following weak holiday-season reports that led the chains to cut their profit forecasts.

Still, the Nasdaq composite’s modest gain of 11 points, or 0.2%, was enough to notch a new all-time high. Settling at at 5487.94, it topped the old record by half a point.

The Dow Jones industrial average finished down 43 points, a 0.2% decline to 19,899.29. Losing 0.1% was the S&P 500, which settled at 2269 even.

nvestors were also focusing on upcoming U.S. jobs data following the publication of the minutes to the Federal Reserve’s last board meeting.

Private U.S. companies added 153,000 jobs in December, according to payroll processor ADP. That total was a bit lower than analysts expected and slightly slower than the pace of hiring for the rest of 2016. The government will issue its own hiring report on Friday.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed + 60 points.Now 58 points away to kiss 20k

Stocks climbed Wednesday as Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains in the new year and the Dow once again approached the 20,000 milestone.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 60 points, or 0.3%, to 19,942.16. The blue-chip index rose has come close to topping 20,000 several times in recent weeks but each time it gets near has pulled back. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite index gained 0.9%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are near their record closing highs.

Stocks maintained their gains following the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting that provided clues to why policymakers raised interest rates in December for only the second time since 2006 and forecast three rate hikes in 2017 instead of the two moves previously anticipated.

Fed officials said they might have to raise interest rates faster than anticipated to prevent rapidly falling unemployment and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal stimulus from fueling excessive inflation, according to minutes of the Fed’s December 13-14 meeting.

Benchmark U.S. crude was up 1.8% to $53.24 a barrel in New York. It lost $1.39 on Tuesday.

44 Years Ago, The Dow Crossed 1,000 For The First Time – Here’s What Happened Next

With all eyes desperately urging The Dow to cross 20,000 and prove that everything in the world of Trumplandia is awesome, we thought some reflection on another major milestone in the omnipresent Stock Index would be worthwhile…

As The New York Times reported 44 years ago… The Dow Jones industrial average closed above the 1,000 mark yesterday for the first time in history.

 It finished at 1,003.16 for a gain of 6.09 points in what many Wall Streeters consider the equivalent of the initial breaking of the four-minute mile.

“This thing has an obvious psychological effect,” declared one brokerage-house partner. “It’s a hell of a news item. As for the perminence of it — well, I just don’t know.”

The Dow finally put it all together, the peace rally, the re-election of President Nixon, the surging economy, booming corporate profits and lessening fears about inflation and taxes and controls and other uncertainties of 1973.

With such kingpin issues leading the forward surge, the market fed on its own momentum. The Dow forged past 1,000 at 1:30 P.M. and it kept gaining almost consistently until the final bell.

At 3:29 P.M., red light bars flashed on above and below each of the time clocks surrounding the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange. This was the traditional visual signal to show that one minute of training time remained. At the same moment, a bell began clanging on the speaker’s rostrum – the auditory warning.

Traders, brokers and clerks on the floor – aware that history was in the making – broke into cheers that lasted about 20 seconds. Some paper was tossed in the air and drifted down like confetti.

Several hundred persons on the floor then turned to face newsreel cameras grinding away on the member’s gallery, some brokers waving like fans at a football game.

An office broker, watching the stock tape from his desk downtown, murmured in wonderment: “There’s a sort of renewed confidence in the whole economic outlook.”

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -9 points ( 157 points to kiss 20000 )

Stocks lost steam Friday as the Dow failed in another attempt at topping the 20,000 mark for the first time ever.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost less than 0.1%, down 8 points to finish at 19,843.41. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite shed 0.4%.

After an initial jolt from the Fed’s interest rate hike decision this week, markets adjusted to the prospect of more increases that policymakers signaled were in store as they move to “normalize” interest rates. The Fed raised rates for only the second time in a decade and hinted three more hikes are on the way in 2017, rattling markets used to ultralow borrowing costs that have fueled a multiyear stock boom. The Fed’s move now shifts the focus from central bank policy to economic growth as the driver of stock market performance.

Bond yields gave up some of their big gains from the last few days.The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.58% from 2.60% late Thursday, putting at least a temporary halt to its strong rally since last month’s presidential election.

Fed Revises Reverse Repo Terms: This Is How It Will Implement The Rate Hike

As expected, in addition to raising the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps, the Fed similarly noted that it would revise the mechanics behind its reverse repo operations, raising the rate it charges on reverse repos by 25 bps to 0.5%, the actual means by which the Fed will hike rates for most market participants.

Here is the statement that the Fed released regarding the change in overnight reverse repos: 

During its meeting on December 13-14, 2016, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) directed the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York Fed), effective December 15, 2016, to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of ½ to ¾ percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (ON RRPs) at an offering rate of 0.50 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.

To determine the value of Treasury securities available for ON RRP operations, several factors need to be taken into account, as not all Treasury securities held outright in the SOMA will be available for use in such operations. First, some of the Treasury securities held outright in the SOMA are needed to conduct reverse repurchase agreements with foreign official and international accounts.1 Second, some Treasury securities are needed to support the securities lending operations conducted by the Desk. Additionally, buffers are needed to provide for possible changes in demand for these activities and for possible changes in the market value of the SOMA’s holdings of Treasury securities.

Taking these factors into account, the Desk anticipates that around $2 trillion of Treasury securities will be available for ON RRP operations to fulfill the FOMC’s domestic policy directive. In the highly unlikely event that the value of bids received in an ON RRP operation exceeds the amount of available securities, the Desk will allocate awards using a single-price auction based on the stop-out rate at which the overall size limit is reached, with all bids below this rate awarded in full at the stop-out rate and all bids at this rate awarded on a pro rata basis at the stop-out rate.

These ON RRP operations will be open to all eligible RRP counterparties, will settle same-day, and will have an overnight tenor unless a longer term is warranted to accommodate weekend, holiday, and other similar trading conventions. Each eligible counterparty is permitted to submit one proposition for each ON RRP operation, in a size not to exceed $30 billion and at a rate not to exceed the specified offering rate. The operations will take place from 12:45 p.m. to 1:15 p.m. (Eastern Time). Any changes to these terms will be announced with at least one business day’s prior notice on the New York Fed’s website.

The results of these operations will be posted on the New York Fed’s website. The outstanding amounts of RRPs are reported on the Federal Reserve’s H.4.1 statistical release as a factor absorbing reserves in Table 1 and as a liability item in Tables 5 and 6.

Overnight US Market :DOW Closed + 114 points.S&P 500 Up 15 points

The trek to Dow 20,000 continues.

It’s taken nearly 120 years to get close to this point as the Dow Jones industrial average came within 47 points Tuesday of its biggest milestone yet.

The race to 20,000 for the blue chip stock index, which began way back in 1896, picked up speed after Election Day on hopes that president-elect Donald Trump’s policies will stoke growth.

At its afternoon intraday record peak, the Dow was up more than 155 points, or 0.8%, to a high of 19,953.75, before pulling back slightly to close up 114.78 points, or 0.6%, to close at 19,911.21.

Since Election Day the Dow has surged about 9%, from around 18,300 . The Dow made history back during the Internet stock boom in 1999 when it first crossed the 10,000 mark.

Since then, the Dow has suffered through two brutal bear markets, the first in 2000-2002 following the dot-com stock crash and then 2007-2009 during the Great Recession.

Overnight US Market :Dow Closed +40 points

Stocks closed mixed Monday as the Dow hit a new all-time high and as oil prices jumped after several non-OPEC countries agreed to join the cartel in cutting output and as investors focused on interest rates. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped 6-day winning streaks and retreated from record highs.

Investors were also focusing on interest rates as Federal Reserve  policymakers meet this week and most economists expect the Fed to announce a rate hike at the conclusion of the 2-day meeting on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 39.58 points, or 0.2%, to a record close of 19,796.43, according to preliminary calculations. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.1% to 2256.96,  after rising in early trading to set a new intraday record. The Nasdaq composite index dropped fell 0.6% to 5412.54.

Energy stocks got a boost as the price of U.S. benchmark crude oil jumped 2.6% to $52.83 a barrel as oil-producing countries outside of OPEC agreed to reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day. That comes after OPEC countries agreed in November to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day.

Upcoming Week :Watch For Fed , Trump and BoE

With a December rate rise pretty much in the books, investors will turn their attention to signals about future moves when the Federal Reserve meets next week.

Here’s what to watch in the coming days.

Federal Reserve

“We do not expect a change in the dot plot from the September meeting,” Michelle Meyer, economist at Bank of America, said. “That said, the risks are asymmetric in that there is a better chance of a move higher than lower in the trajectory.”

And with central banks around the world now expecting the baton to pass from monetary to fiscal policy, investors will also watch for her remarks on proposals ranging from tax reform to deregulation. “It is too early for the Fed to change its outlook based on Donald Trump,” Alan Levenson, Chief Economist at T. Rowe Price, said. “The Fed won’t talk about Mr Trump and fiscal policy and not just during the press conference, but also during the meeting, [as] that could show up in transcripts.”

Instead, most expect Ms Yellen’s Congressional testimony from November to serve as a blueprint. She is expected to urge lawmakers to focus on boosting productivity and to note the importance of regulatory reforms in helping stave off another financial crisis.

Bank of England

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -21 points

Stocks ended mixed Friday after news that the jobless rate has plunged to a nine-year low.

Banks slipped after a huge rally over the last few weeks. Bond prices rose after a string of steep declines, sending yields lower. The Dow Jones industrial average, which closed at a record high a day ago, is down slightly.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.1%. Goldman Sachs, which closed at a nine-year high Thursday, was responsible for the entire loss as it fell 1.5%.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was fractionally higher. The Nasdaq composite ended 0.1% higher.

U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in November as hiring remained steady. However, fewer people looked for work and hourly wages slipped. The results cemented market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. A very weak jobs report would have the last thing that might have stopped the Fed from raising rates.