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Fri, 24th March 2017

Anirudh Sethi Report

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Archives of “petroleum” Tag

US to ban large electronic devices on flights from 8 Middle Eastern nations

Airline passengers traveling from eight Middle Eastern nations, including Jordan and Egypt, will be barred from carrying large electronic devices into the main cabin under new regulations from the Trump administration.

The new rules, which come into effect on Tuesday, also apply to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to a US official. Passengers from the eight countries will have to check laptop computers and other large devices, such as tablets, into the hold on all flights bound for airports in the US. But the restrictions will not apply to flights leaving the US for the same countries, according to the official, who requested anonymity.

The move marks the latest attempt by the Trump administration to tighten security after Mr Trump vowed during the presidential race to do more to tackle terrorism. It comes one week after his administration issued a revised travel ban that temporarily bars citizens of seven largely Muslim countries from entering the US. The revised order, like the first one, has been blocked by the courts, preventing implementation for the time being.

Overnight US Market :Dow closed -8.50 points.Nasdaq Unchanged

Nasdaq unchanged.  Dow down about -0.04%

The S&P index is ending the day down about -0.20% on the day to 2273.50. The high reached 2379.55. The low 2369.66.
The Nasdaq was unchanged at 5901.50. The high reached 5915.12. The low 5888.
The Dow was down about 8.5 points to 20906. The high reached 20955. The low extended to 20885.
In other markets:
  • 2 year yield fell -2.6 bp to 1.288%
  • 5 year yield fell -3.1 bp to 1.986%
  • 10 year yield fell -3.7 bp to 2.462%
Spot gold is up $5 to $1234.39. The high reached 1235.78. The low 1229.15.
WTI Crude oil is trading at $48.21, down -$0.57
The snapshot of the major currencies shows the NZD is the strongest while the GBP is the weakest (PM May will trigger Article 50 on March 29th). The USD was mixed with the dollar gaining against the GBP. It was down against the AUD and NZD and little changed against the other major currencies.

Oil Shorts Soar By 2nd Most In History As OPEC Hope Fades

During a week that saw WTI crude prices erase all post-OPEC-production-cut-deal gains, after the Saudis admitted ‘cheating’ (but rapidly back-pedalled), oil speculators added almost 80,000 contracts to their short positions – the 2nd most in 34 years.

This surge in shorts reduced the massive record net long crude positioning by the 2nd most in history – but clearly it remains extremely one-sided still…

Market Doubts of Three Fed Hikes This Year Caps Dollar

Bringing forward expectations of a Fed hike from May-June to March was worth something for the dollar, but to get more now, the market may need to recognize the risk of three (or more) hikes this year.  With the strong February jobs growth and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in hourly earnings, rarely does the market’s confidence in an event surpass current expectations for a hike on March 15.
However, the market sees around a one-in-three or a one-in-four chance of a third hike this year. The risks for the updated forecasts from the Federal Reserve seem asymmetrically tilted higher, more rate hikes than fewer by more members.  The hawkishness of regional presidents may be underestimated.  The data and the global climate are conducive for expediting the normalization process.  The hawks will likely feel vindicated by recent developments and may press their case with more vigor.
The focus of the Fed has arguably shifted.  Previously, the issue was whether the data would confirm that the economy was evolving toward the Fed’s targets.  It did.  Rather than focus on the data points per se, officials appear more confident of the direction and resilience of the economy and prices.  They now are looking for opportunities, which helps explain the campaign to prepare the market for the March 15 move.
Still, the dollar’s technical tone has deteriorated, and the risk is on the downside over the next several sessions.   Our working hypothesis is that the dollar’s recovery that began in early February against most of the majors ended and a correction has begun,   For the Dollar Index, this means potential toward 100.75 and possibly 100.40.  The former is the 50% retracement of that rally and coincides with the 100-day average (~100.80). The latter is the 61.8% retracement.  Alternatively, if the Dollar Index has carved out a double top near 102.25, the neckline is around 101.20 (38.2% of the rally is ~101.10).  On a break of the neckline, the measuring objective is 100.
The euro’s pre-weekend rally saw it surpass the 50% retracement objective of its decline from the February 2 high near $1.0830.  That retracement was around $1.0660, and the 61.8% retracement is closer to $1.0700.  The euro’s five-day moving average crossed above the 20-day average for the first time in a month.  The single currency may be tracing out a double bottom at $1.05  The neckline is $1.0630.  The measuring objective is around $1.0760.

Overnight US Market :Recover into the close but close near unchanged levels

The US major indices are ending the day with smalll gains.

  • S&P index +1.89 points or 0.08%
  • NASDAQ composite index +1.257 points or +0.02%
  • Dow industrial average +2.46 points or +0.01%
In other markets:
  • Spot gold $1202.13, down $6.20 or -0.51%
  • WTI Crude oil trading at $49.74. That is down $-.54 or -1.07%. The price has bounced off key support at $48.68/72 area where the 200 day MA and 50% retracement was found.
IN the US debt market
  • 2-year note 1.366%, +1.2 basis points
  • 5-year note  2.126%,, +3.3 basis points
  • 10 year note 2.562%,, +3.6  basis points.. The high in the 10 year reached 2.605% just short of the December high of 2.61%
  • 30 year bond 182%, +3.3 basis points

Weekly US crude oil inventories +8209K vs +2000K expected

Weekly inventory and production data from the Department of Energy

  • Prior was +1501K
  • Inventories have risen for 9 straight weeks
  • Gasoline -6555K vs -1987K expected
  • Distillates -2676K vs -1000K expected
  • Production +0.6% w/w to 9.088mbpd

The large increase in oil inventories was largely offset by bid draws in gasoline and distillates. If anything, this report is less bullish than the API numbers. It took a moment, but crude jumped about 20-cents on the headlines.

Here’s what API reported late yesterday:

  • Crude +11600K
  • Gasoline -4960K
  • Distillates -2900K

Inventories are nearly 10% higher than they were at this time last year.

There are no free rides for non-OPEC producers taking advantage of OPEC cuts

Saudi energy minister on the wires

  • Saudi output is below 10mbpd
  • There is cause for cautious optimism in the oil market recovery
  • Fundamentals are improving
  • There are concerns that worldwide investment in energy is falling behind supply development needs
  • OPEC is monitoring markets to evaluate the results of the agreement and will act later
  • Peak oil demand projections are misguided and say they threaten needed investment

He’s speaking at the CERAWeek conference.

Titans of oil world meet in Houston after two-year price war

The biggest names in the oil world come together this week for the largest industry gathering since the end of a two-year price war that pitted Middle East exporters against the firms that drove the shale energy revolution in the United States.

When OPEC in November joined with several non-OPEC producers to agree to a historic cut in output, the group called time on a fight for market share that drove oil prices to a 12-year low and many shale producers to the wall.

Oil prices are about 70 percent higher than they were the last time oil ministers and the chief executives of Big Oil met in Houston a year ago at CERAWeek, the largest annual industry meet in the Americas.

The ebullience as both sides enjoy higher revenues will be a welcome relief from the gloom of a year ago, near the depths of the price war.

“The oil market has been rebalancing and the powerful forces of supply and demand have been working,” said Dan Yergin, vice chairman of conference organizer IHS Markit and a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian.

“The mood will be different this year.”

Oil – overnight piece says Saudi the biggest OPEC cutters

Just doing a bit of a catch-up, this from Bloomberg overnight on the OPEC supply cuts:

  • Saudi Arabia continued to lead OPEC’s efforts to cut production
  • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ production fell to 32.17 million barrels a day in February, a 65,000 barrel-a-day drop from January
  • Increases from Iran, Nigeria and Libya (permitted under the terms of the agreement)
  • OPEC’s total output remains 415,000 barrels a day above the target set out in the Nov. 30 deal
  • The group as a whole is only about 70 percent of the way toward the production level it deemed necessary to eliminate a global oversupply and boost prices

 

RBOB Slides After Surprise Gasoline Inventory Build; New Record Glut In Crude

After a volatile day of White House rumors and denials, and OPEC headlines, WTI and RBOB ended the day lower ahead of tonight’s API data which showed a slightly smaller than expected crude build (+2.5mm against expectations of +3mm). However RBOB prices tumbled after an unexpected build.

API

  • Crude +2.502mm (+3mm exp)
  • Cushing +544k
  • Gasoline +1.84mm (-1.5mm exp)
  • Distillates -3.73mm

While crude built again (the 8th week in a row), it was the swing back to a build in gasoline that is most notable…