And just to add one more embarrassing detail for them, while section 4 discusses “Japan’s recent policy actions,” not only does Canada’s finance minister James Flaherty believe they “didn’t discuss the Japanese Yen,” but Japan’s Kuroda believes, comments on ‘misalignments’, “were not meant for the BoJ.”
*KURODA SAYS TOLD G-20 JAPAN’S EASING TO ACHIEVE PRICE TARGET
*ASO SAYS G-20 UNDERSTANDS BOJ EASING IS TO END DEFLATION
*KURODA SAYS IT WAS GOOD JAPAN WON UNDERSTANDING FROM G-20
*KURODA SAYS G-20 UNDERSTANDS EASING NEEDED FOR PRICE STABILITY
*KURODA: G-20 AGREEMENT GAVE HIM CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE EASING
*ASO SAYS BOJ EASING IS IN LINE WITH WHAT G-20 AGREED
It seems “Forward Progress” is an important subliminal phrase…
Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors
The Indian-based mining company came under pressure after Société Générale argued the market underestimates the regulatory problems facing some of its businesses.
Abhi Shukla, an analyst at Société Générale, said: ” our analysis indicates that Vedanta’s Indian iron ore production is likely to be much lower going forward due to the imposition of production caps.”
He added: “We don’t see Vedanta obtaining a bauxite mining licence at Niyamagiri unless the Indian government substantially changes the Forest Rights Act 2006 [which is unlikely].”
Also, Mr Shukla said he does not expect a major turnaround in Vedanta’s power business despite a potential improvement in transmission capacity given coal shortages and low merchant power prices in India.
Another issue for Mr Shukla is he thinks the market is probably underestimating the tax rate and minority charge at the company given the complex nature of the operations.>> Read More
Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin is bumping up the bank’s year-end S&P 500 price target to 1625 from 1575.
In a note to clients this morning, Kostin writes, “The 2013 US equity market story is becoming one of improving business activity accompanied by increased CEO confidence,” pointing to recent positive surprises in employment, manufacturing, and retail sales data.
Accompanying all of that is a forecast for 2 percent GDP growth in 2013 and 2.9 percent growth in 2014, with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 2.5 percent by the end of the year and 3.0 percent by the end of 2014.
“The ‘sequester’ has begun and the federal government is still functioning,” says Kostin.
The Bank of Japan rejected a proposal for keeping interest rates virtually at zero until a price target is in sight and refrained from adding to stimulus, ahead of leadership changes next month.
The central bank kept its asset purchase fund unchanged at 76 trillion yen ($813 billion), according to a BOJ statement released in Tokyo today. That was in line with analysts’ forecasts. Policy makers rejected board member Ryuzo Miyao’s call for the pledge on rates.
A report today showing that gross domestic product shrank for a third straight quarter strengthens Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s case for boosting fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter deflation and revive the world’s third-biggest economy. BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and two of his deputies are set to step down on March 19, leaving behind a global debate on whether Japan’s government is triggering an excessive depreciation in the yen.>> Read More
Back in July 2008, just before all hell broke loose and the S&P was trading in the upper 1,200s, everyone’s favorite permabull, JPM strategist famously reiterated his S&P 500 price target for the end of 2008: 1450. Two months later Lehman filed for bankruptcy, and 4 months later the S&P closed 2008 some 40% lower than said price target. Another two months later and anyone who had listened to Tom Lee lost 50% of their investment.>> Read More
Here it is folks, your ultimate guide to how Wall Street is reacting to last night’s Apple earnings catastrophe.
Capitulation Process Seems Well Underway: “It seems the reaction to this EPS report is universally negative – especially since AAPL gave subdued guidance and changed the way it does it (they really mean it). We believe a capitulation process is underway – and while painful – it is healthy since the loftiest expectations should be reined in quite a bit. This spring, Apple should be readying a bevy of new products and services – and when the builds for these products become known – shares may act a lot better. We have seen sentiment turn quickly before with other leaders like Facebook (in 2012) and Google (in 2011). While this recent sell-off and Apple’s execution of late has tested our patience, we will evaluate Apple from here based on whether these products and services create the kind of excitement we are used to. Maintain OW rating.”
Two key (interrelated) questions related to Apple are 1) whether the company has lost its competitive edge and 2) what the right margin profile is longer term. We believe Apple maintains its premium brand image (e.g. iPhone ASP) but needs to adapt to marketplace demands and abandon misperceptions about “one-handed ease of use” (yes many like it, but many don’t) by broadening its iPhone lineup – the same way it abandoned its 7” tablet stance and delivered a best-in-class product. We believe margins with multiple phone form factors and a lower-end offering for emerging markets could be structurally lower, but this is very much discounted in the share price as discussed below. We lower F13/F14 EPS from $48.95/58.38 to $44.79/51.71 reflecting lower iPhone share, mini cannibalization, and lower gross margin. We cut our price target from $680 to $575 reflecting lower estimates and risk associated with its product transition. BUY maintained.
Three steps to a recovery: none coming imminently, patience required. First, a new product cycle (we expect a high-end iPhone refresh and lower end iPhone later in 2013). Second, increased carrier expansion: while this is clearly happening slower than we thought, we still believe it’s likely over 12 months. Third, increased cash distribution: Apple ended the quarter with $137bn of net cash some ~30% of market cap and 31% onshore so the capacity to distribute exits. While all these catalysts are plausible, none are imminent in our view, meaning patience is required.>> Read More
Here are seven lessons from Jesse Livermore who is considered by many as one of the greatest traders who ever lived.
Lesson Number One: Cut your losses quickly.
As soon as a trade is contemplated, a trader must know at what point in time he’ll be proven wrong and exit a position. Risk management should dictate the size of the trade and how much you can lose. Deciding where to exit when a position is going against you is not a winning strategy.
Lesson Number Two: Confirm your judgment before trading a larger than average position.
Livermore was famous for throwing out a small position and waiting for his thesis to be confirmed by it going in his favor. Once the stock was traveling in the direction he desired, Livermore would maximize his trading size for out sized wins.
There are many ways to add to a winning position — pyramiding up at key pivot points, building a position as the trade goes in your favor, being 100% in no more than 5% above the initial entry — but the take home is to buy in the direction of your winning trade – never when it goes against you. Never add to a losing position.
Lesson Number Three: Watch leading stocks for the best action.
Livermore knew that trending issues were where the big money would be made, and to fight this reality was a loser’s game. Shorting monster stocks is a very dangerous undertaking when they are under accumulation by large funds.>> Read More
This is where all the thinking in trading comes into play, while writing your trading plan. Once you have created your rules to trade by, you become more systematic and logical in your thought process for executing successful trades. Your personal trading plan will include every step of the trade from identifying to exiting your trade. By having your setup written down in your plan, you will have a better chance of using patience and discipline to wait for your entry. Otherwise, you will use emotions to enter trades and we all know where that will get you. After entering your trade, you will have more confidence because you have back-tested your strategy and know that it has a successful track record and will give you that extra edge over your competition. Identifying your entry strategy will help you execute your strategy in an efficient manner with no hesitation. There will be no guessing or wondering what to do once your setup is identified, you just click and go. Your risk management is also pre-defined so your initial protective stop is set on entry and you know when you will be moving your protective stop to breakeven after the market moves in your direction by a certain amount. Of course, our price target is also known in advance and how we will exit the market at this target. Will we have a set price target, a trailing stop, a time stop, etc.?