Does this trade fit my chosen trading style? Whether it is: swing trading, momentum, break out, trend following, reversion to the mean, or day trading? Does this trade fit into the parameters of who I am as a trader, or is it just based on my own fear or greed?
- How big of a position do I want to trade? How much capital am I going to risk? Am I limiting my risk to 1% or 2% of my trading capital? Knowing where my stop will be how big should my position size be to limit my risk?
- What are the odds of my risk of ruin based on my capital at risk?
- Why am I entering the trade here? What is the entry trigger to take the trade? Is this a quantified entry on my trading plan?
- How will I exit with a profit? A price target or trailing stop? >> Read More
Posts Tagged: price target
F1Q14 PAT of Rs32.4bn was supported by stable NIMs, high capital gains and lower provisions despite a sharp spike in NPLs (coverage fell). But,these are unsustainable, in our view. Higher costs and provisioning will make it tough to deliver headline earnings. Stay Underweight.F1Q14 headline earnings were better than MSE: PAT (-14% YoY) was 6% above on lower provisions. Core PPoP (adjusted for longevity-related pension costs) was
3% below our estimate. Impairments spiked to 7.5% of loans (annualized). Coverage fell to 51% from 57%.Average PAT over the next three quarters is unlikely to be materially >Rs20bn: This will be driven by weaker asset quality (51% coverage and huge impaired loan formation); likely fall in NIMs (falling spreads/LD ratio); rising opex and higher bond yields (MTM losses of ~Rs13bn according to management).
Balance sheet is weakening faster than expected:
Impaired loans rose to 8.6% of loans (7.7% last quarter),with deterioration across all sectors despite stable macro conditions in F1Q14. Given sluggish growth and rising rates, asset quality is likely to get worse. Low coverage at 51% of NPLs (even lower on impaired loans) will keep provisioning higher for longer. Impaired loans stock will keep rising as ability to write off NPLs will be limited – we now project 10% in FY14 and 11.5% FY15 (vs. 9.3% and 10.5% previously). Capital (common equity Tier 1 ratio) at 8.9% in this context is low. >> Read More
The Bank of Japan Thursday raised its assessment of local economies in eight out of nine regions, adding to signs of a recovery in the country’s economy as solid domestic demand takes hold.
“Domestic demand has increased in its resilience on the back of an improvement in household and business sentiment, while overseas demand is heading toward a pickup,” the central bank said in its quarterly regional economic report.
In the previous report in April, the central bank raised its view of all nine regions. >> Read More
If you are just randomly trading what you like with no real underlying system, method or planning then unfortunately your odds of success in the long term are slim. Trading a winning methodology is what creates an edge in trading.
Consistently trading a robust system or methodology enables you to trade in a way that historically wins, controls risk, and does not bring your ego and your emotions into your trading in a destructive way.
Ten questions to ask yourself before every trade:
- Does this trade fit my chosen trading style? Whether it is: swing trading, momentum, break out, trend following, reversion to the mean, or day trading?
- How big of a position do I want to trade? How much capital am I going to risk? Am I limiting my risk to 1% or 2% of my trading capital?
- What is my risk of ruin based on my capital at risk?
- Why am I entering the trade here? What is the trigger to trade?
- How will I exit with a profit? A price target or trailing stop? >> Read More
Adam Grimes, CIO at Waverly Advisors told Business Insider that market participants have stop orders beyond visible support points in the market.
“[The sell off in mid-April] was quite likely driven by a cluster of these orders, and we believe that more are probably lurking lower,” he said.
A stop order is an order to sell a position if price fall to a certain level.
Here’s more from our conversation with Grimes. >> Read More
And just to add one more embarrassing detail for them, while section 4 discusses “Japan’s recent policy actions,” not only does Canada’s finance minister James Flaherty believe they “didn’t discuss the Japanese Yen,” but Japan’s Kuroda believes, comments on ‘misalignments’, “were not meant for the BoJ.”
- *KURODA SAYS TOLD G-20 JAPAN’S EASING TO ACHIEVE PRICE TARGET
- *ASO SAYS G-20 UNDERSTANDS BOJ EASING IS TO END DEFLATION
- *KURODA SAYS IT WAS GOOD JAPAN WON UNDERSTANDING FROM G-20
- *KURODA SAYS G-20 UNDERSTANDS EASING NEEDED FOR PRICE STABILITY
- *KURODA: G-20 AGREEMENT GAVE HIM CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE EASING
- *ASO SAYS BOJ EASING IS IN LINE WITH WHAT G-20 AGREED
It seems “Forward Progress” is an important subliminal phrase…
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
Washington, 18-19 April 2013 >> Read More
- New BOJ head Kuroda spoke before the Japanese parliament today. He did not say anything of surprise to the markets, reiterating various points:
- BOJ will do whatever it takes to end deflation
- BOJ has not been buying enough in terms of size, type of asset
- Will consider extending bond maturities – increasing purchases of long term bonds
- Will consider scrapping banknote rule
- Hard to set nominal GDP as policy target
- Wants to Achieve BOJ’s 2% Price Target in Two Years
- Kuroda will now appear before Japan parliament’s upper house on March 28
- South Korea Q4 GDP revised lower to +0.3% q/q (vs. +0.4% expected)
- Cyprus banks to remain closed until Thursday (28 March)
- New Zealand February trade balance came in much above expectations at +414m (vs. -12m expected)
- New Zealand February exports 3.91bn (vs. 3.55bn expected)
- New Zealand February imports 3.49bn (vs. 3.58bn expected)
- RBNZ said it is reviewing housing loan capital adequacy requirements
- RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave a speech today: “Financial Regulation:Australia in the Global Landscape”; there was nothing of relevance to monetary policy or FX >> Read More
The Indian-based mining company came under pressure after Société Générale argued the market underestimates the regulatory problems facing some of its businesses.
Abhi Shukla, an analyst at Société Générale, said: ” our analysis indicates that Vedanta’s Indian iron ore production is likely to be much lower going forward due to the imposition of production caps.”
He added: “We don’t see Vedanta obtaining a bauxite mining licence at Niyamagiri unless the Indian government substantially changes the Forest Rights Act 2006 [which is unlikely].”
Also, Mr Shukla said he does not expect a major turnaround in Vedanta’s power business despite a potential improvement in transmission capacity given coal shortages and low merchant power prices in India.
Another issue for Mr Shukla is he thinks the market is probably underestimating the tax rate and minority charge at the company given the complex nature of the operations. >> Read More
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin is bumping up the bank’s year-end S&P 500 price target to 1625 from 1575.
In a note to clients this morning, Kostin writes, “The 2013 US equity market story is becoming one of improving business activity accompanied by increased CEO confidence,” pointing to recent positive surprises in employment, manufacturing, and retail sales data.
Accompanying all of that is a forecast for 2 percent GDP growth in 2013 and 2.9 percent growth in 2014, with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 2.5 percent by the end of the year and 3.0 percent by the end of 2014.
“The ‘sequester’ has begun and the federal government is still functioning,” says Kostin.
Below is Goldman’s thesis: >> Read More
- China February CPI 3.2% y/y (vs. 3.0% y/y expected)
- China February PPI -1.6% y/y (vs. -1.5% y/y expected)
- China February Industrial Production 9.9% y/y (vs. +10.3% y/y expected)
- China February Fixed Assets Investment 21.2% y/y (vs. +20.7% y/y expected)
- China February Retail Sales 12.3% y/y (vs. +15.0% y/y expected)
- China February New Yuan Loans 620bn (vs. 700bn expected)
- China February M2 money supply +15.2% (vs. +14.9% expected)
- Reuters: China data show uneven economic recovery, policy dilemma
- Australian state election result highlight federal government’s electoral woes ahead of September poll
- German finmin Schaeuble thinks the UK leaving the EU would be a catastrophe
- German Economy Minister Roesler: Will fight attempts to weaken the euro
And from Monday:
- New Zealand February card spending (retail) +0.8% m/m (vs. +0.5% expected)
- Data: New Zealand February card spending (total) +0.8% m/m (vs. +0.4% prior)
- Japan February money stock M2 +2.9% y/y (vs. +2.7% expected)
- Japan February money stock M3 +2.4% y/y (vs. +2.3% expected)
- Japan January Machine Orders -13.1% m/m (vs. -1.7% expected). This is the first fall in 4 months.
- Japan January Machine Orders -9.7% y/y (vs. -0.3% expected)
- February Lloyds TSB consumer/employment confidence -44 (vs. -45 prior) >> Read More